Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 27.5pts | Returned 31.37pts | P/L +3.87pts | ROI 10%
Jake's Predictions 24/25: Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts | P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday 14:00
2pts Brighton or draw (double chance) vs Man City at evens (General)
0.5pt Brighton to beat Man City at 3/1 (Betfred)
1pt Nikola Milenkovic to score anytime in Forest vs West Ham at 15/2 (Betway)
0.5pt Murillo to score anytime in Forest vs West Ham at 19/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Sunday 16:30 - Liverpool vs Arsenal
1.5pts Eberechi Eze to score or assist at 6/4 (bet365)
Sunday 19:00 - Aston Villa vs C Palace
1.5pts Will Hughes to be carded at 12/5 (bet365)
Another solid week's work last time out, mainly thanks to a late Sasa Lukic card, though Chelsea thumping West Ham was a lovely start to the column.
Dan Ballard going off injured inside the first 10 minutes of Sunderland's game against Burnley cost us 2.5pts which wasn't ideal but these things can happen in football betting.
This week we've a nice mix of bets in a slate I like the look of, before an international break... already.
Brighton vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
These are the type of games where BRIGHTON thrive, and the games where Manchester City have struggled of late.
The Seagulls always perform better against top sides, especially at the Amex, whereas City were woeful against the better teams on the road last season - and I suspect we'll see a continuation this season.
Last season, when hosting the top-half teams in the Premier League, Brighton posted a record of W4 D4 L1. Against the eventual top six it was W3 D2 L1, with Aston Villa the only side to get the better of them at the Amex.
Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola's side managed just one away win against top-half teams last season, and that was the very first game of the campaign at Chelsea. From then they lost six of the following eight visits to the eventual top 10, losing the xG battle in seven of the nine away days and shipping 1.83 xGA per game.
Question marks remain around City defensively, and that's enough for me to want to back the home side DOUBLE CHANCE at evens.
Yes, Brighton lost at Everton last weekend, but that defeat was far less concerning than City's home defeat to Tottenham. The Seagulls were the first visitors to the new stadium, and they carved out a hell of a lot of chances (13 shots, three big chances and 2.43 xG) and missed a penalty, so 2-0 was harsh.
City were out-shot and out-big-chanced at home to Spurs, with Pep's side limited to just 1.01 open play xG in a rare home shutout. They are still finding their best XI and adapting to a new pressing style, and Brighton are a team who can exploit that.
As well as the conservative bet of the hosts avoiding defeat, we'll also back BRIGHTON TO WIN to smaller stakes at 3/1, with my belief that they are a team to back when taking on the elite unwavering. That combined with me not being sold on this new version of City makes the hosts a solid bet.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-1 Manchester City ()
Odds correct at 1135 BST (29/08/25)
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Graham Potter is on the hot seat in every sense. West Ham fans are unhappy, the team looks poor and results have been shocking. Defeat here could spell the end of his short tenure, especially with Jose Mourinho now available.
One of the big issues the Hammers have had so far this season is defending crosses and specifically set-pieces. In three games across all competitions, all against Premier League opponents, Potter's men have conceded two headed goals from open play and five goals from set-pieces.
They have faced a whopping 16 shots from dead-ball situations in just three outings, so that looks an avenue to explore here given how dangerous Nottingham Forest can be from them.
So it makes sense then to back both MURILLO and NIKOLA MILENKOVIC TO SCORE ANYTIME, though at the prices we'll stake more on the latter.
Murillo is 19/1 to find the net on Sunday, with Milenkovic 15/2, an understandable drop in price given the Serb's superior stats and scoring record, but we simply have to cover both bases in this one. You never know, they might both score given West Ham's issues.
Neither has had a shot yet this season, but Forest have faced two strong set-piece sides in Brentford and Crystal Palace, so I've confidence the pair will threaten.
Murillo found the net twice last season, both from set-pieces, and averaged 0.71 shots per 90. Milenkovic scored five times, all from set-pieces, and averaged 0.78 shots and 0.11 xG per 90, with his last goal coming against Potter's Hammers.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 3-1 West Ham ()
Odds correct at 1420 BST (29/08/25)
Liverpool vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool have looked wide-open defensively but extremely clinical in attack so far this season, while Arsenal have looked like their usual selves at the back but will be missing Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard for this trip, making this game tough to call.
If I were to pick either side it would be the Gunners, though the draw is a result the pair would happily take, no doubt.
Arne Slot's men have been porous at the back so far, conceding multiple goals in all three games if we include the Community Shield, and I don't expect that to stop anytime soon given just how top-heavy and attack-minded their XI is.
A vulnerable defence - with no right-back and a new left-back - is being left even more exposed, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Arsenal score twice here, just as they did in both meetings last season.
That makes the price of their new signing EBERECHI EZE TO SCORE OR ASSIST value in my eyes at 6/4. I think his signing is a brilliant one, and he could have a real say in proceedings on Sunday.
I suspect we'll see Mikel Arteta deploy him off the left at Anfield, opting for more security in midfield with Mikel Merino, but that could be a perfect match-up for Eze, who will face either midfielders by trade Dominik Szoboszlai or Curtis Jones, or an unproven and not 100% fit Conor Bradley.
Eze could be the match winner on Sunday should he do as I expect and win that battle down the left comfortably.
The Englishman is in the form of his life right now, with this bet landing in 14 of his last 22 starts for Crystal Palace - that's a 64% hit rate.
Now in a better team with better players, against a defence that's allowing an average of 1.58 xGA per game, he could add to that record here and improve upon his 0.52 expected goal involvements (xGI = xG + xA) per 90 from last term.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Arsenal ()
Odds correct at 1500 BST (29/08/25)
Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Sunday, 19:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
Oliver Glasner really has Unai Emery's number. The pair have met five times as managers of Crystal Palace and Aston Villa respectively and Glasner's men have won four, scoring multiple goals on every occasion and dominating on aggregate (16-4).
That's enough to put me off an initially appetising price around a good home team, though with Palace travelling back from a hard-fought 0-0 in Norway to qualify for the Conference League, and having lost Eberechi Eze without yet replacing him, I can't get on the visitors either.
Instead, we'll head to the cards market with Stuart Attwell overseeing proceedings fresh from a seven-card game at Everton last weekend.
WILL HUGHES is the main man when it comes to cards, and at 12/5 he should be backed accordingly at Villa Park.
The Englishman has been booked in both league starts so far this season and was given a rest in the Conference League qualifying second leg so will be fresh for this one, and along with a hefty cards tally last season, he's been heavily involved against Villa in the past.
Hughes collected 11 cards last season at an average of 0.47 per 90, and committed 2.76 fouls per 90, while he has been booked in two of his last three starts against Emery's Villa, making eight fouls in 233 minutes.
It seems likely that, with Boubacar Kamara injured, Youri Tielemans will play deeper and Morgan Rogers will play more centrally, which only enhances my interest in this bet.
Keep an eye on line-ups too, as if Daichi Kamada is starting, he also looks a cracking bet at around 5/1.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Crystal Palace ()
Odds correct at 1600 BST (29/08/25)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 12:30 - Chelsea vs Fulham
1.5pts Fulham +1.0 Asian Handicap at evens (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Lesley Ugochukwu to be carded in Man Utd vs Burnley at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Matt Doherty to be carded in Wolves vs Everton at 5/1 (Sky Bet, bet365, Betfred)
Saturday 17:30 - Leeds vs Newcastle
1.5pts William Osula to commit 2+ fouls at 11/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Chelsea vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
I was very bullish on Chelsea's chances last week, and they delivered for us, but that was because of how poorly I rate West Ham as opposed to how good I think Enzo Maresca's side are. This week, we are backing against them.
FULHAM are a very good team, and we have seen over the past few seasons just how the Premier League middle-class has drastically improved and closed the gap on the so-called 'elite' sides. Every game against a mid-table team now is a real struggle, and it should be again for the Blues.
We can back the Cottagers +1.0 ASIAN HANDICAP at evens and that looks a cracking bet to me. Taking this angle basically means we get a full pay out should Marco Silva's men avoid defeat at Stamford Bridge, with stakes returned should they lose by one goal. We only lose money if they lose by two goals or more.
That seems unlikely to me, and Fulham's record against the best sides last season was excellent. If we backed them blind against last season's top eight in this market, we would have won money nine times out of 16, got money back five times and lost just twice.
Away from home it would have been four wins and four pushes, with none of the eventual top eight beating the Cottagers by two or more goals.
I need to see more from Chelsea against sides of Fulham's level for me to be backing them at heavy odds-on, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Blues struggle to break Fulham down, just as they did against Crystal Palace on opening weekend.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Fulham ()
Odds correct at 1415 BST (28/08/25)
Manchester United vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Oh boy. Just when you thought things were on the up for Manchester United, they somehow reach a new low. Eliminated from the Carabao Cup by League Two Grimsby, and being outplayed for an hour, was a shocking result, and Ruben Amorim's comments after the game were even more so.
He sounded resigned to his fate and hinted that he'd lost the dressing room. Failure to beat Burnley on Saturday could certainly cost him his job.
The Red Devils have been miserable full stop since the Portuguese coach took over, but especially at home, where they have won just four of 15, losing nine times, so I was looking to get Burnley onside, but the handicap has moved from +1.5 to +1.0 after Wednesday's result, so we'll look elsewhere for value.
Sam Barrott is the referee and he has started the season in emphatic fashion, dishing 17 cards across three games, and flashing six yellows in his sole league outing. Last season he ran at a 4.8 cards-per-game average, so we'll dip into the player card markets given the desperation we'll likely see at Old Trafford.
Yes, United have been poor, but their foul-drawing capabilities in central areas have gone through the roof this season thanks to their summer additions.
Matheus Cunha has been fouled five times in two league games and Bryan Mbeumo four times, while captain and stalwart Bruno Fernandes, joining in from a deeper position, has been fouled five times too. This logic led to us landing a Sasa Lukic card last weekend, and hopefully we can follow it up with LESLEY UGOCHUKWU TO BE CARDED.
Burnley's new midfielder is yet to pick up a card this season, but last season when on-loan at Southampton, he regularly found his name in the referee's book.
He was booked seven times in limited minutes, averaging 0.38 cards per 90 while committing 1.68 fouls per 90, so at 4/1 against dynamic and tricky 10s and Bruno, he looks overpriced.
Former United player Hannibal Mejbri is another excellent candidate for a card, but at 15/8, he looks too short.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Burnley ()
Odds correct at 1455 BST (28/08/25)
Sunderland vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
How perceptions can change in a week, eh?
Sunderland have gone from staying up comfortably following victory over West Ham to being back in trouble after defeat at Burnley, while Brentford have gone from being in trouble after losing 3-1 at Forest to staying up comfortably thanks to a win against Aston Villa.
I need a bit longer to fully suss out these two sides, so it will be no bet, but I have to say, Brentford's price to win (6/4 general) did appeal somewhat.
Score prediction: Sunderland 0-2 Brentford ()
Odds correct at 1515 BST (28/08/25)
Tottenham vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
Tottenham have looked very good under Thomas Frank, impressing in victory over Manchester City last weekend, while Bournemouth bounced back from their opening day defeat with a win over Wolves.
We know how the Cherries will approach this game - aggressively and on the front foot - but Frank's adaptability is underrated and he'll have a plan for the visitors given he did the double over them last season with Brentford. No bet here.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-1 Bournemouth ()
Odds correct at 1550 BST (28/08/25)
Wolves vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
MATT DOHERTY is 5/1 TO BE CARDED here and that price simply has to be snapped up.
Wolves' right centre-back has been carded in both league games so far, committing six fouls in 180 minutes of football, and on Saturday he will likely come up against Jack Grealish.
Last weekend Grealish operated in spaces that will be occupied by Doherty, and drew a card from his opposing right-back Mats Wieffer on his home debut.
Doherty will have his hands full and has become a serial offender when it comes to collecting cards, picking up six last season at a rate of 0.26 per 90.
Referee Michael Oliver has been unusually quiet in his first two Premier League games (1 card in total so far), but has been his usual self in his two European games (4 and 6), and I suspect it won't take long before he returns to the levels we saw last season (4.6 cards per game).
Score prediction: Wolves 1-2 Everton ()
Leeds vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
No Alexander Isak. No Anthony Gordon. No Nick Woltemade (yet). Enter WILLIAM OSULA.
The young Dane came off the bench on Monday night and really impressed with his energy, size and physicality, scoring what ought to have been the goal to earn his Newcastle side a point before a late winner for Liverpool. He should get the nod from the off on Saturday, and it's his price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS which appeals most.
That price is 11/8 with Betfair and Paddy Power, and that looks massive given the way he plays. He's very aggressive and extremely gangly which is a perfect blend for fouls.
In his 14-minute cameo against Liverpool he committed three fouls, in a rare start in the FA Cup away at Birmingham last season he made two fouls, and a few years ago when in the Premier League with Sheffield United, he averaged 1.72 fouls per 90.
The high-intensity nature with which Eddie Howe asks his team to play should help this bet too, as should the desperation for a win for the Magpies, who have just one point so far, especially against a promoted team in Leeds who were slapped by Arsenal and then ousted from the Carabao Cup by a Sheffield Wednesday youth team.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-2 Newcastle ()
Odds correct at 1040 BST (29/08/25)
Odds correct at 1550 BST (28/08/25)
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Home of This Week's Acca
- Football and other sports tips
- Download the Sporting Life app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .
