Ross Williams is focusing on the 6pm games for Sunday's best NFL bets, with Saquon Barkley ready to catch fire at generous odds.
NFL betting tips: Week 3
2pts Saquon Barkley (Eagles) 100+ rushing yards at 7/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Saquon Barkley (Eagles) 150+ rushing yards at 15/2 (bet365)
2pts Steelers @ Patriots over 44.5 points at 10/11 (General)
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- Both featured games begin at 1800 BST
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles' clash with the Los Angeles Rams has plenty of storylines and history, but it’s all about one man on Sunday.
Last season, SAQUON BARKLEY had the Rams' defence in the palm of his hand. The outstanding running back terrorised LA, racking up a whopping 460 ground yards across two games.
The Rams weren’t even especially awful against the run last season. In terms of yardage given up, they weren’t one of the ten-worst teams in the league. But, despite a middling defensive unit, Barkley simply had their number and I suspect we’ll see a similar story this weekend.
Barkley is yet to record a 100-yard game this season, but he’s well due and it could happen on Sunday night.
He kicked off his campaign with a 60-yard performance on opening night, from 18 carries, and last week he amassed 88 yards on 22 carries.
His output is trending in the right direction and this looks to be a perfect scenario for Barkley to go off big, as he’s done multiple times throughout what has become an illustrious career.
He had 14 triple-figure yardage games in the 2024 season and, remarkably, over 200 rushing yards in both contests against the Rams. With this in mind, this game represents an opportunity to go bold.
Anything at plus-money for a 100-yard game is solid value, but I think we push the boat out further still. Prices of 15/2 are on offer at the time of writing for Barkley to break 150 yards and this is a very distinct possibility.
Barkley recorded 26 carries in both appearances against the Rams last season and Los Angeles remain a team that encourages the run. So far, they’ve defended 53 rush attempts across their two match-ups, which rather fittingly averages out at 26.5 rushes per game.
The two starting running backs that have faced the Rams so far in 2025 have also enjoyed success. Both Nick Chubb and Tony Pollard ended their respective games with a very healthy 4.6 yards per carry and – with all due respect to those guys, who are both very good players – neither is in the same elite category as Saquon Barkley.
With a game-script that points to the reigning Offensive Player of the Year picking up well over 20 carries, and a defence ahead of him that struggles to contain the top guys, this looks set up to be a big, big day for Barkley.
He’ll need to break off at least one sizeable run during the course of the game to land the big prize of 150 yards, but he’s more than capable. Since the start of last season, only Derrick Henry (22) has recorded more 20+ yard rushes than Barkley’s 17 and no one has had more rushes of 40+ yards than the Eagles' superstar.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ New England Patriots
Two giants of the 21st century do battle in the 6pm window, and I’m liking the potential for points as the Steelers head to New England.
The Patriots had a spluttering start in week one, losing 20-13 at the hands of the Las Vegas Raiders, but they hold a 1-1 record as we approach the third weekend of the season.
In a chaotic game a week ago, Mike Vrabel’s side eventually got over the top of the Miami Dolphins, scoring 33 in a South Florida points-fest.
The game showed the vulnerabilities within the Patriots' roster, but also their ability to score and score heavily when required.
Meanwhile, the Steelers have been equally up and down. They too have a win and a loss on their record but, crucially, they’ve conceded at least 31 points in both games.
It’s unusual for a Mike Tomlin defence to be shipping so many points, but it’s happening, and we should look to exploit.
The four games involving these teams so far this season have averaged 51.75 points so, on that basis alone, there’s some value in the current total match points line, set at 44.5.
It may not be an offensive masterclass from either side, but the leakiness of the two defences gives me cause to believe a shootout may be on the cards in Massachusetts.
Posted at 2000 BST on 20/09/25
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