Ben Coley's golf betting tips: The CJ CUP Byron Nelson preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: The CJ Cup Byron Nelson

4pts win Jordan Spieth at 18/1 (General; 20.0 Betfair Exchange)

2pts win Sam Burns at 30/1 (Betfred; 28/1 General)

1.5pts e.w. Mackenzie Hughes at 45/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Jake Knapp at 55/1 (Sky Bet, Star Sports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Davis Riley at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

0.5pt e.w. David Skinns at 400/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10)

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A suitably quiet fortnight of PGA Tour golf concludes with THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, a shouty-headlined tournament which is most notable for the fact that two of the very best golfers Texas has produced (hold on, did Texas really 'produce' New Jersey's Scottie Scheffler?) really are desperate to win it.

Scheffler and JORDAN SPIETH both began their careers in this, Scheffler finishing 22nd as a lanky teenager a few years after Spieth had done even better in 16th, and without them there wouldn't be much to shout about. With them... well, there still isn't, but we are talking about two genuine stars who will form part of the PGA Championship story in just a couple of weeks.

For the first time in an age it's possible to argue that Scheffler isn't the world's best player, not that I'd necessarily take that view, and somehow the man who never plays badly will go to Quail Hollow with a point to prove. Spieth meanwhile has another go at completing the career grand slam, this time on the heels of Rory McIlroy and at a course we know he can perform at.

Should either go there on the back of a win in an event which means so much to them then we'd have a storyline to rival that of McIlroy's return to a course he adores and it's certainly possible, as this is a weak tournament made weaker still by the way some of its supposedly better players have been performing of late.

The course is as bland and off-the-shelf as you could imagine, meaning there's no one way to score. It's long enough without being a monster, wide enough without being an open field, and easy enough without being record-setting. If 'it is what it is' has become the modern player's default reaction to something unremarkable, it might also be the maxim for this place.

Approach play and putting is the most likely winning formula and would have been had Ben Kohles held his nerve last year, but in the end a long driver who was enjoying a putting purple patch won instead. You'd do well to think of two more different players than Kohles and Taylor Pendrith and again, they help demonstrate that this is wide-open when it comes to the skills you can use. How many viable winners there are is open to question.

With Scheffler just a step below his best and certainly made more vulnerable by the course, and with his price being the wrong side of 3/1, I'm happy to oppose him with the next two most likely winners: Spieth and SAM BURNS.

Spieth's comeback from overdue surgery appears to be gathering pace. He has now done everything well in patches, occasionally at the same time, but not quite for four days – although he was close in Phoenix, when finishing fourth on another desert course which, like Craig Ranch, is designed by Tom Weiskopf.

Prior to winning this twice, KH Lee's most notable effort came when second there and it's a decent form guide, but the fact is we don't need convincing that Spieth can play here. He's been ninth and second from just three visits, missing the cut narrowly on the third occasion despite producing another excellent display off the tee.

Width helps, low-scoring is no bad thing and he's a multiple winner in his home state of Texas, so at his best this would look the right sort of challenge. We're probably not going to get his best, but the form he showed when 12th, 14th and 18th on his latest three starts would make him competitive and there should be improvement to come.

Spieth's putter is starting to roll, he's driven it well for a long time, and after his approach play improved again at Harbour Town this tournament arrives at a good time. I expect him to play well and having made him the headline pick at the same price last year despite a less impressive run of results, I'm keen to give him another chance.

As for Burns, without his 13th place at Harbour Town I'd have struggled to build a case but that might just be the performance which marks a return to relevance for a player who also has a couple of wins here in Texas to his name.

Burns drove the ball really well in the Heritage for what is pound-for-pound his best performance at a fiddly golf course where he can't put his power to use, unlike this one. Prior to it he'd been good off the tee in the Masters and with his putter firing, it's his iron play which has been the problem during a quiet spring.

It was better towards the end of the Heritage though and having led the field in strokes-gained tee-to-green here when runner-up to Lee back in 2021, I'm hopeful that Craig Ranch, where he dominated a section of Q-School once upon a time, again proves just the sort of test he needs.

Burns is one of the top five putters in this field and with the course lengthened since last year, I do still lean towards longer drivers despite the fact that Kohles, who is short off the tee, ought to have won. Should Burns produce an above-average display with his approach shots, he'd be a massive threat to all.

With bookmakers for the most part scrimping on the places this week, and the nature of the event combined with Scheffler's obvious threat, I'd rather reduce stakes and split them win-only on Burns and Spieth. To my eye they are clearly the biggest dangers, especially with Sungjae Im having gone home to Korea to miss the cut last week.

Given that Si Woo Kim and Ben An both struggle with the putter and that Pendrith, who has to defend for the first time, also can, I really don't see many obvious candidates towards the front of this market.

One exception is MACKENZIE HUGHES and anything 28/1 and bigger rates good value about the capable Canadian.

Hughes is known for being one of the best putters around but he's actually still losing strokes so far this year after a poor start, which in effect means there's been a lot of promise in 10 appearances since a sloppy return in the Sony Open.

That promise has only increased lately, with 10th place on a long, soft course in Houston followed by third at Harbour Town, where he was among the best of the rest behind champion Justin Thomas and subsequent Zurich Classic winner Andrew Novak.

Hughes ranked fifth in strokes-gained tee-to-green there, just as he had at Memorial Park, so his long-game is in excellent shape heading back to Craig Ranch where, over the course of his last eight rounds, he's shot no fewer than three 64s and two 65s.

That kind of scoring demonstrates a clear level of comfort at a course this sometimes erratic driver will appreciate off the tee and while yes it's largely been built on his short-game, the way he's hitting the ball right now means he's never been better equipped to put everything together.

Those low rounds are nicely hidden beneath the surface, his eventual finishing positions reading MC-14-41, and the world number 53 must see this as a great chance to enter the top 50. He'll be in the PGA Championship regardless, but the US Open and the Open are both on the radar with one more big performance in this winnable event.

Hughes will be especially keen to hold onto this momentum heading to the PGA as he lives in North Carolina, not far from Quail Hollow where he played well last May. Craig Ranch is a fantastic course at which to do just that and he'd be next for me in terms of likeliest winners, right behind Burns.

Knapp time

Austin Eckroat's runner-up finish behind Day is eye-catching given his subsequent win at El Cardonal. There might be something in that link and as well as highlighting his chances, it suggests perhaps that Nico Echavarria could be a factor as he was when not in the best of form this time last year.

Echavarria and fellow Florida resident Eric Cole both make some appeal but I've come down on the side of the more explosive JAKE KNAPP, who isn't far off elite putting standards himself at the moment.

Knapp contended for the Zurich Classic of New Orleans last week alongside an inexperienced, badly out of form partner in Frankie Capan, and while the latter did himself proud it's clear that Knapp was the driving force behind their success.

He's played well for much of this year, blips coming at the Valspar (unsuitable course, perhaps?) and the Texas Open, where his approach play was problematic as it had been to a lesser extent at Copperhead.

That aspect of his game would be the primary concern but Knapp hit the ball really well throughout the first two months of the year, hinting at a second win to follow up last year's breakthrough in the Mexico Open, at a wide, low-scoring course with at least some similarities to this one.

He'd gone off the boil by the time he reached Craig Ranch yet was the halfway leader on his way to eighth, significant not only in that he played so well but because it was his final top-10 finish of the year until he won the mixed pairs event in December. From Bay Hill through to the RSM Classic, only here did Knapp produce quality golf.

Returning to Craig Ranch therefore looks a positive at an ideal time after he got the juices flowing on Sunday, and this big talent, whose putting can spike in a big way, must be a serious each-way player.

Few others made appeal but Patrick Fishburn is another powerhouse who can putt and Cam Davis has much more talent than his position in the market suggests, so both were of some interest at around the 100/1 mark.

DAVIS RILEY though is the one I prefer in this range having sustained his improved form since he landed the place money for us in Puerto Rico, where he was always in the mix at 150/1.

Riley then went on to rally following a slow start and make the cut at Sawgrass, after which he was very popular for the Valspar and hit the frame again, having spent all week inside the top 10 in a tournament he'd almost won a couple of years earlier.

While only midfield in Houston, he then finished an excellent 21st on his Masters debut before sharing 32nd in the Zurich Classic alongside Nick Hardy, the pair just a shot or two shy of being right in the mix heading into the weekend before fading.

It's hard to get a handle on that form but Riley should emerge from it feeling close and as with all of my selections, this return to Craig Ranch feels like it comes at the right time. He used to live in Dallas, knows the course, and says 'this tournament is super special to me' as like Scheffler and Spieth, it was where he made his PGA Tour debut.

Riley finished ninth when the Nelson first came to Craig Ranch, shooting back-to-back 64s after a slow start, and following a narrow missed cut in 2023 was 30th last year, that at a time when his form was up and down hence a chunky 150/1 opening show.

He'd sat fifth at halfway, too, further underlining his suitability to the course, and what's notable to me is that throughout these three starts his approach play has been the one problem. Right now, it's his main strength and that could mean everything falls nicely into place for a big talent whose win last year also came in Texas.

Finally, I'll take a flier on veteran DAVID SKINNS.

The Englishman was halfway leader here in 2022 after rounds of 66-63, then showed up early again on his only subsequent start in the event, carding a round of 65 last year.

Having also been the 54-hole leader in the Houston Open he's built an eye-catching record in Texas and says he particularly likes Craig Ranch.

"It just fits my eye," he said. "I like it off the tee, the greens I'm really never second guessing my reads, which is great. I like Weiskopf designs, it just seems to fit my eye."

The two courses across which he won his three Korn Ferry Tour titles both share some similarities with this one and the Georgia resident, who went to college in Tennessee and played plenty of minor tour events in the south, is another who will be looking forward to his return to Texas.

It comes after two better performances, first when close to the leaders at halfway in the Dominican Republic and then alongside a weak partner in New Orleans, where he and Ben Taylor sat fifth at halfway.

That's enough to go on at 500/1 in places and he's a bet down to about half that.

Posted at 1900 BST on 28/04/25

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