Ben Coley's specials previews for the majors this year are well in front, but he's keeping stakes limited for the Open. Find out where he's landed.
Golf betting tips: Open Championship specials
1pt T Olesen, T Kim, Matsuyama and Aberg in top player markets at 50/1 (General)
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Olesen... Olesen
A nod there to Iceland's finest export, Sigur Ros, but we're in the top Danish market here to ponder with two men by the same name.
One of those is THORBJORN OLESEN, whose real name is Jacob. The other is Jacob, whose real name is also Jacob. They're 100/30 and 15/2 respectively but having considered dutching them, I'll stick with the experience of Thunderbear.
The reason for that is ignoring John Axelsen (and Jacob Skov Olesen, for now), which I think we're safe to do, the other three Danish players here are powerhouses: Nicolai and Rasmus Hojgaard, and Niklas Norgaard. Power would be quite low down on my list of demands this week, even with the rain that continues to fall.
Nicolai has assumed favouritism after a fine display in Scotland but that course was made for big-hitters and I wouldn't be sure he'll back it up. His work around the greens is a definite weakness and while he's the one I fear most, I'm not sure I quite understand the gap between his price and (Thorbjorn) Olesen's based on that one display.
With Rasmus desperately disappointing in Scotland, where brand new dad Norgaard understandably missed the cut, it could pay to side with the superior short-game of Thorbjorn here, with Jacob Skov, winner of the Amateur not far away last year, still lacking in experience and prone to ruinous mistakes.
Kim over Kim
Sticking with the theme, the top Korean market is full of kids in America like TOM KIM, Ben An, Sungjae Im and Si Woo Kim and I almost agree with the market in that I would make it all about the two Kims. Where I differ is that I'd lean towards Tom and at almost 3/1 that makes him a bet.
Granted he's endured a largely poor year and for a long time, Si Woo had his number in the head-to-head. But over the last five it's 3-2 to Tom, including last week in the Scottish Open and, crucially, the US Open, where Si Woo talked himself out of it after a strong start.
In terms of self-belief it's no contest, Tom you sense feeling like he will win a major, Si Woo like he simply can't, so while I love the fact that the latter is dynamite around the greens and accurate off the tee, the combination of mentality and putting might place a ceiling on his performance.
Kim, runner-up two years ago having shown up well for a while at St Andrews and been thereabouts several times in the Scottish Open, could well develop into an each-way player here if his own putter warms up.
I'd say that's more likely than Si Woo's and with Im's approach play having dropped off a cliff, Ben An poor the last twice and the other two Koreans not likely to feature, I like the price.
Best of the rest
I was a bit tempted to take the two Scottish youngsters in the top amateur market. Without overdoing it, the rain that's set to fall is a factor here and versus players from the USA, Czechia and the Cayman Islands, they might just cope best. Granted, favourite Ethan Fang won the Amateur Championship recently but I'd still be leaning towards those for whom playing in conditions like those forecast is normal.
HIDEKI MATSUYAMA won top Japanese at even-money at Oakmont and he'll likely win it here too. His irons have been red-hot lately, his performance last time was solid, and while there are five rivals versus the four he faced in the US Open, the second favourite has missed 12 cuts in 13 majors including all four in this, one of them at Portrush.
Matsuyama is a class apart and fairly priced at 11/10.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout's route back to Portrush, where he was disqualified from the Amateur Championship 11 years ago, has been a fascinating one and he's struck form in time to be considered pick of the South Africans. The issue here is that two of the next three in the betting have either won or nearly won this, Dean Burmester is a class act, and Aldrich Potgieter won the Amateur a couple of years ago.
Harry Hall is quickly emerging as a Ryder Cup candidate and a big week here could be key. His short-game is to die for, he grew up playing a clifftop links course in Cornwall, and it's a hundred years since fellow Cornwall native Jim Barnes won this. The storyline is one thing but 8/1 to be top debutant is almost big enough, not least because many of the market leaders lack the Open-friendly skills he has.
I expect LUDVIG ABERG to prove the banker he looks in the top Swedish betting, though. Jesper Svensson, Sebastian Soderberg and Jesper Sandborg all look to be up against it and Henrik Stenson would likely need Aberg to underperform. Aberg could miss the cut and win this market and if you don't mind betting odds-on, 4/6 underestimates his superiority.
Which and how you bet these selections will I'm sure vary from reader to reader, but in a busy week with the Barracuda Championship also taking place on the PGA Tour, rather than perm doubles and trebles I'll simply take the four-fold at 50/1. That looks very good to me for a small interest away from the outcome of the tournament.
Posted at 1700 BST on 15/07/25
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