Joe Townsend's outright tips and predictions: Premier League and EFL Championship and League One

Football betting tips: Outrights

Premier League

5pts Brighton to finish in the top half at 10/11 (Betway)

1pt e.w. Cole Palmer to finish as Premier League top scorer at 20/1 (General) (1/4 odds 1-4)

1pt e.w. Omar Marmoush to finish as Premier League top scorer at 50/1 (General) (1/4 odds 1-4)

2pts e.w. Martin Odegaard most Premier League assists at 20/1 (General) (1/4 odds 1-4)

EFL

5pts Derby to finish in the Championship top half at 11/8 (BetVictor)

0.5pt e.w. Corey Blackett-Taylor to be Championship top goalscorer at 250/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds 1-4)

1pt e.w. Caleb Watts to be League One top goalscorer at 50/1 (bet365) (1/4 odds 1-4)

Last and by no means least to get started this season is the Premier League, whose clubs (other than Chelsea and Manchester City) have enjoyed a very slightly extended summer break thanks to the Club World Cup.

With both the title race and relegation battle looking to have little in the way of value, the team I really like the look of in the betting is BRIGHTON. Initially, I was considering getting them onside when I saw the 5/1 about them finishing in the top six, but 10/11 for them TO FINISH IN THE TOP HALF is the bet.

Albion have finished in the top 10 in three of the last four seasons, with the only exception in 2023/24 when Roberto De Zerbi had downed tools ahead of his summer departure, overseeing just one win from his final 10 matches - even then they only missed out by a place and a point.

With no European football to deal with, having so far lost only Joao Pedro - rare for a club who consistently sell their best players - and with a bright young manager in Fabian Hurzeler heading into his second season in charge, Brighton should coast into the top half.

As for the top six, it isn't beyond them, but as I consider it highly unlikely Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City, Chelsea and Aston Villa won't occupy five of those places, backing Brighton that way feels like a risk that isn't worth taking, especially with speculation over the future of Carlos Baleba.

Potential in the player markets

Elsewhere in the Premier League it is the player markets I like the look of, starting with COLE PALMER TO FINISH AS TOP GOALSCORER at 20/1.

Palmer has been a revelation since joining Chelsea, scoring 22 and 15 top-flight goals respectively in his two seasons at Stamford Bridge, with 43 in 97 appearances in all competitions.

His role as penalty taker makes him a great candidate to be in the running for this award, one that he finished as runner-up to Erling Haaland for in 23/24.

With most firms offering 1/4 odds to four places, he is very much worth backing each way, as is Manchester City forward OMAR MARMOUSH at 50/1 quotes.

The Egyptian made an instant impact when arriving into a struggling City team in January, with seven goals in 14 league starts.

He scored 22 goals in 33 league games in total season (for Eintracht Frankfurt and his new club) building on a breakout campaign in Germany that saw him net 17 in all competitions.

With City expected to be much improved this term, and Marmoush capable of playing in multiple positions across the frontline, he looks seriously overpriced.

Finally MARTIN ODEGAARD is being backed each way at 20/1 to finish with the MOST ASSISTS in the division.

The Arsenal captain was disappointing last season, struggling to rediscover his best form after injury and suffering from playing in a team that was regularly without its best attacking players. Given the summer transfer business they have done we can expect Arsenal to return to the more free-flowing style we saw in the earlier part of Mikel Arteta's reign, something their skipper will thrive off.

Odegaard provided 11 assists two seasons ago, the sixth-most in the league and just one behind team-mate Bukayo Saka.

Saka is 3/1 to top this list come May, with Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Palmer and Bruno Fernandes all also in single figures. The jump up to Odegaard is too steep, and we should take advantage, especially as he now has a natural number nine to feed in Viktor Gyokeres, something he's never had previously.

Dark horse Derby worth backing

John Eustace has built a great reputation in the Championship, taking Birmingham and Blackburn from relegation struggle to play-off contention.

He's done the first part with Derby, who before his February arrival had looked destined for an immediate return to League One. After losing his opening three matches, Eustace secured 21 points from the final 11 fixtures to comfortably lead the Rams to safety.

Several Derby players have been noticeably bullish in stating their promotion ambitions ahead of this season, quite the change in attitude. Given the record of their manager and the business the club has done this summer, should we really be surprised?

Among their 10 new signings Derby have brought in forwards Carlton Morris and Patrick Agyemang for a total outlay of around £10m, pinched Rhian Brewster from Sheffield United and signed exciting young former Liverpool midfielder Bobby Clark on loan from RB Salzburg.

With DERBY 12/1 to win promotion and 5/1 for the top six, I'm very willing to back the Rams as a dark horse, but prefer the 11/8 about a TOP HALF FINISH.

Bristol City were surprise top-six finishers in the second tier last term, and in a division that appears weaker this time around that kind of performance doesn't feel out of reach.

There is one other Derby-related bet I'm including, but it is very much a longshot.

If I left this out and COREY BLACKETT-TAYLOR got anywhere near the place money TO BE CHAMPIONSHIP TOP SCORER or even started the season well and gave us a run for our money, I would kick myself. At 250/1, we're having some of it each way.

The winger earned his move to Pride Park by scoring 16 times in 54 league appearances across two seasons with Charlton but has barely played since joining the club 18 months ago. Now fully fit he has scored in all four of their pre-season fixtures, assuming penalty duties.

It's very common for a huge-priced player, usually someone not operating as a traditional centre-forward, to place in the Championship top scorer charts, with Borja Sainz and Josh Brownhill last term's couple of examples.

Watts occurring at Home Park?

For one other long-term bet, I'm dipping into League One having seen CALEB WATTS make an impressive debut for Plymouth.

Five goals in 48 appearances as a midfielder for Exeter are hardly head-turning numbers, but his performance - and more importantly his position - in an opening day 3-1 home defeat by Barnsley was eye-catching.

Playing as a centre-forward he had a goal disallowed for a foul after just five minutes. Watts then went on to have six further attempts, including a second-half goal - one of three shots on target.

No player had more touches (9) in the opposition box in the EFL last weekend or generated more non-penalty xG than his 0.98.

Of course this is only a one-game sample, but his performance was noteworthy enough to make the 50/1 about him to finish as LEAGUE ONE TOP SCORER worth backing as that price won't hang around for long.

Even if Argyle do manage to sign a new striker, expect Watts to operate much higher up the pitch than he did during his time with Exeter.

Odds correct at 1430 BST (8/8/25)

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