Football betting tips: UEFA Super Cup
1.5pts Under 3.5 cards in 90 minutes at 10/11 (General)
0.5pt Tottenham to win on penalties at 17/2 (bet365)
0.5pt PSG to win on penalties at 15/2 (bet365)
*All bets in 90 minutes
It doesn't get much tougher for Thomas Frank's first proper game as Tottenham boss.
The European champions in the UEFA Super Cup. A big spectacle for everyone to see.
It could be embarrassing, or it could lay the foundation for people to take the reigning Europa League champions seriously.
Either way, it's going to be an uphill battle. The Champions League winner has won the Super Cup on all of the last six occasions, and 10 of the last 11.
Spurs do have a potential fitness advantage after having the summer off, compared to PSG's gruelling run to the Club World Cup final in the heat of the US, so i'm not writing them off.
But, we just haven't seen anywhere near enough of them under Frank to make a pro-Spurs play.
They did tempt me at 6/1 though. That's a big price for a one-off game at a neutral venue, but I just don't know if they'll create enough.
What are the best bets
To be honest, most of these recent Super Cup's have felt like a pre-season friendly for both sides, being played at a slow pace.
That has resulted in a dearth of both goals and cards. All of the last six editions have gone Under 2.5 Goals, while four of the last six have gone UNDER 3.5 CARDS and that's the first bet of this preview.
A slower pace means less snapping into tackles, which means less fouls, while the referees have generally been more lenient in these showpieces.
Last season's showdown between Real Madrid and Atalanta saw four cards, but the previous three all had low card counts, and the referee appointment here is pleasing.
Joao Pinheiro is the man with the whistle and he averaged 4.06 cards across all competitions last season, but in his 10 European outings his average dropped to just 3.1.
Thomas Frank's Brentford side were a low-card team last season, collecting just 1.63 per game. PSG's Champions League games saw just 3.16 cards per game last season too.
Value in the distance
Now, stay with me here. I think there is a good chance that this game goes the distance.
I've already said I think Spurs are overpriced but can't see them winning in 90 minutes, but instead of backing them in the double chance market at 15/8, we can get more value by splitting smaller stakes on PSG TO WIN ON PENALTIES and TOTTENHAM TO WIN ON PENALTIES at 15/2 and 17/2 respectively.
This looks a great avenue for a number of reasons, the main one being that there will be no extra-time played should the game end all square, it'll be straight to penalties.
The second reason is that I think Frank will have his side set up in a very disciplined fashion, and that could lead to another low-scoring edition of this final, which in turn brings the draw into play.
It also is worth pointing out that PSG are coming into this game stone cold.
They only returned to training a week ago and haven't played a single friendly to get back up to speed following their Club World Cup mauling by Chelsea, so we shouldn't expect them to be at the swashbuckling best.
And finally, while the Champions League winners have dominated this competition, the Europa League winners have taken the game the distance regularly.
Seven of the last 10 UEFA Super Cup's have finished as draws after 90 minutes.
Let's hope for a repeat here, and ultimately, let's hope PSG still have at least one sandal on.
Odds correct at 2200 BST (12/08/25)
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