Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Myrtle Beach Classic preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Myrtle Beach Classic

2pts e.w. Alex Smalley at 30/1 (bet365, Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Patrick Fishburn at 50/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1.5pts e.w. Pierceson Coody at 50/1 (Sky Bet, Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1.5pts e.w. Davis Riley at 60/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Antoine Rozner at 66/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

0.5pt e.w. Norman Xiong at 350/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Ahead of the inaugural edition of the Myrtle Beach Classic, when we had to do a bit of guessing, I suggested we might be looking at a longer version of nearby Harbour Town, maybe with flashes of Copperhead. Despite a chunky yardage, I thought this might be as much about precision as power. And then Chris Gotterup, one of the longest and wildest drivers on the PGA Tour, won by six.

And it wasn't just Gotterup's performance which confirmed that I'd been wrong. Behind him were the likes of Alistair Docherty, Davis Thompson, Beau Hossler, Ryan McCormick and, tellingly, Ryan Fox. Like Gotterup, Fox misses a lot of fairways and much of his best golf has therefore come when either everyone is missing them, when they're too wide to miss, or when he doesn't have to hit driver all that often.

The story of the Dunes Golf and Beach Club was that fairways were hard to hit, but that missing them wasn't a big deal if you did it in the right places and, for the most part, were hitting driver and hitting it long. Seldom did Gotterup choose a different club off par-four and par-five tees, doing so at the short 10th and 16th holes – even at the 10th, he was one of several who drove the green in round three – and the longest hole, the par-five 13th.

The latter was part of the riddle. At more than 600 yards on the scorecard, I wondered if it might be a three-shot hole, the type that levels the playing field by creating the kind of wedge contest shorter hitters often prefer. As it turned out, a sharp dog-leg meant players only had to hit the ball about 550 yards to reach the green, often nudging an iron or hybrid off the tee then turning sharply right for a longer second shot.

Gotterup's power came into play on that second shot, rather than the first, and while spelling out these individual lessons might be a bit much on a week where you may choose to read three of these previews, the underlying message is important. Dunes played quite significantly into the hands of long drivers like him, Docherty and Fox, who respectively ranked 60th, 67th and 65th in driving accuracy – that's among just 70 players.

There's always a chance things change, that the rough has been grown or that they play with tee boxes, that it's firmer or softer or windier or calmer, but all things being equal, longer hitters should be at a significant advantage. And what's particularly good about this is that they certainly were at last week's Byron Nelson where, behind Scottie Scheffler, we had a who's who of long-driving, generally mid-tier players.

Perhaps then that'll be a good form guide despite the move from bentgrass to bermuda and there is one player from Craig Ranch who immediately caught my eye: PATRICK FISHBURN.

There's no substitute for straightforwardly good play at any level but when it comes to getting the maximum possible price about a shortlisted player, without having to take on board a significant new negative, there are few things I prefer than to see a player miss the cut by a single shot.

That's what Fishburn did in Texas and as a result, he's thrown in with everyone else who had the weekend off. At a glance, there's nothing to distinguish his performance from that of last-placed Peter Malnati but while the latter will have departed feeling utterly downcast, Fishburn should be among those both encouraged and fired up, desperate not to let more good golf go to waste.

He really did do a lot right, driving the ball to a very high standard and continuing to show promise with his approaches, which he had done in the Texas Open last time he teed it up on his own. In round two in particular, the big-hitting Utah man was peppering flags only to endure a really tough day on the greens, which as ever is easy enough to forgive providing it's not a deep-rooted issue.

Fishburn ranked 80th in putting last season, his first on the PGA Tour, but rather than being an average putter who putts averagely every week, he's one who goes to both extremes from time to time. That's reflected in his results, too: he has six top-10s on the PGA Tour since this time last year, which is more than most players of his calibre, but he's missed twice that many cuts during the same period.

Missed cuts preceded third in the Procore Championship and fifth in the Texas Open, probably his two standout results so far all all things considered, so this is a pretty volatile player whose good is more than good enough to be contending for, and perhaps even winning, an opposite event like this one.

Fishburn also showed plenty of promise here last year, at a time when yes he'd recently been fourth in the Zurich Classic, but his form individually had been extremely poor. It was in fact his first PGA Tour top 20 and while only 20th, he was one of just two of the 70 players who made the cut to have done so despite an opening 73, which had him languishing in 104th.

Over the second and third rounds, only Gotterup outscored him; over the final 54 holes only Gotterup and Fox did, and this despite Fishburn's putter largely misfiring. He ranked fourth in strokes-gained tee-to-green, not only thanks to his typically reliable driving but some outstanding approach play figures, and demonstrated that the Dunes is a good course for his impressive long-game.

One year on and as well as having produced all of his best PGA Tour results in the interim, his approach play has come good of late. There is so much to like here and while we're talking about a 32-year-old without any notable silverware in the locker, I love his chances.

And, returning to the start of the argument, had he made the cut by one and climbed to the top 10, something he did in San Antonio, the price would be a good bit shorter.

About Schmid...

Matti Schmid has been sixth and ninth in two opposite starts this year and having almost won in Bermuda a couple of seasons ago, his record when dropping down in grade merits respect. We've seen it when he's returned to the DP World Tour, too, so there was some inclination to chance him despite a modest set of results in better company.

His putter did warm up during round two of the Nelson and he knows this course from an amateur event as well as last year's missed cut, but that performance when selected at the same sort of price he is now was undeniably disappointing.

On balance there are players around the same price point with greater substance to their form, and one of them is DAVIS RILEY.

He was again among my selections last week and was ultimately disappointing, with his strength of late, approach play, letting him down. However, all other parts of his game were good and I love how he fought back after calling a penalty on himself in round two, an eagle at his final hole just enough to make the cut.

That's now eight cuts made in a row and Riley, whose two wins on the PGA Tour have come in April and May, should drop down in grade knowing he has stacks in his favour, not least his level of ability versus some of those he's now competing with.

Seldom has he played in these and his class was a big part of the case for backing him at 150/1 in Puerto Rico, where he was second heading into the final round and held on for a place. Of course, having backed up that performance since, including with an excellent Masters debut, those big prices have now gone but I thought he'd be the other side of 50/1 for this.

He was down the field last year but conditions should suit a player born in Mississippi and educated in Alabama, one whose form improved immediately when he returned to the east coast in the spring.

While his iron play dipped last week, it was his best driving display of the year and his short-game was sharp, and if there's one aspect of the game from which I'd be most comfortable relying on a return to form, it's his approach work. Sixth at Augusta, seventh at the Valspar and strong generally bar two starts in Texas, better is expected.

At the head of the market, Mackenzie Hughes and Tom Kim are quality operators who will feel like they shouldn't be here. Hughes missed the cut narrowly after a fine start last week having been six-under on Thursday morning, while Kim played better on Friday, though you'd have to be worried about his lack of power at this course, which hurt him at Craig Ranch too.

Neither makes much appeal at the odds, though Hughes is the right favourite, and with Thorbjorn Olesen's iron play poor throughout the weekend of the Nelson, ALEX SMALLEY is the one for me.

Smalley was sixth entering the final round of this event last year, eventually fading to 20th, and that performance had something to do with his course knowledge having once been fifth in the Southern Amateur here.

Having grown up in North Carolina, it's close to a home game and just as last year's performance came on the heels of a timely return to form, his closing 66 at the Nelson was much more like it after a frustrating run of narrow missed cuts in the Houston Open, the Texas Open, and the Zurich Classic.

Between these he started well in the Corales and on the form he showed from January to March, including 14th in The PLAYERS and a five other top-25 finishes, he'd be a massive threat to everyone at a course he knows.

Long enough off the tee and having signed off last week with his best golf since he entered the final round at Sawgrass in third place, this big talent looks ready now to capitalise on the drop down to much lesser company.

Sam Ryder has made a career out of doing that, with top-fives in the Corales, Puerto Rico Open, Barbasol and Bermuda Championship, but he's a weak driver and I can't imagine this is ideal for him despite his east coast roots.

Preference is for the much more powerful PIERCESON COODY, who drove it very well to be 25th last week.

Yes, soft conditions on a wide-open course helped but Coody might just produce a performance similar to those of Gotterup, Docherty and Fox last year, as he has all the tools to do so.

Though down the field himself in the inaugural edition of this tournament, his form was poor at the time, but he went on to show what he can do with top-fives at Colonial and in the ISCO Championship, latterly when losing a play-off while carrying an injury throughout the weekend.

Another good display in weaker company came when 12th on a shorter, less suitable course in Bermuda, and Coody then began this year with three top-10 finishes on the Korn Ferry Tour, where he's already a three-time winner despite having only turned 25 in January.

His putter hasn't been firing this year but, significantly, it did at the weekend in the Nelson where he was better in round three and dynamite in round four. Should that continue here in South Carolina, combined with his raw power then he could do a lot of damage.

Ricky Castillo is a supreme ball-striker who went to college in Florida and could go well but his putter is too big of a worry at the prices, whereas the much more reliable putter of Vince Whaley isn't enough to be taking 50/1 about one who has been around a long time and is in the right sort of grade.

I prefer to chance ANTOINE ROZNER after several signs of encouragement lately.

Rozner actually hasn't missed a cut since the AmEx in January, no small achievement for a PGA Tour rookie, and he's started to improve lately with 33rd in Texas (sixth at halfway), a good Zurich Classic alongside a so-so partner (seventh at halfway), and then 13th last week.

Few performed better over the weekend of the Nelson as Rozner climbed from 49th to 13th, his third-round 63 especially impressive as he led the field in putting for a welcome confidence boost with his generally weakest club.

Rozner gained strokes with his driving and approach play in every round and nobody hit more greens, so he comes here for his first opposite event at a really good time, knowing, surely, that he can compete with everyone in this field.

He's won by the coast on the DP World Tour and in a strong breeze in Qatar so I'll be content should the wind get up, he's certainly long enough off the tee and has also tidied up the big misses we saw last season, while his irons can be excellent.

Perhaps then he can become the second Frenchman ever to win on the PGA Tour after Matthieu Pavon last year and it's Rozner, rather than Schmid, who looks the best value European option.

Finally, though I was keen to keep the staking plan as slim as possible on a busy week and have managed to scroll past Danny Walker, I can't resist NORMAN XIONG at massive prices.

This quality driver has been troubled by a back injury which ruled him out for a while at around this time last year, but he's back to full fitness now and hinting that he can take advantage of the opportunities which come his way.

Last week he shot 69-69 to miss the cut by a single shot at the Nelson, where he striped it throughout both rounds, and his previous PGA Tour start saw him enter the final round in Puerto Rico in fifth place, eventually fading to 12th.

Granted, his Korn Ferry Tour appearances haven't been quite so promising but he's only played in Panama, Colombia and Argentina, where he had no previous form to call upon, and generally low-scoring conditions may not have suited a player who can struggle on the greens.

Before Puerto Rico he was inside the top 20 at halfway at Torrey Pines and missed the cut by one in the AmEx, while late last year he hung around close to the lead in the Shriners soon after returning from injury, so for my money he's just a good deal better than the sort of prices we're able to take.

That he's plenty long off the tee suggests this could be a good course at which to chance him, and having taken a couple of opportunities to win really impressively at just a slightly lower level than this, this former amateur star has to be worth a try after six consecutive under-par rounds which hint that he's getting back to his best.

Posted at 1500 BST on 06/05/25

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