Jimmy’s Punt 25/26: Staked 102.50pts | Returned 102.52pts | P/L +0.02pts | ROI 0%
Football betting tips: EFL
Saturday 12:30 - Norwich vs Hull
1pt Hull to win at 23/10 (General)
Saturday 12:30 - West Brom vs Sheffield Wednesday
3pts Sheff Wed +1 Asian handicap at 11/10 (bet365)
1pt Sheff Wed double chance and Ethan Horvath to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Sheff Wed win and Horvath to be carded at 35/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00 - Cheltenham vs Bradford
0.5pt Cheltenham to win at 11/2 (bet365)
Saturday 20:00 - Liverpool vs Aston Villa
3pts Aston Villa +0.5 Asian handicap at 13/10 (bet365)
1pt Villa double chance and Emi Martinez to be carded at 12/1 (William Hill)
0.5pt Villa to win and Martinez to be carded at 25/1 (bet365, William Hill)
Generational wealth
0.5pt Sheff Wed double chance, Horvath card and Aston Villa double chance, Martinez card at 179/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Sheff Wed to win, Horvath card and Aston Villa to win, Martinez card at 935/1 (bet365)
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There’s FA Cup first round action this weekend.
Time for fans of League One and League Two clubs to decide if they wanna focus on the league or if they do in fact fancy a cup run. It all depends on their results this weekend.
Annoyingly, the scope for some outsiders has been scuppered by some stingy prices. I've only found one big price that I thought was worth flagging.
Not to worry, there’s some nice prices in the Premier League and the Championship including a couple of keeper card combinations. And with the referee appointments to boot, the return of a couple of generational wealth punts feels necessary.
Norwich vs Hull
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
This could be Liam Manning’s last chance to save his job at Norwich.
The Canaries haven’t won a league game since the end of August and have lost their last five. At home, they are yet to pick up a point in the Championship and on Saturday welcome a HULL side bang in form.
The Tigers have only lost once since the end of August, are unbeaten in their last five and could move into the play-offs with a win at Carrow Road.
At 23/10, backing them TO WIN seems relatively straightforward.
West Brom vs Sheff Wed
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports+
- Live odds, form and stats
I have some keeper card angles in the Championship, no prizes for guessing who the referee is, and without getting carried away, it really does feel like the stars have aligned at The Hawthorns.
A side with decent away form are playing away, they are a big price and their game is being officiated by the best referee in the world when it comes to booking keepers. Plus, the game kicks off at 12:30, Gandhi’s favourite and a notoriously difficult time slot for the favourites to navigate.
Kick-off times may be a flimsy thing to base a bet on but SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY’s away form is not. They have won the majority of their points on the road this season which makes sense given their issues behind the scenes.
At Hillsborough, it’s one point from a possible 21 but on their travels they’ve taken five in as many games (W1 D2 L2).
Their away fixtures have not been easy either. They’ve gone to Leicester, Wrexham, Portsmouth, Birmingham and Charlton and finished a man light in both defeats.
Price wise, this is the biggest the Owls have been for an away game since their opening game at the King Power and I am not sure why.
Yes, the visitors have lost four on the spin but three of those were at home. It is also worth noting the picture behind the scenes has changed recently with the club being put into administration and in a strange way, it has brought a sense of optimism to the club.
The Owls can confirm that all staff and players at Sheffield Wednesday have been paid on time - in fact, payments were made one day early.
— Sheffield Wednesday (@swfc)
This marks a major step forward in stabilising the club’s operations and rebuilding trust both internally and with our supporters.
Saturday’s hosts have lost their last two league games at Ipswich and Watford. Inconsistency has been their season in a nutshell, both in terms of performances and results.
At home they have W2 D2 L1 with both victories coming by a one goal margin. Portsmouth (17/4) and Leicester (23/10) held West Brom to draws and Derby (4/1) beat them 1-0 after scoring with their only shot on target.
In all three games, the Baggies performances warranted more but they didn’t capitalise which is why Wednesday are worth siding with here.
At 11/10, backing the Owls +1 ASIAN HANDICAP appeals. It is yet to lose in any of West Brom’s home games and Wednesday’s away games.
I’ll also be combining SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and TO WIN alongside stopper ETHAN HORVATH TO BE CARDED.
Horvath was carded in the win at Portsmouth and referee Ben Toner carded 20 keepers in 36 league appearances last season and two in eight this season.
Cheltenham vs Bradford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
At the prices available, there aren’t many underdogs worth considering in the FA Cup 1st Round this weekend. CHELTENHAM’s price TO WIN against Bradford could be the exception at 11/2.
Steve Cotterill’s return to Whaddon Road has almost been faultless taking ten points from a possible 12 in League Two. It could have been a clean sweep but for Gillingham’s 95th minute equaliser.
The underlying data suggests the Robins have been a little fortunate, nonetheless they will fancy their chances of a scalp on Saturday.
It could be the perfect time to play Bradford as well. Graham Alexander’s side have drawn their last four league games and with a genuine chance of back-to-back promotions, the FA Cup feels like a competition they could perhaps do without.
The Bantams beat Aldershot in the first round last season before getting knocked out by Morecambe in the second. Alexander made six changes for the latter and with several key men missing out in recent weeks, he could rotate on Saturday.
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Is Arne Slot’s job in danger?
After last season's success it seems ridiculous to suggest but the money has come for Liverpool’s manager in the sack race.
Making wholesale changes in the Carabao Cup in midweek felt like an odd thing to do, like the kind of thing a manager feeling the pressure would do.
The Reds went into that clash with Crystal Palace having lost five of their last six in all competitions and after the 3-0 defeat the damage to squad morale might outweigh the advantages brought by resting the big hitters.
It doesn’t get any easier this weekend with ASTON VILLA in town.
It’s the clichéd chalk-and-cheese when it comes to form with the Villans winning six of their last seven in all competitions. In the Premier League, Unai Emery’s side have won their last four on the spin which means they start the weekend behind Liverpool by only goal-difference.
Whilst Villa don’t have the best recent record at Anfield (D1 L6), Emery’s record against the big clubs is very good and they must fancy their chances of breaking that Anfield hoodoo against Liverpool in their current guise.
So, I fancy the outsiders to get a result but given the referee appointment, keeper cards have to enter the frame as well.
Stuart Atwell’s carded two keepers in six top flight games this season for time wasting and signed off last campaign by carding five stoppers in six matches.
Interestingly, two of those bookings went the way of EMI MARTINEZ.
Martinez has forged his career on the dark arts, picking up 25 cards across his last seven seasons in the league (0.13 cards per 90).
Backing Villa +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP is the first angle. I am also on the visitors WIN-OR-DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE and TO WIN alongside Martinez TO BE CARDED.
I am touting the bets with bet365 and William Hill because most people should be able to get the bets on with these firms online. If not, the William Hill terminals in shops offer the same prices as online.
That said, the double chance bet builder is available at 13/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes for the handful of people who can get on with those firms.
Generational wealth
I could not not tout the keeper card combinations as doubles. I am on them myself and the circumstances are perfect. Two big priced away sides, both have a decent chance of a result and the referee appointments in both games are as good as you can get for the respective divisions.
Double chance double at 179/1 (bet365):
- Sheffield Wednesday double chance and Horvath card
- Aston Villa double chance and Martinez card
Win double at 935/1 (bet365):
- Sheff Wed to win and Horvath card
- Aston Villa to win and Martinez card
As ever, small stakes and do so responsibly. Lets just hope they’re in with a chance come kick-off at Anfield.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (30/10/25)
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