Football betting tips: Champions League
1.5pts Bukayo Saka 4+ foul involvements at 9/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt Matteo Ruggeri to commit 2+ fouls at 9/4 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1pt David Hancko to commit 2+ fouls at 7/2 (bet365)
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Arsenal are rolling at the moment.
Since losing to Liverpool, Mikel Arteta's side have won seven of an unbeaten eight, conceding just two goals in that time. They've been excellent.
Atletico Madrid continue to be up and down, with some really high highs - beating Real Madrid 5-2 - and a lot of average.
One thing we can rely on Diego Simeone's side for though is their aggressive approach out of possession, and the impressive recent form of Bukayo Saka could be an avenue into a bet here.
I highlighted in my column last weekend that Saka has got back to his usual fouls won rate after a drop during an injury hit campaign, and he was felled five times at Fulham.
That follows games of 3, 2 and 3 fouls won, so Atleti's left-back could be in for a very tough afternoon. The problem - trying to figure out who that will be...
Simeone has tinkered with system and personnel in that position, but we'll chance DAVID HANCKO TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS given the positions he takes up.
Hancko sometimes plays left side of a back three or sometimes the left-back in a four, but his heat-map shows he'll likely be in the same vicinity as Saka for most of the game at the Emirates.
He's not the most prolific fouler, but did commit three fouls against Real Madrid, so does at least have previous in a multiple foul game.
If MATTEO RUGGERI gets the nod to start he could well be worth backing TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS too as the left-wing-back who committed three fouls against Frankfurt in Atleti's last Champions League game.
It goes without saying that if either don't start, cash the bet out in case you are with a bookie who doesn't auto cash-out if a player isn't starting.
At a shorter price, and to cover all bases, we'll back BUKAYO SAKA 4+ FOUL INVOLVEMENTS at 9/5. This way, if players are absent, we aren't hanging our hat on them being the player to foul Saka, and we also have Saka committing fouls on our side too.
He's gone 6-4-5-5 foul involvements in his last four matches for Arsenal, while last season in a stop-start campaign he averaged 3.5 foul involvements per 90.
Odds correct at 1330 BST (20/10/25)
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