Tom Carnduff picks out his best EFL outright and top goalscorer tips, predictions and best bets from the Championship, League One and League Two, while also having a little dip into the German second tier.
Football betting tips: EFL, 2. Bundesliga
Championship
1pt e.w. Mihailo Ivanovic to be top goalscorer at 28/1 (Betfred 1/4 1-5)
1pt e.w. Mathias Kvistgaarden to be top goalscorer at 40/1 (bet365 1/4 1-4)
1pt e.w. Millwall (+24 handicap) to win the Championship at 18/1 (bet365, William Hill 1/4 1-4)
League One
1pt e.w. Malik Mothersille to be top goalscorer at 33/1 (bet365 1/4 1-4)
1pt e.w. Stockport (+10 handicap) to win League One at 15/1 (bet365 1/4 1-4)
2. Bundesliga
2pts Hannover to win the 2. Bundesliga at 9/1 (General)
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Take your pick when it comes to clichés to mark the return of the football season.
Like a kid in a sweet shop, or how about one on Christmas Eve? I've accepted that a new campaign does bring about child-like excitement for me, even in my old and (very) miserable state.
It's the fascination with the near-infinite storylines we're engrossed in over the next 10 months or so.
And then there's the obsession with trying to solve the 1000-piece puzzle with just three or four of them in place. We sort of think we know what the picture is but we never had the box and, as ever, there will probably be at least one piece absent from the pack
Tom's tipping record
- 2024/25: +54.11pts (ROI: +12%)
- 2023/24: -31.20pts (ROI -9%)
- 2022/23: +18.35pts (ROI +5%)
Yet that's the fun of it all. I love the antepost markets because they deliver so much potential. That works both ways too.
You can back an outsider and it pays off, but you could also take something at favouritism and it goes wrong. While not ideal for staking it at least gives you an investigation to embark on to find the answers.
Last season's anteposts went well. Raphinha nailed the assists in the Champions League for returns at 33/1, while Joel Piroe grabbed the Sky Bet Championship's Golden Boot having been backed to do so at 16s in October.
On to the latest edition of The Football then. I had a number of picks to go at but trimmed them down to the following shortlist - perhaps the others will appear in various forms over the next few weeks.
Millwall man can make his mark
Last season's pre-season selection in this market was an absolute disaster, although salvaged by a pick in October who ultimately went on to scoop the accolade.
Mateo Joseph did indeed start as Leeds' main striker but couldn't nail down a spot in a side that ultimately achieved 100 points. Joel Piroe came in and his lowly 19 goals secured the prize.
It's not often we see the league winners also have their forward wrap up this individual award; I'm keeping this in mind.
Let's start with Millwall who I'm placing just outside the play-off positions this time around, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them sneak in, and taking their striker MIHAILO IVANOVIC TO BE TOP GOALSCORER at 28/1.
The 20-year-old netted 12 in his debut season at the Den yet seven of those came across his final eight starts as he firmly established himself as a starter under Alex Neil.
I'm fully expecting Ivanovic to be a much-talked about player next summer. Everything is there in terms of the potential for a move up the leagues.
A young striker with a clear presence in the air and the ability to strike from range if required. The variety of ways in which he can score will not only advance his own prospects but also Millwall's play-off potential.
My one concern about this pick is just how many Millwall can score this season. They weren't prolific in finding the net under Neil and you'd probably be best placing them on the lower end of the 'average' scale.
But then it's not unrealistic to expect one player to contribute around 30% of their team's goals.
Let's say Millwall float around the 50/55 goals marker this season, Ivanovic would score around 17 on a 30% contribution of their overall tally. That'd have earned you a top four spot in the top goalscorer running last time out.
Oh and Ivanovic converted the last penalty they were awarded - that the only goal of the game in a 1-0 success over Stoke - back in March so he could keep those duties.
Swooping in to the Canaries
Sticking with this second-tier market takes us to Norwich - a team who I fancy to be in that top six under the talented Liam Manning's guidance.
He got an average Bristol City squad into the play-offs last season and a new challenge in the Canaries arguably presents a better chance of reaching the Premier League in the long run.
Borja Sainz represents a significant departure, as will Josh Sargent should he go too, yet they've looked to reinvest some of the significant funds raised from these sales in the market.
One of those is forward MATHIAS KVISTGAARDEN and I'm willing to take the 40/1 on him hitting the ground running by securing the golden boot.
The Danish forward intrigues me. A £7million fee shows how highly the hierarchy at Carrow Road rate him and he has the potential to return a prolific campaign.
He seems slightly chaotic - but in a good way. Kvistgaarden possesses a wonderful ability to get the ball out of his feet quickly in tight situations. That's led to goals coming during his time at Brondby.
The Denmark international also anticipates well. A number of his Brondby goals came from attacking the back post to convert from close range - so late in fact that defenders believed it was going out for a goal kick.
Kvistgaarden scored 23 in 38 across all competitions last season, adding in seven assists as well. He featured 24 times as a centre-forward, scoring 16.
Manning's Bristol City scored 59 last season. If we take around 60 as a marker for a repeat with Norwich, Kvistgaarden's returning 18 at a 30% contribution rate.
His recent injury record is worth considering, especially with the high volume of games in the Championship, but I'm still willing to back him for a good campaign given the prices available.
Delight at the Den
Back to Millwall because a trip around the outright markets offers a bit of value on Neil's men.
This is the first of my trips in the seasonal handicap betting and I'm happy enough with the +24 POINTS available at 18/1.
Last season, they were +30 yet we've seen significant improvement under current management. That led to them finishing sixth in the market but I don't envisage a similar battle at the top where two teams get 100 points and a third had the potential to do the same had it not been for a bad week.
There are questions about every team, of course, but more so on the frontrunners in terms of the starts given in the market.
How will Ipswich and Southampton react to life back in the second tier? Will Sheffield United's new approach see them go backwards? Do Birmingham need a season to adjust as they move up a league? What's actually going to happen with Leicester?
Millwall look the best of the bunch in their area of this market. Bristol City (+22) will find it difficult to repeat last season's showing without Manning while some fancy Watford (+26) to be worrying about potential relegation trouble.
Based on last season's showing following Neil's arrival, a full campaign with similar returns would have seen them in those play-off positions. They look like they have a squad capable of doing it.
We've already discussed Ivanovic's potential but there's others such as Casper De Norre and Japhet Tanganga who can enjoy strong campaigns again.
While they don't look like they'll have enough to truly trouble those at the top, this squad, under current management, should have involvement in that play-off picture again.
Worth every penny of the record fee?
Once again, League One provides us with some fascinating questions to consider as we embark on a new campaign. I find it's usually the one division from the three which leaves you wondering the most.
A team fancying their chances of success will be Stockport, although the bookmakers give five other sides a better chance of lifting the title.
I think they can break into that top two and the summer business to add to an already talented squad suggests they may well be feeling the same.
A club record fee for MALIK MOTHERSILLE could see him return a top goalscorer accolade with 33/1 available.
Mothersille netted 12 when featuring for a struggling Peterborough side last season and his ability to play in a variety of positions makes him an attractive option in this market.
We await to see just how Stockport will look to utilise him but he's demonstrated strong finishing from his two seasons of first team football at Posh.
And that's worth noting. He's only 21. Yet the 20 goal involvements return across 45 League One appearances - 37 of which were starts - suggest he can hit another level in a better side.
While he may not necessarily have the penalty duties as he did at London Road, his qualities are enough to deliver goals from open play.
With Dave Challinor's side netting 72 goals last time around, there should be plenty of opportunities for Mothersille to strike throughout the course of the campaign.
Take Stock of County
Let's stick with Stockport, shall we?
The fact that five other teams are more fancied for the title has had its impact on the handicap market. Initially, my eye was on the 14/1 for them to finish top but I think this area presents slightly better value.
STOCKPORT +10 is down from the +16 they were handed last season when finishing third in the market and there looks to be a bit of value in taking it at 15s.
Unsurprisingly, Birmingham won it despite being the Scratch but we shouldn't see a team get near their 111 points for a while.
And then there's the rest of the market not particularly offering a generous enough head start to those with the potential to upset. Leyton Orient, for example, were +24 when finishing as beaten play-off finalists (they finished fourth in the market).
Last season, nine teams were made +24 or higher, the season before it was eight, whereas this time around you've only got five to choose from. A reminder that four teams get relegated from this league.
It feels like Stockport are being underestimated completely this season for a club who ran Wrexham close in the race for automatic promotion last time out.
Sure, County have had a turnaround of players but this is still a very competitive squad aided by additions and the potential for a couple of other significant moves to happen before the window closes.
Even some slight regression from the 87 points secured last season gives them a strong chance in the market on +10, alongside the starts handed to others.
All Hann's on deck
We claim that the Sky Bet Championship is the most unpredictable league in the world but Germany's own second tier - the 2. Bundesliga - presents a good challenge to that claim.
You don't get runaway leaders here. It's usually a couple of wins in between the title winners and the one settling for a play-off position (third-highest here plays third-lowest from the top league over a two-legged tie).
That makes it somewhat difficult to get involved in the outright markets. Or, you could argue, it does potentially present some value if you can pick out the right one.
At 9/1, I'm settling on HANNOVER TO WIN THE 2. BUNDESLIGA.
The club will be hoping for some coaching stability and they seemed to have made the right move in opting for former Magdeburg head coach Christian Titz. He's got a good squad at his disposal to mount a Bundesliga charge.
Magdeburg's previous campaign saw them finish fifth and just five points off the play-off spot. It's a club that have defied expectations throughout his spell in charge.
They may have lost Nicolò Tresoldi for a not-insignificant £7m fee to Belgian outfit Club Brugge - the Germany under-21 international netted seven times last season - but that's been reinvested in a variety of positions.
Hey, Mustapha ! 👋
— Hannover 96 (@Hannover96)
Der Offensivspieler wechselt ablösefrei vom englischen Zweitligisten Plymouth Argyle, wo er in der letzten Saison auf 16 Torbeteiligungen in der Championship kam, zu uns nach Hannover. ⬇️ ⚫️⚪️💚
Mustapha Bundu joins from Plymouth after a Championship campaign which delivered ten goals and six assists. He's one of a number of arrivals - the Lower Saxony club hitting double figures for incomings under their new manager.
You can add Celtic's Maik Nawrocki as a loan arrival to the lengthy list. Midfielder Waniss Taïbi's move from French outfit Rodez commanded a seven-figure fee.
Ralf Becker's appointment as sporting director a couple of months ago suggests a total reset at the club with the aim of being promoted this season too.
It may well take some time for all of these elements to come together. If they do though, Hannover have every chance of ending their seven-year exile from the top-flight.
Odds correct at 1730 BST (27/07/25)
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