Golf betting tips: Ben Coley's final-round two-balls preview for the Open

Golf betting tips: Open two-balls

1pt Leishman, Wallace and Harman to win their two-balls at 13/2 (General)

1pt Skov Olesen and Molinari to win their two-balls at 11/2 (General)

0.5pt five-fold the above selections at 50/1 (General)

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Scheffler on course for 'inevitable' victory

Scottie Scheffler made just two birdies and one eagle in round three of the Open, on a day when the course played about three shots easier than it had on Thursday. Good news for the field, right? Well, not exactly. Because the world number one, described as 'inevitable' by the world number two, didn't drop a single shot. Not when he was on the side of a bank beyond the 11th green, not when he was buried in the rough left of the 14th fairway. Par, par.

The end result is a four-shot lead, which is one more than he had at Quail Hollow in May when he won by five. It's one more than he had in the Masters in 2022 and won by three. Two years later, the only other time he's led a major through 54 holes, a one-shot lead became a three-shot victory parade as he won at Augusta once more.

Now, the PGA did get close, and it got close because one of the few golfers who can live with even his best produced a Sunday flourish. That day, it was Jon Rahm; for the Open Championship to revive as a contest, the rattle may have to come from Rory McIlroy. He begins the round six behind, not even in second place but surely the one player who can at least make the favourite think.

In some ways, it would've helped had the likes of Haotong Li and Matt Fitzpatrick made further late mistakes to increase Scheffler's lead, but insert McIlroy into the final group. McIlroy has hunted him down before and while only for the smaller matter of a FedEx Cup, something like a birdie-eagle start and then lashing a drive onto the green at the par-four fifth would've made even the most assured Scheffler begin to sweat.

This is what the leader has left us with: speculating about what might've been when the thing is only 75% done. Come Sunday night, he's likely to be one US Open away from a career grand slam. It took McIlroy in excess of 60 majors to gather the full collection. Scheffler won't get to his 30th until 2027. Only Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus have won them all in less time than he could.

The Open was meant to be the hardest to win, a fact reflected in 6/1 quotes before play began. And yes, he's had some fortune: beautiful conditions for the most part, particularly late on Friday; little wind; an Open venue which largely requires players to play the air game rather than on the ground. He's also by far the best player in the sport, which is the highest compliment you can pay given that McIlroy remains as brilliant as ever, if not more so. He's making it look relatively easy.

We're not meant to anoint golfers on Saturday nights, certainly not in this tournament, certainly not when there are major champions in third and fourth, a defending champion in Xander Schauffele who has crept into the top 10. But Scheffler is exactly what McIlroy says he is. It will take an act of god for him to be beaten.

Final round two-balls

As Scheffler leaves us looking towards sub-plots for intrigue should things go as anticipated, it's worth bearing in mind that a top-10 finish gets you into the Open next year. For most contenders, that isn't significant, but for some it most certainly is and MARC LEISHMAN left the course yesterday having set it out as his target.

The Aussie is back in the Open after three years away and has loved every minute of it, bar the slow play on Thursday perhaps, and his eagerness to return in 12 months might be strengthened by the fact we're at Birkdale, scene of his last Open top-10 finish. He played wonderfully on Saturday and can get the better of Lucas Glover at a nice price this afternoon.

MATT WALLACE's motivation comes in the form of the Ryder Cup and has done since qualifying began. We can debate all day whether it's a good idea to have a single focus and remind yourself of it after basically every shot, but that's Wallace and today is therefore enormous given that he's well down the qualification standings and in need of a serious push from here until September.

It feels like he really needs to kick on into that top 10 and then win a tournament in the coming weeks so he has everything to play for, as does Oliver Lindell in fairness. The Finn would love to wrap up his place at Birkdale and could go a long way towards sealing a place in the DP World Tour Championship, too. However, Wallace has hit the ball better, something we saw on Saturday, and his class and experience get the vote.

BRIAN HARMAN hasn't had his best short-game this week and it cost him in round three, but the left-hander can outdo Wyndham Clark, who isn't a natural links golfer. There were eight strokes between these two at halfway and while that tells you how badly Harman struggled playing alongside Haotong Li, in this more comfortable pairing he can boost his own Ryder Cup prospects.

Earlier on, I like JACOB SKOV OLESEN and FRANCESCO MOLINARI.

As touched upon further down, Molinari finished with a flourish here in 2019 and he's been tidy from tee-to-green this week. In that department he's about 3.5 shots better than Matty Jordan, who faded badly after a bright start and whose form coming into the tournament had been poor. Molinari is hardly flying these days but has shown promise in his ball-striking and is a value option at odds-against.

We opposed Olesen yesterday and rightly so but he did rally in the end and that was quite impressive in the circumstances. However the argument for taking just a small chance on him here is all about the man he's in with, Shane Lowry, who would've withdrawn with a stomach bug but for the fact this is the Open at Portrush.

It's been a dismal two days for Lowry since he started brightly and having regularly been seen sitting down for a break in the fairway, I don't mind taking him on based on what can only be an assumption that he's not in prime physical condition. He has nothing but pride to play for, either, so a couple of small multiples involving day one star Olesen are worthwhile.

Betting without Scheffler

It's probably not worth considering straight forecasts if you're putting Scheffler in the lead slot given that you'll get a similar price in the without market. There, McIlroy is favourite and I'd certainly be comfortable removing Li from the equation, as I believe today is when he stops defying expectations and struggles from the outset.

I like the 7/1 about Tyrrell Hatton, twice McIlroy's price from the same score. He didn't get anything to drop on Saturday and bar holing out for eagle has made some clumsy mistakes on the scoring holes, with a couple of three-putts he couldn't afford. He was unlucky at the 16th hole yesterday, I felt, and could be the one to chase home Scheffler if McIlroy's challenge either fizzles out or never materialises.

We're on Hatton each-way from the start anyway and let's hope he, Robert MacIntyre and Russell Henley all stick around, which could yet make for a good week. For that reason I can overlook adding him in this market, with McIlroy a fearsome opponent, but he'd get the vote nevertheless.

Lowest round of the day

This market, available with Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair and BoyleSports, will be suspended at 0830 BST

The lowest final round market is fascinating because Scheffler of course has to be favourite, but there's plenty of historical precedent for the winner to emerge from much earlier in the day. The logic here would be these players have nothing to lose, they've fresher greens, sometimes calmer weather, and every incentive to go on the attack. For the odd one or two, it'll likely pay off.

Last year, Xander Schauffele shot the lowest final round, but the next came from Ryan Fox, who'd been 70th. In 2023 it came from Scheffler in 63rd, later tied by contender Tom Kim (11th), while in 2022 it came form Sam Burns in 77th, later tied by winner Cameron Smith (3rd). In 2021, three high-class players shared low honours, two of them having started the day outside the top 50, the other in 25th.

Francesco Molinari did it here in 2019 from 54th, Jason Day did it from 51st on the day Molinari won the Claret Jug, in 2017 Haotong Li did it from 29th but with Aaron Baddeley next from 75th, and in 2015, two of the four players to shoot final-round 65s came from outside the top 50. So did Chris Wood in 2014, one of four co-winners, while in 2013 it was Phil Mickelson from right in the mix, but the next best was Jason Dufner, who had been a lowly 74th.

Nicolas Colsaerts did it from 54th at Lytham and while Phil had done it from inside the top 10 once previously in 2011, laying the foundations for his Muirfield win two years later, the next two were Americans from outside the top 50, Ryan Moore and Spencer Levin. Finally, if we stop at 2010, we add Alvaro Quiros and Rickie Fowler, 41st and 52nd (although if we keep going, David Howell did it from 64th in 2008, ending up in seventh).

To summarise all this, from the last 14 final rounds, 10 were at least jointly won by someone a long way down the leaderboard, and nine of these 14 saw at least one player from outside the top 50 shoot a score nobody bettered. With the forecast very good for the morning, those up early enough to bet in a market which will be suspended at 0830 BST should be looking right down towards the bottom of the leaderboard.

I looked closest at Romain Langasque, who closed with a 64 in the Scottish Open last summer and loves links golf as a former winner of the Amateur Championship, and LIV duo Dean Burmester and Phil Mickelson, who play together. Burmester in particular has the tools to go very low early on while at shorter prices, Viktor Hovland would edge Jordan Spieth and Sepp Straka.

Posted at 0630 BST on 20/07/25

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