Ben Coley looks ahead to the weekend at the Open Championship, where Scottie Scheffler looks like being extremely hard to beat.
Golf betting tips: Open two-balls
2pts Parry and Detry to win their two-balls at 7/4 (General)
2pts Aberg and Burns to win their two-balls at 11/5 (William Hill)
1pt four-fold the above selections at 7/1 (General)
| |
At around 3pm on Friday, everything looked good for a fascinating Open Championship, particularly for those in the clubhouse like Brian Harman at eight-under, or those closest to him at five-under, like Robert MacIntyre and Tyrrell Hatton. Even Rory McIlroy, three-under after another battling round, would surely have felt pleased to exit just as the heavens began to open.
By the time Scottie Scheffler had poured in birdie putts at the 16th and 17th holes some five hours later, all that had changed. Now, for the first time in his Open career, he is in the lead. The world number one is just 8/13 to win the Claret Jug and move within one of a career grand slam to match McIlroy's.
With Harman a former winner and just two behind, Matt Fitzpatrick in possession of the one major Scheffler may still be left looking for just one behind, suddenly those at five-under look in need of a miracle, never mind those further back. And they do not have the potential trump card of significantly earlier tee-times, which would raise the prospect of Scheffler being caught in weather they were able to avoid.
The Open has been won in runaway fashion three times in the last 15 years, but I don't recall ever seeing the betting this lopsided at halfway. There are only three players whose odds are shorter than 25/1. According to the market, Scheffler will win, and if he doesn't then it'll be Fitzpatrick or Harman. Haotong Li, tied with the latter, can still be backed at big prices despite his lofty position.
Those looking for reasons to believe this will turn into anything but a Scheffler-led procession can cling to his driving statistics and the fact that he's ridden an extremely hot putter, just days after that club cost him in the Scottish Open. If that rings a bell it might be that you're thinking of Collin Morikawa four years ago, who did the very same thing. Scheffler is a better player in a better position. It's hard to believe he won't win.
There is a bit more rain due to fall but not much, which is also true of Sunday's forecast, while there's no more wind that we've had already. Chaos can ensue in an Open when the weather gets involved and nobody is immune to that, but what lies ahead looks excellent news if you took the Monday 6/1 about Scheffler winning. What a price that now looks.
The Featured Groups are in for tomorrow at The 153rd Open.
— The Open (@TheOpen)
It's time for moving day.
Two-ball selections
Without wishing to be predictable, it makes sense to oppose Justin Leonard after his mighty effort to make the cut. The 53-year-old improved massively on last year's 80-78 at Troon to advance to the weekend, leaning on his short-game and links smarts, but it'll be tough to keep competing over the weekend, especially with the forecast pretty good.
Last year both Darren Clarke and Alex Cejka made the cut narrowly then fell down towards the very bottom of the leaderboard, as did a 49-year-old Darren Fichardt who eventually finished last. Leonard would be favourite if such a market existed, albeit not exactly at a short price, and the good news where the draw is concerned is that he's in with a rock-solid but non-elite golfer in JOHN PARRY.
That means we get the right side of 1/2 and on their respective levels in the here and now these prices underestimate Parry. He looks the morning banker and I'll double him with THOMAS DETRY, who hasn't putted anything like as well as he can as yet.
Detry plays with Jacob Skov Olesen, the surprise star of day one whose hopes ended at the very first hole on day two. Olesen is very promising and comfortable playing links golf, but Detry is a step or two above for now and could've been put in shorter than 4/5, before we even consider that prospect of putting improvement. He ranks a lofty 13th in the tee-to-green stats and is developing a good record in majors.
Bryson DeChambeau will do for many after his deeply impressive comeback on Friday and clearly, it wouldn't surprise anyone if he was five or six shots too good for Nathan Kimsey. But I don't think Kimsey will mind playing with him one bit and as we saw in round one, DeChambeau can always find trouble playing this form of the game and sometimes lacks the creativity required to extricate himself. He's risky.
Among the other morning starters, I was quite taken with the fact Francesco Molinari says he's playing better than when putting up a good defence of this title in 2019. Clearly a fan of Portrush, I'd have been happy siding with him against various other players but less so Jesper Svensson, a powerhouse whose iron play is firing right now, and who always has a hot putting round in him.
I could see Shane Lowry being lifted by this crowd after his cruel penalty on Friday and, given that he shot 63 on this day six years ago, 6/4 to beat Jon Rahm earned a second glance. I'm not in a rush to oppose the Spaniard, though, given his fine Open record and the fact that he's been among the very best iron players in the field without getting much out of his game as yet.
In fact, close to evens Rahm suddenly looks appealing if you take the opposing view, that the wind will have been taken from Lowry's sails, so having tied myself up in knots on this match it's clearly not one to be betting on.
SAM BURNS to beat Lee Westwood rates the pick of the afternoon matches.
Burns' iron play remains a huge positive right now, he's putting as well as ever, and the way he rallied over the final few holes on Friday sets him up well for another good major performance. Remember, he was a contender in this last year, as he was at Oakmont last month, so he's improved on what had been a poor run in golf's biggest events.
Burns could just about seal a Ryder Cup place with a top-10 finish this week, I would say, particularly with some competitors in that domain having struggled. Expect a solid weekend, then, and too many guns for Westwood, who has performed admirably but has been struggling to put three rounds together on LIV Golf, let alone four.
I love the way Robert MacIntyre played in round two but Harris English is not a player to be taking on if you ask me, so LUDVIG ABERG is next.
The Swede played beautifully too and Justin Rose looked ragged in round two, ranking outside the top 100 in both strokes-gained off the tee and strokes-gained approach.
Among the underdogs, Tony Finau has a veteran Irish caddie on the bag and has looked good so far. He's in with Scottish Open champion Chris Gotterup, who could feasibly run out of gas but more to the point has relied quite heavily on his putter. Finau's Open record is excellent and bigger than even-money made him the most appealing.
I did look for ways to oppose Haotong Li on the basis that, unlike the other members of the breakaway quartet, this is quite new to him. He's finished third in an Open but after a low final-round and faded having led the PGA early on in 2020, so I don't think it would be a massive shock to see him struggle badly, which of course makes playing partner Brian Harman a viable bet at close to evens.
Li has a big lead in the top Asian market but it might only take under-par rounds from Sungjae Im and Hideki Matsuyama to significantly reduce that gap, an angle which is worth considering, while Phil Mickelson is 9/4 to overcome a three-shot deficit to Westwood in top senior and also made some appeal.
But so far things haven't fallen right to be honest, right down to the fact that Hatton and MacIntyre have seen their chances get worse and worse without hitting any further shots, so I'll stop speculating and see if better fortune awaits with today's two-balls. All four look solid favourites and it's 7/1 and change that they all oblige.
Posted at 2100 BST on 18/07/25; two-balls added at 0715 BST on 19/07/25
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .
