Jake's Predictions 25/26: P/L +2.31pts | ROI 16% | Staked 14.50pts | Returned 16.81pts
Jake's Predictions 24/25: P/L +75.06pts | ROI 13.3% | Staked 562.50pts | Returned 637.56pts
Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - Newcastle vs Liverpool
0.5pt Anthony Elanga to score anytime at 10/3 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
0.5pt Anthony Elanga 1+ assist at 9/2 (bet365, Betway)
We got off to a decent start last week, posting some early profit, but it could have been - and was for some - more.
Erling Haaland, tipped to score anytime, net a brace and a hat-trick, did in fact net twice, with his substitute Rayan Cherki netting as well. Most bookies now offer a 'Super Sub' of sorts which meant the hat-trick bet landed, with a fair few of you readers getting in touch to tell me as much - which was excellent news!
The not so good news is that I can't count the hatty as profit in my column. BOOOO.
Anyway, we can't grumble too much given how the week went, and we go again this week.
Newcastle vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool were scintillating in attack last week against Bournemouth, but boy did they look vulnerable in transition. Antoine Semenyo exploited that weakness, and I think ANTHONY ELANGA can follow in his footsteps.
The Swede is absolutely rapid, and Newcastle's new signing impressed on his debut against Aston Villa, taking two shots equating to 0.57 xG, with one big chance falling to him on a fast break.
Last season Elanga had 44 shots for Nottingham Forest and scored six times, with 12 of those attempts and half of those goals coming via fast breaks, as well as 35% of his xG total. He is up there with the league's most dangerous counter-attacking threats, and I want to get him onside on his home debut.
The Magpies should get plenty of joy against what is a very attack-minded Liverpool team, and he'll be up against the extremely forward-thinking left back Milos Kerkez, so could be in for a big game, so we'll split stakes on him TO SCORE ANYTIME and to register 1+ ASSIST at 10/3 and 9/2 respectively.
Should he only score we'll be in for +1.16pts profit, should he only assist we'll scoop +1.75pts, but the reason we are splitting smaller stakes and not putting a bigger stake on him to score or assist at 7/5 is that I wouldn't be surprised if he did both on Monday in what could be a high-scoring classic, just like the 3-3 last season at St James' Park.
Score prediction: Newcastle 2-2 Liverpool ()
Odds correct at 1615 BST (22/08/25)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday 20:00 - West Ham vs Chelsea
1pt Estevao to score or assist at 21/20 (bet365)
1pt Chelsea -1 handicap at 15/8 (Boylesports)
Saturday 12:30 - Manchester City vs Tottenham
1pt Kevin Danso to be carded at 3/1 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
Saturday 15:00 - Bournemouth vs Wolves
1pt Marcos Senesi to be carded at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
1pt Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded at 6/1 (bet365, Betfred)
0.5pt Senesi and Larsen to be carded at 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Saturday 15:00 - Burnley vs Sunderland
2.5pts Dan Ballard 1+ total shot at 21/20 (BetVictor)
0.5pts Dan Ballard to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 17:30 - Arsenal vs Leeds
1pt Wilfried Gnonto 2+ tackles at 7/4 (BoyleSports)
Sunday 14:00 - Everton vs Brighton
1pt Carlos Baleba to be carded at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
Sunday 16:30 - Fulham vs Manchester United
1.5pts Sasa Lukic to be carded at 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a BIG swerve game given the price moves, narratives and referee appointment. The undertone of this fixture is one of conflict given Nottingham Forest were bumped up to the Europa League at Crystal Palace's expense, with reports that Forest dropped the Eagles in it and were pushing hard for the Eagles' demotion.
That had me looking at cards, but the referee here is Anthony Taylor who can be extremely lenient. Because of the UEFA ruling Palace have played on Thursday night which isn't ideal preparation for this game, as well as Eberechi Eze seemingly moving on to Arsenal, meaning a pro-Forest selection crosse my mind, but the reports of tensions building between manager and ownership at the City Ground also put me off. No bet.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-1 Nottingham Forest ()
Odds correct at 1046 BST (22/08/25)
Everton vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton were terrible on Monday, but I get the sense that David Moyes was saving his players a little for this game - their first home league game in their new stadium. They were defence-first at Leeds, but I suspect we see them go much more attacking here.
Jack Grealish should come in from the off, as should Thierno Barry, but it's the inclusion of the former which provides the most excitement, and has me wanting to revisit an opposing midfielder being CARDED.
CARLOS BALEBA looks the prime suspect, and is worth backing at 10/3. Grealish came on for 20 minutes on Monday and was fouled once playing in attacking midfield, and Baleba made two fouls against Fulham up against young Josh King.
Interestingly, he was subbed off for Diego Gomez in that game, with Gomez committing a further two fouls and getting booked, meaning this bet is a runner throughout the 90 should Baleba get hooked again - thanks to the Super Sub feature.
Last season, the Cameroonian was carded eight times at an average of 0.30 per 90 making the price value before we factor in his opponent and the referee appointment, while he averaged 0.48 cards per 90 in 23/24.
The man with the whistle is Stuart Attwell, who averaged 4.38 cards per game, and started the new season with a six card game in a Conference League qualifier.
Score prediction: Everton 2-1 Brighton ()
Odds correct at 1105 BST (22/08/25)
Fulham vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester United looked like a serviceable top half team last week in defeat to Arsenal, and I suspect we see another promising performance, though the result could well escape them once again.
Betting-wise, with Chris Kavanagh the referee cards have to be a factor. The whistle-blower averaged 5.3 cards per game last season, and while he was a little disappointing on Monday when brandishing just two cards at Elland Road, there were only 14 fouls committed in the entire game, so I'm giving him a pass.
He should be a lot busier on Sunday, and Fulham's SASA LUKIC is the prime candidate TO BE CARDED.
The Serb is 9/4 to pick up his first card of the season, though he tried very hard last week to get booked but somehow avoided punishment despite committing five fouls.
I've no idea how he managed that, but Kavanagh won't be as lenient, and Lukic will have his hands full at Craven Cottage, with Matheus Cunha and Bryan Mbeumo buzzing in and around him, and Bruno Fernandes pushing up to join in.
The former two, United's new boys, were fouled three times each by Arsenal last weekend, with Bruno felled an additional two times, so more of the same should mean Lukic has his name taken.
He picked up the joint-most cards in the league last season, 12, yes TWELVE, at an average of 0.46 per 90 suggesting a blanket price of 6/5 - which is the shortest price he is on the market. A good ref, a foul machine and some slippery opponents, 9/4 could prove huge value, especially with Super Sub, which could introduce Tom Carirney (booked in the opener as a sub) or former United player Andreas Pereira (who was booked eight times last season).
Score prediction: Fulham 1-2 Manchester United ()
Odds correct at 1500 BST (22/08/25)
West Ham vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm worried for West Ham. Their lack of mobility and physicality especially in midfield is a massive concern, with the Premier League evolving into a high-intensity and mobile division. Sunderland ran over them last week.
Chelsea's midfield should do the same, so an away win is fancied, and the single is nearly in range at 7/10, but I'll take the bigger price of CHELSEA -1 HANDICAP.
The Blues were good against Crystal Palace, but just didn't put their chances away (xG: CHE 1.60 - 0.66 CRY), and the Eagles are a much, much better team than West Ham.
Enzo Maresca's side should have their way with the Hammers, just as they did last season when winning 3-0 at the London Stadium, and add to the extremely negative feeling around the club.
West Ham's attacking process is concerning under Graham Potter, and it has to be said that his way of playing - of passive possession and slow build-up - seems a thing of the past in the high-octane Premier League.
ESTEVAO's sub appearance was eye-catching in Chelsea's opening game, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him start here, in which case the 21/20 available for him TO SCORE OR ASSIST is worth taking.
The extremely-young Brazilian was on the pitch for just 37 minutes but provided an instant spark for the Blues, and finished the match with an xG figure of 0.34 and an xA figure of 0.37. Remarkably impressive.
In the Brazilian Serie A last season he scored 13 and assisted nine and posted an expected goal involvement (xGI = xG + xA) per 90 figure of 0.64, and while that was in a division that is inferior to this, the early signs are that he's more than capable of making that step up and contributing.
Score prediction: West Ham 0-2 Chelsea ()
Odds correct at 1245 BST (21/08/25)
Manchester City vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 BST
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Both Manchester City and Tottenham made excellent starts to the season last week, thrashing Wolves and Burnley respectively, but this looks a real litmus test for both.
Are this City side for real? Can Thomas Frank get Spurs contending with teams like City?
We'll hopefully get some answers this weekend, but at this moment in time I was very close to backing Spurs to cause an upset at 11/2, or avoid defeat at 17/10, given what I feel was an overreaction to Pep Guardiola's side's opening result.
Frank will give Spurs a great chance every week due to his adaptability, switching formations - they've played a 3-5-2 and 4-3-3 already - and styles, having played long, direct football against PSG and short concise football against Burnley.
They'll cause problems for City, but given I think they'll head north and operate with a back three, we have to chance KEVIN DANSO TO BE CARDED at 3/1.
He played in the right centre-back role against PSG in the Super Cup and picked up a card for a cynical foul after being left in a tricky one-on-one situation by the attack-minded wing-back Pedro Porro, and I suspect he'll end up in the same predicament at least once this weekend.
That will spell trouble, not least because the Austrian can be rash, but also because his opponents will be slippery, direct dribblers. Jeremy Doku started on the left for City last week against Wolves before Omar Marmoush came on and drew a yellow card from Wolves' RCB Matt Doherty.
It's worth chancing a repeat on Saturday, especially with Peter Bankes at the whistle who averaged 4.0 cards per game last season.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-2 Tottenham ()
Odds correct at 1445 BST (21/08/25)
Brentford vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
It's a new dawn at the Gtech, with Kieth Andrews taking charge of his first home league game as Brentford boss. The Bees will be looking to bounce back after a poor display at Nottingham Forest, and welcome an Aston Villa side who were equally as bad last week against Newcastle.
This is a tough one to call, so it's going to be a no bet but keep an eye on Brentford set-pieces. Andrews was the set-piece coach last season and the Bees were the second most dangerous side in the league from set-pieces according to xG, so you can imagine him wanting to bring that speciality of his to the fore once more.
Sepp van den Berg (2 shots, 1 on target) and Nathan Collins (1 shot) were both big threats at Forest, though Villa were very good at defending set-plays last season. Perhaps it's an angle for next week.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Aston Villa ()
Odds correct at 1535 BST (21/08/25)
Bournemouth vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
This match-up was a tasty one last season. Bournemouth and Wolves met three times in total and shared a huge 18 yellow card and one red, with the two sides' high-pressing and aggressive approach leading to plenty of big challenges.
That's a thread worth persisting with given the continuity in the dugout of both teams, so we'll chance a few players in the cards markets.
First up is JORGEN STRAND LARSEN who is 6/1 TO BE CARDED.
The big Norwegian doesn't hold back. He throws himself into challenges and duels, and with his size, can be especially awkward and sometimes overzealous.
He made three fouls last week against Manchester City in a game his side lost heavily, while last season committed at least two fouls in 15 of his 30 league starts and averaged 1.70 fouls per 90 when starting last term.
Larsen was booked five times in total last season, with two of those yellows coming against the Cherries, with the Wolves forward clearly engaging in tussles with the Bournemouth defenders, with at least one of his opposite number booked too.
So, we'll also chance MARCOS SENESI too, as well as them BOTH TO BE CARDED, with the Argentine loving a tussle.
Senesi was booked five times last season in limited minutes, with his 0.41 cards per 90 making the 10/3 available for him to be booked huge value as a single. He picked up 13 yellows in 23/24 at an average of 0.52 cards per 90, and over the past two seasons both him and his opposing striker booked on four occasions.
The referee here is Tom Bramall who's averaged 3.63 cards per game in the Premier League, but will be especially busy on Saturday (hopefully), and may have to show his red card again - he finished the season showing three reds in his last two top flight outings.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 2-1 Wolves ()
Odds correct at 1535 BST (21/08/25)
Burnley vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 BST
- Live odds, form and stats
I'm staying well away from the result here and will simply back DAN BALLARD to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT at odds against.
Sunderland put real emphasis on set-pieces in their opener and I suspect that will remain the case here, which makes Ballard a big threat. He had four shots and grabbed a goal against the Hammers at the Stadium of Light, and averaged 1.12 shots per 90 last season in the Championship with this bet landing in 10 of his 15 starts.
Burnley looked shaky from set-pieces last weekend against Tottenham, with Micky Van de Ven having two shots, both of which excellent chances from corners (0.21 and 0.38 xG).
We have to chance BALLARD TO SCORE ANYTIME too at 14/1, just in case.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-1 Sunderland ()
Arsenal vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 BST
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
This should be one-way traffic, a question of whether Arsenal can break down newly promoted Leeds.
The Whites will be stubborn, and this will be a real test for Mikel Arteta's side, and you could definitely see them getting frustrated should the game remain 0-0 for a long period.
The visitors will be trying to disrupt, and I think there is some value in backing WILFRIED GNONTO 2+ TACKLES at 7/4.
Gnonto made four tackles on Monday, and all through pre-season has been delivering high tackle lines, two in 45 minutes against Manchester United and two against Milan.
I think he'll continue delivering these higher totals as Leeds play with less of the ball than in the Championship, meaning he'll have to be tenacious and play aggressively on the front foot.
He'll likely be tasked with helping his left-back deal with Bukayo Saka, while Arsenal right-back Jurrien Timber - with Ben White injured - a player who enjoys a duel.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Leeds ()
Odds correct at 1030 BST (22/08/25)
Odds correct at 1610 BST (21/08/25)
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