Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Isco Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: ISCO Championship

4pts e.w. Michael Thorbjornsen at 16/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Jackson Suber at 60/1 (General 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Adam Schenk at 70/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Harry Higgs at 80/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)

1pt e.w. Callum Tarren at 180/1 (bet365 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Perhaps we should be thankful for a clean slate at the ISCO Championship, where last year 50/1 Rico Hoey needed to hit the final green with a wedge to win but hit it in the water instead, where a year before that Trevor Cone traded odds-on but lost out by one as our 125/1 selection, where the year before that 80/1 Matti Schmid led with a round to go then shot 77 to finish outside the places.

But those names and those events underline what was a reliable formula: Keene Trace is a fairly long, typically soft, driver-heavy par 72, where scoring opportunities are best unlocked by powerful driving. Trey Mullinax and Vincent Norrman took advantage of the mistakes of Schmid and Cone, before Harry Hall won a play-off that also featured Pierceson Coody and Hoey himself (plus Zac Blair, for balance). By and large it went to type.

Scar tissue would've been a fair price to pay for another crack at one of the easiest events to profile on the entire PGA Tour schedule, but Keene Trace is out, and Hurstbourne Country Club is in. Not long, not a par 72 (at least not when the PGA Tour are here). Not, on the face of it, certain to suit one particular type of player.

I've heard one or two murmurings that strong drivers might still be the way to go, though, and that low scoring is expected one way or another. Those bigger hitters will only have two par-fives to go at, both of them generous bar a creek to the side of the seventh, but holes four and eight (13 and 17 for members) are both short and could be used to tempt players into reaching for the big stick.

On the low-scoring suggestion, I'll reserve judgement. This is among the shortest courses used all year but its greens are quite small, its fairways are guarded by mature trees and are not particularly wide, and there's a creek plus a smattering of ponds to deal with (at least one of which isn't in play, mind you). I'm not convinced they'll tear it apart, especially with talk of it being pretty firm at the beginning of the week.

Who 'they' are is also part of this equation. Seven of the top 10 in the betting are yet to win on the PGA Tour, something only around a quarter of this field have achieved, and a good chunk of those set to tee it up are DP World Tour members who do not possess, and in many cases have never possessed, PGA Tour cards.

As is the case in Scotland, the PGA Tour generally holds sway although the likes of Nathan Kimsey, Adrien Saddier and Jens Dantorp have gone close in these co-sanctioned opposite events and there are plenty from Europe who are capable. The trouble is they're away from home, in football terms, and many have flown in from Munich, whereas many of their opponents have made the much shorter trip from Illinois.

And it's one such player, MICHAEL THORBJORNSEN, who looks worth siding with despite the unknowns brought about by the change in course.

There are only a small number of potential stars in this field and with the current world amateur number one attracting support at prices ranging from 35/1 to as low as 16/1, the latter price about Thorbjornsen really doesn't do justice to how weak this event is.

That feeling is enhanced by the fact that he was backed off the boards last week and played well, yet Kevin Roy (opened twice the price) and Emiliano Grillo (likewise) are now virtually the same odds despite telling us little we didn't already know, even if they marginally outperformed the youngster.

Both Roy and to a greater extent Grillo have to get over missing out on good chances to win at a course we know played to their respective strengths and it's Thorbjornsen, who finished with a real flourish despite making a clumsy mess of the 17th hole, who arguably prepared best of all.

What I really like is that the one negative, the thing that kept me from joining in the gamble at the John Deere, was also answered to an extent. His approach play really hasn't been of the standard you tend to need at Deere Run, yet something clicked on Sunday where he ranked first in the field and put on a display of top-class ball-striking.

Thorbjornsen's driver remains his main weapon and had we been at Keene Trace I'd have been even more confident, but for my money he's a good few points bigger than he ought to be based on what he's shown over the last six to eight weeks and has to be sided with.

Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland broke through by winning opposite events at similar odds and Thorbjornsen, who has that kind of potential, can follow suit. Removing Ben Griffin, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Davis Thompson, JT Poston, Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Luke Clanton, Chris Kirk, Aldrich Potgieter, Sam Stevens, Kevin Yu, Thorbjorn Olesen, Lucas Glover, Bud Cauley and more ought to have left him shorter for this.

Fourth, beaten by a shot, in Detroit two weeks ago and second on his last start in an opposite field at the Corales Puntacana, providing this doesn't play into the hands of the shortest and straightest of hitters, he's the one they all have to beat.

I toyed with win-only to reduce stakes, but if he plays to his potential I think he'll hit the frame so let's have the safety net. Betfred go 16s with eight places, most other firms are 14s if you want the extra, although for that price you can also get 10 places with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair. Double-figure prices are value.

Suber suited to short course

Cases can be made for the winning form of Cameron Champ, the improved form of Beau Hossler and the class of Seamus Power but none quite did it for me. Hossler's ball-striking remains a worry and while Power's first three rounds last week offered great promise, since the beginning of the 2023 season he has a best of eighth, that from the clouds with a Sunday 66.

Even down in this grade he's just not been putting four rounds together often enough to justify rowing in at 33/1 so at around twice those odds I'll side instead with JACKSON SUBER, who at least arrives here full of confidence.

That might seem an odd thing to say following a missed cut but two 69s at the John Deere extended his run of sub-70 rounds to 10 and before all this, he carded a brilliant 63 at Colonial which, like this place, has recently been restored by Keith Foster.

What that's worth who can say but finishes of 16th and sixth on tree-lined courses in Canada and Detroit read well, his driving has definitely improved a tad lately, and we've seen throughout the season that his iron play can be of a very high standard, particularly his wedges which should be getting plenty of use here.

That was true in both those events plus when sixth at the short, tree-lined par 70 used for the Sony Open at the beginning of the year, and these performances have kept him in with a fighting chance of earning full status for 2026. To do that, he'll need to climb 17 places from his current FedEx Cup perch and, like many here, he'll see this and the Barracuda as big opportunities.

Given where he played his best golf on the Korn Ferry Tour (Indiana, Illinois, Missouri) this might be a better place for him to take care of business and having been close to elite level as an amateur, he simply looks to have a much higher ceiling than most of these.

With some of the best recent form on offer as well, there's enough to like at 50s and bigger. At the time of publication, BoyleSports, Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair and bet365 have him at 60/1 with eight places, Coral and Ladbrokes with seven, or you can have 66s generally for six.

Local angle worth exploring

William Mouw was very much an elite amateur and he's striping it without reward, but while I don't mind an iffy putter or two I try to draw the line at those who are in a real mess with that club. Mouw seems to be one of those and while his standout effort came when sixth in a similar field in Puerto Rico, his overall body of work is less impressive than Suber's.

Ben Kohles' ball-striking catches the eye but he too has been hopeless on the greens lately and rather than continue to fumble around in the dark, I'll move on to a trio of selections for whom the location and the grade could unearth significant improvement.

I should stress that this is an angle I am very happy pursuing, one that's served me well enough, one that could've led you to Brian Campbell and David Lipsky last week. But if you like your cases more tangible, to know more than we can at this moment, then waiting for more information to emerge about the course is a viable option.

First then is ADAM SCHENK, who is just a couple of hours from his hometown over the border in Indiana.

One of the best maidens on the circuit two seasons ago when seven top-10s all came on classical courses, things aren't going so well for Schenk right now and he's moving into the veteran plotter category, but he does still have a bit of a class edge on some and has been fifth and sixth in better company this season.

Having made it all the way to East Lake in 2023 he's not needed to play opposite events all that much but he's been fourth in Puerto Rico, fourth in the Barracuda, seventh in the Sanderson Farms, seventh in the Corales Puntacana, and played decent golf on both visits to Bermuda.

Top-20s in two of his three starts in this can be upgraded given what we know about his suitability, or lack thereof, to Keene Trace, and a shorter par 70 seems certain to suit a player whose friends and family will be along to lend their support.

Schenk's Colonial second did come before Foster's restoration but it's still a traditional, tree-lined course of comparable length, the Valspar isn't dissimilar on paper albeit a little longer, and he's also gone well at courses like Waialae and Deere Run.

Missing the cut at the latter a week ago can hardly be called the ideal preparation but he was only two out after four birdies over his final six holes, perhaps setting him up nicely for this considerably weaker event, and I like the price.

It's only a few weeks since he sat 12th at the halfway stage in the US Open and it's many years since he played in something so lacking in quality.

Next is HARRY HIGGS and as well as the location, the grade is key.

Higgs showed last year that he's just a bit too good for the Korn Ferry Tour and, when runner-up to Ryan Fox at Myrtle Beach, he confirmed that he's well capable of winning at this level.

Also second in Bermuda plus in a weak Safeway Open back in 2020, seventh in Puerto Rico and 11th in the Barracuda, he's done well on his rare forays into opposite events with the exception of this one. On that, we'll have to hope he simply didn't take to Keene Trace.

Higgs isn't the strongest driver so the course switch could be a big positive and while he was dreadful last week, he'd been a solid 24th in Detroit prior to it. Plus, his irons have been reliably strong and his putting, rotten in Illinois, has been well above-average three times in six.

Providing he can club down and generally tidy up from the tee this place might suit and Higgs will love conditions. He's won twice in Missouri and once in Tennessee, both of which border Kentucky, and grew up in Kansas. His latest win came on a shorter par 70, too.

Higgs could bomb out completely but he'd been 139th in the Nelson prior to Myrtle Beach, 126th before that decent effort in the Rocket Mortgage, 135th before finishing seventh in Puerto Rico, and even 134th before an excellent 11th on his Masters debut.

The man they call Big Rig will win no prizes for consistency but there's huge upside in this company at these odds. If he brings his A-game to an event which is much weaker even than Myrtle Beach was, he's got as good a chance as almost anyone.

I did look twice at Martin Laird, who has missed a number of cuts by narrow margins lately and says he's worked hard to fix his approach play. That looks to have paid off judging by an admittedly limited set of numbers and we know he's a class act, but he's not been a factor on the PGA Tour this year and looks about the right price.

The final pick then is CALLUM TARREN, who unlike most here has plenty of recent experience of contending, albeit on the DP World Tour.

Still, three chances to win sets him apart even from his peers making the trip over from Europe and I don't mind the fact that unlike most of them, he didn't make the field for Munich last week. He might just benefit from that given hot conditions and the quick turnaround.

Tarren also has the benefit of having been a PGA Tour member and a competitive one, too, with plenty of form in better company. His record in opposite events includes fifth on his only go in Puerto Rico, 21st in this last summer when badly out of form, and decent golf in Bermuda and the Dominican Republic.

Top-10 finishes in the 3M Open, John Deere Classic, Fortinet and RSM is strong for this level and while he's fallen down the ladder somewhat, eighth having led through 54 holes in Bahrain plus fifth in Austria just two starts back isn't to be sniffed at.

The KLM Open had a trappy look to it and he wasn't far off making the weekend so now, returning to the US where he may be more comfortable, he seems worth chancing, especially as he went to college in Virginia and should be well used to these conditions.

If that seems a bit of a stretch, I'm adamant that it was part of what made Cone at ease and Schmid a year earlier was selected partly on the grounds that he actually went to college here in Kentucky. Vince Whaley is from the state and has been fifth in this event; Josh Teater ditto and he's been sixth.

When we're talking about golfers who are not earning stacks of money, who are worried about where they'll be playing golf next year, small factors can make a big difference. They include being close to home, or even just being used to the heat, the grass type, the nature of courses which so often feel of their location.

Like Higgs, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Tarren propping up the leaderboard. But I believe strongly that his previous experience contending on the PGA Tour and recent experience of contending elsewhere gives him a potential edge, and that his loud bangs on the door should entitle him to be shorter in the betting.

Posted at 1100 BST on 08/07/25

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