Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Qatar Masters preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Qatar Masters

2.5pts e.w. Jordan Smith at 22/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Antoine Rozner at 33/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Joe Dean at 55/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Adrien Saddier at 70/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Ricardo Gouveia at 100/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Nacho Elvira at 150/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

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The DP World Tour concludes its Middle East swing with the Qatar Masters and frankly, after last week's event in Bahrain, I don't mind the upcoming week off between this event and the Kenya Open.

Following Ivan Cantero for a third week running paid off as he placed just as he had seven days earlier, but the powerful youngster missed the play-off by a single shot after making bogey at the last following a few missed chances late on. That play-off only took place because Pablo Larrazabal, a confident pre-final round selection at a generous 15/2, three-putted the 18th hole when he had two putts for the title.

Sure enough, Larrazabal then lost the play-off to a brilliant birdie from Laurie Canter, selected last time at 66/1 but left out in this weaker event at 20s. Canter, who I've followed pretty religiously since 2020 and who was unluckily beaten by rank outsider Ross McGowan when we were on at a nice price in Italy that year, has now won twice since, delivering on long-held promise. Both times, we happened to be on the runner-up.

I won't hold it against a fabulous player and isn't it great to see someone like him work it all out in their 30s. This game is colourful and never straightforward. For every 20-something superstar there's someone trying to put it all together. And for every nervous maiden who loses their grip on a tournament on the 18th hole, there's a proven, prolific veteran like Larrazabal to show that it really can happen to anyone.

Onto Doha then and the formula here used to be relatively straightforward. Time and again down the years, winners were Open champions or contenders or at the very least players who've shown top-level form on links courses in the UK and Ireland, the logic being that the wind usually blows here and that places an emphasis on quality approach play and a tidy short-game, two must-haves in most Open Championships.

Chris Wood, Branden Grace, Eddie Pepperell, Paul Lawrie, Sergio Garcia, Thomas Bjorn, Henrik Stenson – all are examples of this connection. But you see it too through those who almost won in Qatar, like former Amateur Championship winner Mikko Ilonen, Scottish Open winner Rafa Cabrera Bello, Dunhill Links pair Thorbjorn Olesen and Oliver Wilson, and St Andrews specialist Louis Oosthuizen.

The trouble is that the DP World Tour is undeniably weaker than it used to be and while that has helped produce so many thrilling finishes that we've now come to expect the unexpected, it means we're without much major championship form to go on. Instead, some of the best links clues hide beneath the surface, such as the fact that former champion Ewen Ferguson won the Boys' Amateur at Hoylake back in 2013.

In general I'd say this is less about quality driving than the other three desert courses we've been to lately. There are still four par-fives and a now customary driveable par-four to go at, but everyone in the field can reach the 16th while the ninth, sadly, is seldom played from a forward tee. That means everyone is laying up and with the shallow, raised 10th green especially hard to hit in two, it is more about wedges than the big stick.

Accepting that he can be a little difficult to win with, JORDAN SMITH does look to hold an outstanding chance in what is the weakest of this opening run of DP World Tour events.

With Patrick Reed and David Puig both out and the only Olesen in this field named Jacob not Thorbjorn, this really isn't strong and the two most likely contenders are Smith and last week's winner, Canter.

Both are somewhat similar in the way they go about things, generally pounding greens and left to hope the putter is warm enough, but it's Smith who boasts the strongest record at Doha thanks to a pair of top-six finishes in five visits so far.

As you might expect, all have been powered by his long-game and when he putted to just a decent standard (36th) on his last visit he had a chance to win, whereas the year before his ball-striking was actually a little better only for a hopeless week on and around the greens to result in a missed cut.

What's most encouraging is that his putting has seemingly improved quite a bit over the past few months, gaining strokes in all bar one of his 15 starts since September. No wonder he's managed 12 top-30s in this stretch and for as long as this spell of better putting lasts, it's just a matter of when the best version of his tee-to-green game shows up.

Last week's performance can be upgraded as an accident early in the week left him with a bit of shoulder pain and, from the wrong side of the draw, he did really well to rebound from an opening 75, doing very little wrong over the closing three rounds.

It can't hurt that fellow Bath pro Canter won – the pair are friends and played together in the Team Cup less than a month ago – and we've just seen again how these small things can make a big difference. Larrazabal really ought to have made it back-to-back Spanish winners a week after Alejandro del Rey's victory and three Spaniards made the top five, with a couple more just behind.

There's a reason I've only put up Smith five times over the past four years (about 130 starts) but the blend of a particularly weak field, course form, putting improvement and a strong finish in Bahrain makes him very difficult to resist. More above-average putting and he seems highly likely to contend.

That draw bias over the first two rounds last week is worth inspecting and Adrien Dumont de Chassart is another who did well to overcome it to finish 24th. Having sided with him at Al Hamra and then seen another of these PGA Tour class-droppers, Callum Tarren, contend a week later, he certainly made the shortlist, with his college experience in Illinois sure to help if the wind does whip up as it's forecast to do.

However preference is for JOE DEAN, another Englishman who looks primed to go well having also overcome a bit of bad luck with the tee-times.

Dean was one of the stories of last season, turning his career around via Qualifying School having at one stage been a supermarket delivery driver while still trying to pursue his dream.

He made it all the way to the DP World Tour Championship thanks to five top-five finishes across a variety of courses, showcasing a strong all-round game which at various points saw him rank inside the top 10 in each of the four key statistical categories.

The one thing missing was consistency but that looks like it's coming based on fifth in the Ras al Khaimah followed by 13th at Royal GC, where like Smith he was on the wrong side of the draw. Dean played the final three rounds in 12-under and after a bogey-free second round, dropped just three shots during a breezy weekend.

Third in the tee-to-green stats came after he'd ranked 11th for the same category at Al Hamra and with a top-five approach-play performance powering that effort in Bahrain, he arrives with his ball-striking looking particularly sharp.

Dean's price is propped up a little based on a narrow missed cut on his Doha debut, but he missed a handful of good chances late on in a second-round 71, still playing his final nine in a bogey-free 33, and more to the point this was his first start of the year and first as a DP World Tour member, almost three months after his effort at Qualifying School.

He's come a long, long way since then, even playing well in an Open Championship, and can show it.

Fellow Sheffield pro Sam Bairstow was also on the wrong side of the draw having been a gambled-on 40/1 shot come the off in Bahrain. The left-hander had worked his way back onto the fringes of things before ending round two with a run of four bogeys, but finished off the week with his best round and could certainly better last year's debut 13th here.

But I can't escape the notion that ANTOINE ROZNER has been chalked up at too generous a price for an event he won in spectacular fashion over at Education City a few years ago.

The event returned to Doha afterwards so he had a tough job on as a defending champion who had to deal with a change in course, but after that modest effort he's been 27th and sixth subsequently, his approach work excellent both times.

Significantly I think, Rozner was struggling with driver ahead of both of these appearances and it showed, whereas this time he tees off with that club having been much better again lately, enough to help him to secure one of the PGA Tour cards offered up via the Race to Dubai in November.

That final top 10 in the DP World Tour Championship was his fourth in seven starts, three coming in fields featuring Rory McIlroy, and while disappointing in Mauritius perhaps it's understandable that he couldn't get going on his final start of a long year which went right down to the wire.

Since then we've seen him in the Team Cup, where he beat Matt Wallace in the singles, and two PGA Tour events including what could prove to be a decent primer battling the winds of Torrey Pines last time out.

Mid-pack there and with his long-game in good shape, he now returns to Qatar as a proven Middle East performer (two wins) who thrives in a breeze, and whose approach play is a massive asset.

Yes, his occasional horror show with the putter makes for a somewhat volatile profile and he's therefore a little hard to rate, but I'd make him clear third favourite. Given that he isn't, that makes the Frenchman must-bet material.

Rozner's compatriot ADRIEN SADDIER has been a bit of a quiet improver over the past year or so, delivering on promise which was clear when he contended as a 21-year-old DP World Tour rookie in this very event back in 2013.

Although unable to back-up a third-round 64 then, a tie for 16th proved to be one of his strongest performances of the season. It was five years until he returned, missing the cut during a miserable run of form, but 27th in 2019 plus 27th again in 2023 both confirm that he's well suited to Doha.

Indeed that effort six years ago was his best of the season to date while his more recent visit followed a withdrawal, so I don't think it's unreasonable to state that he's never been in better shape ahead of this event than he is right now.

Last time out, Saddier was 13th in the Ras al Khaimah Championship following a return missed cut in Dubai which was all to do with his short-game. He'd ended 2024 with 11th in the Australian Open and the previous season finished with 19th in Abu Dhabi, where some of the best players in Europe were in the mix and where wind at Yas Links is always a factor.

Since last summer, the Frenchman has been among the most reliable ball-strikers on the circuit, gaining strokes off the tee on a weekly basis thanks to his relentless accuracy and setting up stacks of chances. This run includes plenty of exposed or links-like courses, including in the Dunhill Links, and his strong career record in the Portugal Masters is another potential pointer.

Saddier's sole Challenge Tour win came by the coast, too, and I wonder as well whether the fact he's playing for just the third time in 2025 might work in his favour as some run out of gas at the end of a busy stretch.

Ewen Ferguson loves it here and could bounce back having contended in Dubai already this year, while Takumi Kanaya's run of missed cuts on the PGA Tour is probably a little better than it looks. Perhaps now this arrow-straight former world number one amateur can deliver something which has so far been lacking on one of the main tours, but I'm not sure this test will be ideal for him.

I did consider underachiever Jacques Kruyswijk, who has made a generally strong start to the year and likes Doha, but his run of six dropped shots in five holes during the final round in Bahrain has put me off a little and he does flatter to deceive somewhat. I wouldn't have a windy forecast down as ideal for him, either.

Preference then is for RICARDO GOUVEIA, who is threatening to do what Ivan Cantero has just about done and build on last year's salvage job by sorting out his card for 2026 much earlier.

Both players went to Korea in need of something special and duly found it and we've seen what it's done for the hugely talented Cantero since then, but he's now just a bit shorter than I'm willing to go at a course less vulnerable to his driving and I'll switch to the more experienced Gouveia under what could be ideal conditions.

He has form here courtesy of seventh place in a particularly strong renewal on debut and also has a good record in his native Portugal, which definitely correlates well with Doha. He's playing well, too, and since keeping his card with third place in Korea has been 24th in the Aussie PGA, missed the cut a week later, then contended in the Dubai Desert Classic to begin the new season.

Finishing 14th there was a massive step up on course form figures of MC-MC-MC-66-74 and after adding 36th place at Al Hamra, he stayed on strongly for 21st in Bahrain. All of this has been the product of some excellent approach play and his weakness is generally the driver, which isn't so much of a worry here although nor was it bad last week as he gained strokes on the field.

Seven times a winner on the Challenge Tour with two of them coming here in the Middle East, including at Al Mouj where Doha champion Sami Valimaki later won, Gouveia's performance to save his card when third behind the classy pair Ben An and Tom Kim might've been the final bit of evidence he needed to really believe in himself at this level.

He goes to Doha, scene of his first ever DP World Tour top 10, with a live each-way chance.

Andy Sullivan and Haotong Li round off the shortlist but 150/1 shot NACHO ELVIRA loves it here and there are reasons for believing he could show it yet again.

Three top-sixes in six years, plus 13th and nothing worse than 40th during this run is some of the best course form you'll find and there were hints of it right back on his 2014 debut, when he shot an opening 66 to lie fourth after round one.

Last year's 13th came after a missed cut, he was third in 2023 after six of them in nine weeks, and when runner-up in 2019 he'd missed five cuts in succession, so the apparent state of his game almost hasn't mattered once he's arrived in Doha.

That's often the case with Elvira, because the nature of his game, which features a glaring weakness off the tee, means suitable courses are in short supply. But with two wins to his name plus a luckless second in Denmark, plus a collection of Challenge Tour titles, he's certainly capable of making his rare opportunities count.

Also worth mentioning is that Elvira has been drawn late-early the last two weeks, both difficult to overcome, particularly in Bahrain where there was a pretty chunky bias. Elvira was still one off the cut line until making a complete mess of the 17th, so there were some positives despite it being a course he appears not to enjoy.

With so many Spaniards in the mix there following del Rey's win, I can't resist this Doha specialist at three-figure prices.

Posted at 0820 GMT on 04/02/25

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