Ben Coley's final-round betting tips for BMW PGA Championship

Golf betting tips: BMW PGA final round

3pts Tyrrell Hatton to win the BMW PGA Championship at 4/1 (General)

1.5pts Oliver Lindell and Kris Reitan to win their three-balls at 9/2 (General)

1pt Darius van Driel to win his three-ball at 4/1 (bet365)

0.5pt treble van Driel, Lindell and Reitan at 24/1 (bet365)

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Saturday at the BMW PGA Championship was, well, all a little odd.

Viktor Hovland started like a train and came home in an ambulance. Hideki Matsuyama made two sixes on the back-nine, but they didn't matter because he'd already made two sevens on the front. By the time all this was happening, Justin Rose had played himself out of the tournament. Ludvig Aberg's chances took a likely fatal hit at the 11th, when he appeared to find a fairway bunker yet nobody could in fact find his ball.

Despite the various messes the leaders got themselves into, Wentworth always offers chances, particularly on the back-nine, and three players took them. First was TYRRELL HATTON, seven-under for his final 10 holes, then came Adrien Saddier with three birdies in his last four to move ahead of Hatton by two, before Alex Noren eclipsed even that by going birdie-birdie-eagle to join the Frenchman in the lead.

Hovland's closing birdie got him back into fourth, three behind, and as if to add to the madness there's 2,500/1 veteran Darren Fichardt in amongst a bunch of elite or in-form players in fifth. Those behind him, including Patrick Reed, Harry Hall, Aaron Rai, Matt Fitzpatrick and Aberg, are bigger threats to a formidable group at the top of the leaderboard.

Saddier has now ended four of his last 11 rounds with nobody in front of him and is one of the form players on the circuit. Noren is going for a slightly awkward second win in three starts as a Ryder Cup vice-captain rather than player, while Hatton is another past champion here who will go to Bethpage in better form than had looked likely.

It's an enormous day for Saddier for more reasons that the most obvious, the opportunity to win the biggest title of his career just a few months after a long-awaited breakthrough. Win this and a PGA Tour card is his; stick around in the top five and that will be a huge, potentially decisive boost to his prospects, and it'll be a big challenge to stay in the moment with that in mind. He's been a bit of a critic of the way DP World Tour members are treated versus European counterparts out in the US. Come Sunday night, he could be set to switch sides.

I won't be alone in presuming that Saddier comes unstuck. He's an old-fashioned player in many ways, straighter than he is long, and his swing is of a tempo from another era. It has been too easily knocked out of sync over the past few weeks, particularly last Sunday in Ireland when he shot 74, and to shift the narrative in elite company on the biggest day of a career which could change forever with a round in the mid-sixties is maybe asking too much.

Three-balls make it an even bigger task. That means he's outnumbered by two elite golfers who are ex-Ryder Cup teammates, and it reminds me somewhat of when Richard Mansell led the Dunhill Links but had to play with Noren and Ryan Fox, both recent winners. I suspect two-balls would've made this mountain ever so slightly more scaleable but out in threes, with plenty of time to think, Saddier is easy to dismiss.

Noren then is the man to aim at after his win at the Belfry, although he did his best to throw that away on the final hole and I'm not really sure how to weigh him up. It had been a long time between drinks so perhaps he just needed to get over the line to remind himself of his class, but it's almost 10 years since he converted from the front and his only recent chance, in Bermuda, saw him passed by Camilo Villegas in what was a weak field, where that class probably ought to have counted for more.

Hatton hasn't been the best of predators, most of his best work having come from the front, but he's the one I come down on at this stage. His past victory in the event came during the Covid renewal of 2020 and therefore won't have felt quite as special as he'd hoped when attending as a child, and with his family with him this time, it could be that he is able to celebrate with them on the 18th green at last.

It's been a strange year for Hatton, below his best on LIV Golf but almost a major winner at Oakmont and recently part of the winning team alongside Jon Rahm on the breakaway LIV circuit. After a bit of a strange Saturday, one which saw him really come to life thanks to some elite approach play (all eight birdies were from close range), he's the one I think represents value at this stage.

Certainly, I have him down as a more likely winner than Saddier and the gap between his price and that of Noren appears too wide. After two pulled drives early on Saturday he didn't really miss a shot and I have no issue with him trying to back up the low round of the day. The fact that he's the last player to convert a lead here confirms that Wentworth can be a tricky place to front-run and at 4/1, he's the best bet.

As for Hovland, it wouldn't surprise me at all were he to come out firing on Sunday and win this title. But there's no denying that he's looked ill at ease off the tee and it's that which cost him at the eighth and the 12th, the latter a real mess which also exposed those short-game weaknesses we know about. He looks very comfortable with putter in hand and was perhaps unfortunate not to see one or two more roll in, but will need to hit the ball better if he's to bounce back from a tough final dozen holes.

At this stage, I'd certainly be happy accepting the place money for him and Aaron Rai (T6), despite at one stage on Saturday seen those two and Matsuyama take up three of the top four places on the leaderboard. What happened afterwards is a handy if in this case annoying reminder that the back-nine at Wentworth is volatile. Viewers on Sunday should be in for another fun ride on the DP World Tour.

Those betting on the three-balls need to watch out for earlier start times and I've three I like, albeit one is a real flier.

I can't help but feel that Marco Penge must be running on fumes at the end of his sixth consecutive start and the fact that his form has dipped slightly surely has something to do with the emotional letdown of his Ryder Cup omission.

With a PGA Tour card already assured I could excuse him a quiet finish to the week around a course which isn't an ideal fit, and while you might assume that means siding with Hideki Matsuyama, he has very little to play for now. Matsuyama was all over the place on Saturday and though nobody would be shocked to see him turn it around, his driver has been a problem all year.

This leaves us with the neat and tidy DARIUS VAN DRIEL, far from a flashy golfer but one who has made very few mistakes this week and who could just stay out of trouble as the other two find it.

Given his standing in the game and the fact that he's reached his ceiling, we're getting a big price versus two better players, but ones who can produce that big miss that Wentworth penalises heavily.

Penge's scores have regressed with each day and he is one I am happy taking on here. Ideally that would've been with a solid alternative, but having watched Matsuyama hack it all over the course and lose all chance to convert his halfway lead, short prices aren't worth the risk.

Van Driel is in primarily as a small-stakes single but KRISTOFFER REITAN and OLIVER LINDELL are more confident picks.

Both are in the battle for PGA Tour cards and Reitan could secure his with a strong performance. Unlike Saddier that shouldn't be a big issue as he's a very, very short price to get one regardless, so hopefully he can go out and just about get the job done with a sub-70 round.

The impressive Norwegian was outplayed by Guido Migliozzi on Saturday, but Migliozzi would never be one to trust and we saw when he went out of bounds on 17 that a wild drive is never too far away. Reitan's form is much stronger and has been all year.

I'd be more worried about Tom Vaillant in actual fact and he'd love to end on a high ahead of next week's Open de France at a course where he has fond memories, but for the second day running he finished poorly and the Frenchman isn't one to fear.

Lindell meanwhile plays with Adrian Otaegui and Francesco Laporta, two solid, accurate players more in the van Driel mould. Again, Lindell's form of late has far more substance to it than that of his playing partners, and he produced his best golf of the week over the closing holes of round three.

The talented Finn is on the outside looking in when it comes to PGA Tour cards but has been one of the most reliable golfers on the DP World Tour for months now. That's a nice profile for a three-ball bet and we'll double him with Reitan, with a top-up treble just in case.

Posted at 1940 BST on 13/09/25

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