The first international break of the campaign is the bane of the EFL schedule and even though some of the action continues in the League’s One and Two, it provides a good opportunity to take stock on the starts to each division.
In the context of This Weeks Acca, I was interested to find out what’s been the most reliable division so far this campaign for punting on the favourites. What league do the short priced favourites usually deliver and in what league should we avoid the shorties in the upcoming weeks?
We’ve made five accas so far and although we have had one winner, we’ve had two stinkers (just one correct result) so I want to know where to pin the blame.
I’ve had a look at every league game so far across all three EFL leagues and looked at how many odds-on favourites have actually gone on to win.
Odds at kick-off via Oddsportal.
Championship
- Total odds-on favourites: 20
- Average odds (implied % chance): 1.74 (57.5%)
- Won (%): 8 (40%)
- Drawn (%): 8 (40%)
- Lost (%): 4 (20%)
The Championship has been living up to its reputation as the most unpredictable league in the world so far. A cliche, I thought it was beginning to shake recently with the help of parachute payments.
Bristol City (4/1) and Millwall (3/1) are two of the biggest priced winners, both beating Sheffield United and highlighting how the bookies have overestimated the Blades in the opening few weeks of the season.
Preston North End’s victories over the recently relegated Ipswich and Leicester are another couple of the eye-catching results in the second tier.
Interestingly, of the 20 sides that went off odds-on, only two managed to win by a two goal margin or more (shown bullet pointed below). The 40% win percentage of odds-on teams is comfortably the worst in the EFL and considerably worst then the implied win probability of the odds.
League One
- Total odds-on favourites: 26
- Average odds (implied % chance): 1.73 (57.8%)
- Won (%): 20 (77.0%)
- Drawn (%): 3 (11.5%)
- Lost (%): 3 (11.5%)
League One is the league we need to focus our attention on This Weeks Acca because it is where the favourites often deliver.
Only six of the sides to go off odds-on have failed to win. Of the 20 winners, 80% of the victories have come to nil and 40% have come by a two or more goal margin.
Northampton’s recent win at Leyton Orient (15/4) and Exeter’s 1-0 win at Wycombe (4/1) are two of the biggest priced shocks of the campaign so far.
League Two
- Total odds on favourites: 27
- Average odds (implied % chance): 1.74 (57.5%)
- Won (%): 16 (59.2%)
- Drawn (%): 7 (26.0%)
- Lost (%): 4 (14.8%)
This Weeks Acca listeners will be aware of the peril League Two punting brings with its unpredictable nature.
Ahead of match day six, Chesterfield were successfully swerved on the podcast at odds-on as they drew 2-2 at home to Crawley. The less said about the actual acca the better though.
The Spireites were one of 10 home sides that failed to win last weekend and it had me wondering if the short priced favourites should be avoided all together in the fourth tier this season. Six games into the campaign and I am surprised to learn this division hasn’t been as unpredictable as it often feels.
So far, 27 sides have gone off at odds-on and 16 of those teams have gone on to win. All told, the favourites have slightly outperformed the implied probability of their average odds.
Based on this, when looking for favourites to get onside, the Championship is best avoided, League One is a happy hunting ground and League Two isn’t as dangerous as expected.
I am going to be turning to the second tier for big priced outsiders after the international break and potentially 'wins to nil' in League One.
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