Ben Coley has a 100/1 shot within one of the lead in the Open de France, but there could be a big problem: the presence of Brooks Koepka.
Golf betting tips: Open de France final round
4pts Brooks Koepka to win the Open de France at 11/4 (General)
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Punters trying to crack the Open de France are left with a fascinating conundrum even with just 18 holes to go. Min Woo Lee and BROOKS KOEPKA, the two star attractions even if neither was favourite, are tied for the lead and bookmakers can hardly split them, which represents quite a transformation from pre-tournament prices of 22/1 and 66/1 respectively.
This sort of thing isn't without precedent and for me, it calls to mind last year's PGA Championship. There, Xander Schauffele entered the final round a bigger price than Collin Morikawa, having been a shorter price before the off, despite being tied for the lead with him. The theory would have been that while Schauffele struggled to win tournaments, Morikawa was a two-time major champion, proven under intense pressure.
Here, Koepka's record from the front and his collection of major championships earns him enormous respect. He's led 12 times, won nine and never finished worse than third. Two of his three defeats came before he was a major champion; the other therefore represents his sole real failure to date, when shooting 75 in a duel with Jon Rahm for the Masters. Koepka put that behind him to win his fifth major the following month.
There is a caveat we need to apply and it's that Koepka has held clear leads for all bar one of these 12, the exception when winning his second US Open. That's pretty rare and in my mind actually takes a little shine off his strike-rate. Essentially, when he's on his game he's been able to build positions of great strength and then take care of things; it's not so much that he's regularly had the better of tight finishes.
However, Koepka has also won three from seven when one behind and that's the sort of strike-rate most players would be happy with from one ahead, so however deep into the weeds of his CV you choose to get, the conclusion is the same: he is the epitome of someone who knows how to win golf tournaments, rare in his ability to play better, not worse, when it matters most.
Hence while my instinct, as it was at last year's PGA, is to be contrarian and suggest that the reasons Lee was considerably shorter pre-tournament should still apply, in this case I find it hard to get away from Koepka. And that's before thinking about how ragged Lee was during the closing stages of round three. For what it's worth, he's four-from-four with a clear lead, but has lost out each time he's been tied.
All things considered, adding BROOKS KOEPKA at 11/4 is a bit of a no-brainer, with Guido Migliozzi running for us as the third member of that final group having been advised at 100/1 on Monday.
From one behind this proven champion, with form against the very best in the world in the US Open, should not be underestimated, but having not come out on the right side of a tight DP World Tour Sunday all year, forgive any pessimism you may detect.
In fact the last time the cards really did fall nicely on this side of the Atlantic might well have been a year ago, in this very tournament, when Dan Bradbury rode his luck and landed the money at 150/1. It does happen, but remember the star names in the mix that day were Thorbjorn Olesen, Yannik Paul, Jesper Svensson and Sam Bairstow. Koepka is a five-time major winner and in Lee beat Scottie Scheffler to win a PGA Tour event earlier this year.
Marcus Armitage looked vulnerable throughout round three and I'll be surprised and impressed if he turns things around despite being just one back, likewise Jeon Weong Ko did well to nurse his ball to the clubhouse despite looking ill at ease and can't be fancied from two adrift. As such, Michael Kim (one behind) and the promising Elvis Smylie (two) appear the other viable winners and the former might enjoy being outside that final three-ball. He is dangerous.
But Koepka at 11/4 could look a gift if being back in the heat of battle is all that he needs. Judging by the back-nine on Saturday, that may well prove to be the case. He's the one they all have to beat and if anyone else does win this Open de France, they'll certainly have earned it.
Posted at 1730 BST on 20/09/25
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