Dave Tindall picks out his best final-round bets for the action in Mississippi.
Golf betting tips: Sanderson Farms Championship final round
3pts win Garrick Higgo at 11/10 (General)
1pt Rasmus Hojgaard for Top 5 at 4/1 (General)
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For the last four years at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the winner has come from off the pace after 54 holes. Sam Burns (2021) and Mackenzie Hughes (2022) were only one shot back but Luke List rallied from four behind to win in 2023 while Kevin Yu had a two stroke gap to bridge in 2024.
Hughes, List and Yu all needed a playoff before getting it done and in the last six editions, four have gone to extra holes while the other two were decided by a single stroke. That suggests we could be in for a tight finish again.
Another angle is that every winner of this tournament which has been played at the Country Club of Jackson since autumn 2014 has been in the top 10 at halfway. Those that were this time: Garrick Higgo, Eric Cole, Taylor Montgomery, Danny Walker, Vince Whaley, Tom Kim, Frankie Capan III, David Ford, Steven Fisk and Brice Garnett.
Back to those recent champions and Burns, Hughes and List had already won before, suggesting that, in a low-grade event like this, a bit of previous winning experience can make a real difference. True, Yu was a first-time winner last year but the man up against him in the playoff was Beau Hossler, who had been trying to get that breakthrough maiden victory for a long time.
So, using the filter of past PGA Tour winners, we’re left with Higgo (-18), Kim (-13) and Garnett (-11). South African Higgo is in the driving seat after shooting a 67 (following rounds of 65 and 66) to open up a two-shot lead over Fisk (65) and Walker (67). Montgomery is a stroke further back. The market has Higgo at 11/10, Fisk 5s, Walker 7s and Montgomery 10s.
Two notables made Saturday surges. Matt Kuchar’s 7-under 65 took him to tied fifth - four back - while Max Home went one better with a 64 to vault 34 places to tied eighth. Let’s also mention the one Ryder Cupper playing here, Rasmus Hojgaard. The Dane started relatively slowly but a 66 in round three now has him up to tied 11th which is six in arrears.
Higgo’s strategy on Sunday as he tries to convert his lead? “I'm going to play as if I'm behind tomorrow and be as aggressive as I can be and make as many birdies as I can. I enjoy being aggressive, so this kind of course fits well with me.”
When Higgo won his two previous PGA Tour events (2021 Palmetto and 2025 Corales Puntacana) he came from behind. However, looking at his two 2021 victories on the DP World Tour, he won from two back in both, shooting respective Sunday rounds of 63 and 64.
I think the odds-against price is good enough given the strength of opposition. A glance at Higgo’s stats shows him ranked 4th for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green and 8th for SG: Putting. He’s in the top 20 for all the five major SG stats. Yes, the last four winners weren’t in front at this stage but note that the previous four (2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020) did have a piece of the 54-hole lead. Back GARRICK HIGGO at 11/10.
The other bet I like is RASMUS HOJGAARD to finish in the top five at a general 4/1.
As noted, the Ryder Cup winning twin shot up the leaderboard on Moving Day and is currently 11th, just two shots adrift of the required top five finish.
Interviewed after round one, he said: “Still a bit low on energy, so I'm going to manage myself the next couple days and hopefully restore some of it.” That seems to have happened. He struck the ball much better in round three and with the putter’s status currently ‘hot’ (he’s 6th for SG: Putting this week) there’s a good chance his forward momentum continues.
We’ve seen it many times before in events following a Ryder Cup. It’s easy to dismiss those who took part as being too tired but so often they thrive the week after. If Hojgaard checked the Saturday leaderboard at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship he’d have noticed one of his Bethpage Black colleagues, Robert MacIntyre, tied for the lead.
Posted at 0910 BST on 05/10/25
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