Ben Coley's golf betting tips: Barracuda Championship preview and best bets

Golf betting tips: Barracuda Championship

3pts win Max Homa at 25/1 (General, 30.0 via Betfair Exchange)

2pts e.w. Mark Hubbard at 35/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1.5pts e.w. Andrew Putnam at 40/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Hayden Springer at 66/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. Cameron Davis at 80/1 (Unibet 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6)

1pt e.w. Paul Peterson at 100/1 (Betfred 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

1pt e.w. David Lipsky at 150/1 (BoyleSports 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8)

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Let's face it, the Barracuda Championship is for us and nobody else. It's the band you know will never be Oasis and that's fine and look at least it's going to be possible to get Hope Of The States tickets for Islington in October, isn't it. Nobody else knows and that really is part of the beauty. This is ours. No need to get wound up by someone in the crowd saying 'oh look, there's Scottie Schauffele!' because out here that sort of thing simply cannot happen.

So I'll take it as read that you recognise the word stableford, that you know how a birdie equates to two points, an eagle five; how a bogey only loses you one and what that means for the dynamics of this event. You might even have read/endured my cause and effect lecture before: just because the best stroke play score often wins, that doesn't mean the format is irrelevant. How did they get to that score and was it affected by the format is what you should be asking.

The field for this final opposite event of the season is actually quite good. Despite Nicolai Hojgaard's late qualification for the Open, there's still a 2023 Ryder Cup player here, MAX HOMA. There's also a Presidents Cup player or two, plus a Signature Event winner, Kurt Kitayama. The defending champion still has a potentially bright future even if he wouldn't have wanted to be defending, and all in all this really isn't bad.

As for the course, that stays the same (albeit nines switched since 2023). Old Greenwood is a par 71 which will play more like 7,000 yards than the 7,480 at which it is listened, because we're in the mountains here at Lake Tahoe, California. It's tree-lined and somewhat tricky, but the rough isn't really a factor, drives go forever, and there are ample opportunities to bag an eagle to go with the necessary haul of 20-plus birdies.

That blend of format, altitude and a weaker-than-elite field ought to lend itself to shocks and there have undoubtedly been some. Equally, it's hard to escape the fact that recent form has been an excellent clue. Nick Dunlap had been 10th two weeks prior to winning at about 33/1 and every winner of this since 2016, across two courses, arrived with good golf behind them. Lately, all bar one had a top-10 finish within two starts.

It's quite difficult to draw those champions together otherwise. In the last two years we've had two young players with big potential, prior to that we had a veteran with a touch of class, and Erik van Rooyen falls into neither category. Neither does Richy Werenski but he, like Dunlap and Akshay Bhatia, was very high up in the birdie average stats, while all these players are good with their irons when firing on all cylinders.

Try as I might to find a reason not to include him, Homa has to head the staking plan.

We all know by now that Homa has endured a torrid time basically since all the way back in April 2024, when he contended for the Masters. Another top 10 followed at the Wells Fargo but it took more than a year for the next one to arrive, and that when he dropped down in grade to contest the John Deere Classic.

However, fifth place there really was encouraging – and this is a grade lower still. Had Homa perhaps putted the lights out, chipped in here and there or stayed on from the clouds to sneak fifth I might've taken a different view, but that's not what happened. He was in the mix, favourite to win during the final round and still close with a few holes to play, and actually his short-game probably cost him in the end.

Crucially, in each of the four rounds he gained strokes both off the tee and with his approaches, the kind of ball-striking we haven't seen for a while and maybe a hint that he can kick on. If that does prove to be the case, he will more the justify what is a big correction in terms of his position in the market. Considering his world-class levels, I don't think it looks at all like an overreaction.

And it wasn't completely out of the blue, either. He missed the cut on the number in Canada and since then, from an admittedly low base, his ball-striking has kept on improving week to week. In June he was third after day one of the Memorial; in May he was fifth at halfway following a fine 64 in the PGA Championship. Before that he began 66-68 in the Truist, and a month earlier he was 12th in the Masters.

We'll see what this week brings but if there's one player who could make his price look silly, who I think just about everyone would regret not backing, it's Homa. The fact that we're in California, his home state and where he's won at Silverado, Torrey Pines and Riviera, only adds to the appeal and I think it's a mistake to consider his chance equal to that of Vince Whaley. For my money he should be favourite.

That honour is shared between Ryan Gerard and Kurt Kitayama but Gerard is going to have to gain strokes on the greens, you'd think, and he's done that once in his last 10 starts. Kitayama also struggles badly with that club as does Rico Hoey, and while Whaley does not, Sunday's ISCO Championship reminded us all of his shortcomings. He's playing well but isn't one to take short prices about.

It was a year ago that Homa roared with pride after grinding to make the cut in the Open and surely he's glancing across to Scotland wondering what on earth he's doing here. He won't be making the FedEx Cup Playoffs unless he backs up his performance in the John Deere but I think he can take care of a lot of things and will back him win-only, knowing there's a definite risk that he takes a backward step.

If this decent field lacks anything it's genuine star potential, perhaps Pierceson Coody aside, so it looks a good opportunity for MARK HUBBARD to perhaps seal his breakthrough PGA Tour win.

Hubbard is from Colorado and went to college in California so the Barracuda, played at altitude, seems a good fit on paper, and so it has proved: he has five top-20s in his last six across two courses and stormed home last year despite complaining of fatigue having flown in from Scotland.

"It reminds me a lot of home, just kind of the topography and the elevation," he said. "Definitely I feel more comfortable than most people at that. I'm watching everybody sitting on TrackMan and trying to get their numbers, and kind of already know mine. So that's definitely an advantage.

"Going to school at San Jose State, it's not too far down the road. I had a buddy who had a house up in Incline Village, so we'd come up here all the time. It's one of my favorite places on planet Earth. It's always a fun week."

Hubbard had gone five months without a top-20 finish heading into that renewal but this time has four of those in his last eight starts, contending for the Rocket Classic having closed out strongly for a brace of top-10s in May. Indeed his only really poor week came at the US Open, which is just a grade higher than him, and I can excuse a low-key ISCO on a tough course that was new to everyone.

He's putting well, which hasn't always been the case, and is a top-50 player in both this year's and last year's birdie average stats, so there's so much to like if you are willing to overlook last week. I am, and while he doesn't quite tick that recent top-10 box, 13th in Detroit when right in the mix is more than ample encouragement.

Erik van Rooyen has form figures of 1-6 at this course and on both occasions was out of form coming in. Following a decent second round in Scotland he's therefore respected, especially with his irons firing, but his putter has been a disaster over the past month and will need fixing.

By contrast, fellow former winner ANDREW PUTNAM excels with that club and looks an ideal type for this, something he proved when finishing runner-up here after his victory came over at Montreux.

Putnam is another who flies in from Scotland where he struggled to compete in an event won by a player who hits it about 50 yards further than he does, but prior to that and a precautionary withdrawal at the John Deere, he'd been sixth in the Canadian Open and eighth in the Rocket Classic.

Both these displays were powered by his short-game and statistically there aren't many if any better on the PGA Tour, but he's also 39th in strokes-gained approach and sixth in driving accuracy, meaning he can be really dangerous when distance is not an issue.

On that there are mixed messages from Barracuda leaderboards, but with the altitude giving him a boost and having struck the ball really well here in both 2021 and 2024, there's absolutely no doubt he can overcome the handicap. Last year, for instance, he ranked second in strokes-gained approach, seventh in the tee-to-green stats, and would've threatened had he not endured a rare off-week with the putter.

That previous runner-up finish came after a string of missed cuts, he'd missed the cut in Scotland last year too, and with rounds of 64, 65, 66 and 67 around Tahoe Mountain (caveated, of course, by the fact we're counting in points this week), he will be relishing this opportunity once more.

CAM DAVIS has course form and is a class act who owes us nothing after two wins at big prices in the Rocket Classic, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt at 50/1 and bigger.

Davis is a two-time PGA Tour champion with a major top five to his name, another favour he's done for this column, and having been first alternate for the Open a couple of times in recent years, he might just be relieved not to be going through that rigmarole again. and in 2022, he was told he needn't bother waiting around, when had he done so he'd have played the Old Course.

As it happened back then he came here and finished sixth before a strong end to the season so it wasn't a disaster, and having also gone well in 2020, he has played nicely in both starts. How much that has to do with conditions it's hard to say, but fifth place in the BMW Championship last year offers further proof that he can adjust to the altitude, as that took place up in the mountains in Colorado.

Since then he's been hit and miss but Davis has finishes of fifth, 13th and 13th in Signature Events this year, was second after round one and eventually settled for 19th in the PGA Championship, and did at least hit the ball better in Detroit last time where his short-game let him down badly. Given his love for that course it was disappointing, but that also means he's drifted a long way down this market.

Historically high in the birdie average stats, I don't mind chancing him despite the argument that recent form has tended to show us the way.

Springer in the market

On which note, Luke List and Ben Kohles both made the shortlist having performed well in the ISCO. Kohles has been hitting his irons to a very high standard lately and almost won a low-scoring event last year, while List's PGA Tour breakthrough came in California, where he used to live, and could build on a first solo top-10 since winning for the second time in October 2023.

Both are respected but I like how HAYDEN SPRINGER is playing and will chance this powerhouse in the hope that he can pop in an eagle or two and build on some promising signs of late.

Springer plays a non-Signature Event schedule so stats like birdie average will always flatter him, but 24th is still impressive and he was 30th last year, too. In part this is because he's a long driver who can putt and that tends to add up to plenty of cheap birdies, the kind of opportunities you really can't pass up in an event like this one.

Ranked 53rd in strokes-gained off-the-tee and 42nd in putting, the most encouraging aspect of last week's 14th place in Kentucky was the fact that he ranked fifth in approach play. That's typically the area which holds him back but he got on a nice run with his irons last summer, including here, and if he can build on last week then good things should follow.

Despite his iron play being inconsistent, Springer has made 13 of 15 cuts this year, including a best of sixth which came here in California, and that power-heavy leaderboard from last year is enough to coax me into siding with him. He wasn't part of it having struggled off the tee, but I'm willing to give him another chance.

We saw last week how hard it is for the Europeans playing away from home but maybe the altitude factor makes this more suitable. That certainly won't be an issue for Yannik Paul, who went to college in Colorado, and he felt he was close in Scotland having been 12th at halfway and seen his iron play start to fire.

He's probably my pick of the visiting team but two former DP World Tour players complete the staking plan, starting with DAVID LIPSKY.

Runner-up two starts ago in the John Deere then 28th in the ISCO, I'm surprised LA-born, Vegas-residing Lipsky isn't shorter in the betting for what is another home game of sorts. The JDC was one given that he went to college in Illinois, and this too should be very familiar.

Indeed his DP World Tour wins both came at altitude, first in Switzerland then to a lesser degree in South Africa, and he was second in his adopted home state of Nevada on the Korn Ferry Tour, too, while his best finish last year came when runner-up here in California.

Although he didn't immediately kick on following that surprise effort in the Procore, two more top-10 finishes did follow before the end of the year and I rather liked how he backed up the John Deere, defying an expected hangover to play well through the final 54 holes in Kentucky.

While Lipsky's longstanding putting issues did somewhat return there, two of his four rounds were good, and from 114th in the FedEx Cup standings this might prove an ideal launchpad towards status for 2026 and maybe even the Playoffs.

Certainly, his long-game looks in good enough shape and, with altitude no problem at all, he's a bet at three-figure prices.

So is PAUL PETERSON, born in Tucson, Arizona at similar altitude to this.

He has some sneaky form in these conditions including in South America and even at Crans, where he's been the first-round leader, and is another who figures highly in the birdie average stats at a respectable 52nd.

First in driving accuracy, like Putnam he's usually on the back foot despite being in the fairway, but with balls flying much further here I'm hopeful he can take advantage of his precision and dial in the wedges, which is what he's done lately having been hitting his irons well ever since May.

Only last week did it really pay off with second place, his putter really coming to life, and I was impressed that he got within one of William Mouw in the end. Most of those left to pursue a demanding clubhouse target buckled, but this gritty operator very nearly defied the odds to reach it.

We'll see whether he can kick on from that but Peterson is just preferred to fellow short, straight hitter Zac Blair at a course where players like this can definitely compete. He's 90/1 for 10 places with the Flutter firms or 100/1 with most others betting between five and eight. Anything the right side of 66s is fine.

Posted at 1500 BST on 15/07/25

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