While a new contract for Mohamed Salah should’ve been a formality given his form last season, there was still some uncertainty over his future heading into the final few months of Liverpool’s title winning campaign.
The Reds aren’t necessarily famed for rewarding players in their 30s with new deals.
It has to make financial sense for the club and there was, despite Salah netting 29 goals and assisting 18 times on his way to a fourth Golden Boot, a feeling that the club might part ways with their No11 at the end of the season.
It isn’t smart money to stick a 33-year-old on a reported £350,000-per-week. The fact Sporting Direction Richard Hughes and CEO of Football Michael Edwards signed off on this was a clear indication that the Reds felt that they had a plan to prolong Salah’s stint at the top.
They aren’t the sort to let sentiment get in the way of business.
Yet now, as we near the start of November, the decision to extend Salah’s deal is a big talking point.
His goal against Brentford on Saturday evening was his first open play goal in the Premier League since the opening day win over Bournemouth. The Reds suffered a fourth successive defeat in the English top-flight and now trail leaders Arsenal by seven points.
At this stage of the season last year, Salah had six goals and five assists to his name. This time around, he’s on three goals and two assists. Where last term, he was delivering in the big games for the Reds, involving himself in goals against Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal, he’s blanked in the same games.
His goals this term have come against Bournemouth, Burnley and Brentford.
Without him in the starting XI, Slot’s side hit five past Eintracht Frankfurt in the Champions League. This further fuelled the idea that the No11 should be benched in the short-term.
Him missing big chances in losses to Crystal Palace (two), Chelsea (one), Manchester United (one), and Brentford (two) hasn’t helped the optics either. Neither did his decision to ignore Florian Wirtz during the win in Germany when the No7 effectively had an open goal to pass the ball into.
Fans are fickle though.
These acts of perceived selfishness are only a problem because he’s no longer scoring as freely as he once was and Liverpool are no longer winning games.
Salah has always been this player. The very best attackers are. It’s why he’s a four-time Golden Boot winner and has 249 goals for the Reds.
The truth is Salah is one of the least selfish volume attackers though. It’s why he’s racked up so many assists over the years.
If you look at his goals for the champions throughout his time on Merseyside, you’d probably be able to make the case that he should’ve passed to a teammate a majority of the time.
You can’t pick and choose when selfishness is a bad trait. Salah is selfish but he could be a lot more selfish than he actually is.
The issue isn’t that Salah is now out for himself. Despite suggestions online, this isn’t a case of him being threatened by the new summer arrivals either.
And before anyone thinks it, no, he’s not finished at the top level.
The problem is that his misses now matter more than previously because he’s getting fewer opportunities. To compound things further, the chances he is getting are lower value ones.
For example, last season, the 33-year-old was averaging 3.5 shots per 90 in the Premier League and he had a non-penalty expected goals (npxG) per 90 average of 0.49. This season, he’s averaged 2.2 shots per 90 and his non-penalty xG has halved.
Not only is he averaging fewer shots but they’re coming from worse areas. That’s shown in the data. Salah has gone from having an xG per shot average of almost 0.15 to having an xG per shot average of 0.11.
The difference seems minimal but given the volume we’re looking at over the course of a season, it adds up.
The new-look Liverpool shape has him seeing less of the ball in general - touches are down from 50 per 90 to 42, while he’s nowhere near as much of a creative threat.
Last season, he had an expected assists (xA) average of 0.24 and after the Brentford game, his xA average is 0.13.
He’s not as progressive as a dribbler either. His success has dropped from 45% to 17%. He’s picking the ball up in worse areas of the pitch, with more players around him, and struggling as a result of this.
Liverpool have gone from having Trent Alexander-Arnold getting the ball to Salah as quickly as possible to a slow build-up which sees him outnumbered when he does eventually pick up possession.
Against Brentford, Slot tried something different with the shape. Salah was effectively paired in attack with Hugo Ekitike.
On paper, it wasn’t a disaster. The No11 had the joint most shots in the game (five) and only Igor Thiago had a higher expected goals (xG) total in the game, and that was with the Brentford No9 taking penalty.
In reality, Salah was feeding off of scraps for the majority of the game. Of those five shots, three arrived in the final 10 minutes and he had just one in the opening hour of the game. He struggled to get involved. Liverpool struggled to get him involved.
This has been a pattern all season. The champions aren’t seem to be able to get the best out of their talisman. He’s suffering as a result of this. The team are suffering as a result of this.
If this was the plan for the team, why renew Salah? He was always going to be a square peg in a round hole, and an expensive one at that. If this wasn’t the plan, what has gone wrong for this to now be happening?
This isn’t a Salah issue. This is very much a Liverpool problem.
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