Rugby Union tips: British & Irish Lions v Australia, second Test preview and best bets

Rugby Union betting tips: Australia v Lions

3pts British & Irish Lions to win by 1-12 points at 15/8 (Betfred, BetGoodwin)

1pt Bundee Aki anytime try-scorer at 4/1 (Spreadex, Sporting Index)

1pt Tadhg Beirne anytime try-scorer at 9/2 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power)

1pt Rob Valetini anytime try-scorer at 7/1 (Unibet, BetMGM)

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Huw Jones’ disallowed try and the late try conceded by the Lions in last week’s opening Test were enough to bring out the Kurt Zouma (Google him if you’re not a football fan) in those who backed our advice and went for the Scotland international to be an anytime try-scorer and the tourists to cover the 14-point spread.

At least Dan Sheehan scoring was never in doubt, giving us some return on a weekend that summed up the fine line between success and failure in betting on rugby.

In truth, the Lions should have been untouchable once Sheehan had crossed at the start of the second period to hand the Lions a 24-5 lead. But whereas the Wallabies’ subs had a positive impact, the Lions’ changes didn’t have the desired effect, and the match turned in favour of the home side to produce a final scoreline of 19-27. In no way should it have finished so close.

Roared on by a near 100,000 crowd at the MCG this Saturday, the Wallabies will look to take the momentum from that final half an hour in Brisbane into the second Test, a match the Wallabies have to win to keep the series alive, and will look to hit the ground running rather than suffer a repeat of last week’s soporific start.

Joe Schmidt has largely kept faith with the XV that took to the field last Saturday, including an unchanged backline for only the second time in his tenure, with the three changes he has made all coming in the pack.

Spending the week together in Melbourne will also have helped them find the cohesion in the attack that was missing in the first Test, and which has only flickered into life in Schmidt’s reign as a whole. In the 15 Tests he has been in charge, Australia have averaged just three tries per game. This drops to 2.5 tries per game if you take out the first two games of the Autumn Nations Series last November, against England and Wales.

Up front, ROB VALETINI should be good for 50-60 minutes of destructive running, Will Skelton is back to stoke the fires in the boiler room, and Dave Porecki, who would have started in Brisbane had it not been for a late injury, gets the nod at hooker.

Given that so much is expected of Valetini and back-row players have claimed three of the last six tries scored by the Wallabies, and an above-average 12 out of 45 as a whole under Schmidt, it would be fitting if the Ardie Savea-like Brumbies star marked his return from injury with a try. Valetini is familiar with crossing the whitewash at Australia’s biggest sporting venue, having scored there the last time the ground hosted the Wallabies in a 38-7 defeat to the All Blacks on the eve of the last World Cup.

Despite the team-strengthening changes and the Wallabies’ desperation to square the series, the handicap line has only been brought down by a few points to 10.5. Personally, I think it will be closer than that, especially as the Lions have taken a few hits on the injury front.

That said, I still expect the Lions to have enough about them to score more points than the Wallabies, who only average 18 points per game in their last four Tests. What are the odds of Owen Farrell stepping off the bench and kicking the winning penalty? You wouldn’t bet against him.

As for the Lions, Andy Farrell has swapped Ellis Genge with Andrew Porter as a result of the issues that the Lions surprisingly had at scrum time last week. The other change to the pack comes about because of injury, with Ollie Chessum replacing Joe McCarthy in the second row. More significantly, perhaps, is the change to the midfield. Sadly, there will be no Melbourne homecoming for Sione Tuipulotu, who has been ruled out with a tight hamstring, meaning the all-Scotland 10-12-13 axis has been broken up.

BUNDEE AKI, Tuipulotu’s replacement, gives you everything that the Aussie-born Scot gives you, but is perhaps a bit less agile and his passing isn’t as accurate. This could lead to the Lions going more direct in their play, with big ball carriers driving for the line rather than Finn Russell orchestrating the intricate out-the-back passing moves that we saw last week.

Aki is generously priced at 4/1 to get a try in the match, while TADHG BEIRNE, who always seems to be in the right place at the right time in the opposition 22, is well worth considering at fractionally longer odds.

Preview published at 1115 BST on 25/07/25

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