Miami Dolphins visit Buffalo Bills in the NFL on Thursday night and our Matt Temple-Marsh returns with his best bets.
NFL betting tips: Dolphins @ Bills
2pts Buffalo Bills -12.5pts at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
2pts James Cook 65+ rushing yards & touchdown at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Tua Tagovailoa anytime interception at 8/13 (bet365)
1pt treble on the above selections at 21/4 (Sky Bet)
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Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills
- Kick-off time: Friday, 01:20 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Spread: Bills -12.5
- Total: Over 49.5
Week 3 of the 2025 season kicks off with an AFC East divisional rivalry as the Miami Dolphins travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. These teams enter the game with very different records after the first two weeks of the season. The Bills are 2-0, while the Dolphins are 0-2.
The Bills started their 2025 campaign with a 41-40 home win against the Baltimore Ravens. In Week 2, Buffalo defeated the New York Jets 30-10 on the road. Quarterback Josh Allen has guided them to this 2-0 start and they are currently averaging a healthy 35.5 points per game.
In Week 1, the Dolphins were embarrassed by the Indianapolis Colts 33-8. They followed that up with a 33-27 home loss to the New England Patriots and while their offence started to click last time out, there are some serious issues at play.
Bills -12.5 on the spread
Josh Allen is beyond dominant against the Dolphins. In his career he boasts a 12-2 record, and if we extrapolate out his averages against Miami to a 17-game season, he’d end up with 4,500 yards and 45 touchdowns. The Bills have won their last five straight against Miami – by an average of 12.4 points – and they’re unbeaten at home against their AFC East rival since 2017 (average winning margin of 15.2 points).
The Bills have shown they can win in a close shootout (Allen brilliance vs Ravens), and how they can dominate on the ground (James Cook explosion vs Jets). The Dolphins have shown us an embarrassing loss against the Colts where they simply weren’t prepared, and then a close defeat against the Patriots thanks to special teams’ miscues and turnovers.
A short week will be difficult to overcome their ever-growing list of concerns. The Bills will assert their dominance (flew out to a 20-3 lead by half-time against the Jets), and let their run game guide them home, so we'll take the Bills to cover a steep handicap.
James Cook rushing over & anytime touchdown
This game script will lead to plenty of volume for JAMES COOK, who exploded against the Jets – 21 carries for 132 yards and two touchdowns.
He faces the Dolphins who have given up the ninth-most rushing yards to RBs so far this season – and they’re showing particular struggles between the tackles. Cook has 12 touchdowns over his last nine games, he’s set up for success in this offence.
He’s also earning an increased rush share in this backfield over the first two games compared to last season – over 100 yards at 4/1 is worth some attention.
Tua 1+ interceptions
Through two games TUA TAGOVAILOA has already thrown three interceptions – and they’re worth examining, following some truly questionable decisions.
In nine career games against the Bills, the quarterback has thrown nine touchdowns alongside 10 interceptions, amounting to an 80.5 passer rating.
The Bills defence has yet to pluck an interception yet, but they’ve been one of the best passing defences in the league – allowing a 58.5% completion rate – and they’re certainly due one.
Posted at 1450 BST on 16/09/25
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