Football betting tips: Champions League
Newcastle vs Benfica
1.5pts Richard Rios to be carded at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Joelinton to be carded at 12/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Joelinton, Rios and Barrenechea to be carded at 20/1 (bet365)
Villarreal vs Manchester City
1.5pts Santiago Mourino to be carded at 23/10 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Nico O'Reilly to be carded at 5/1 (BetVictor)
Union St-G vs Inter
2pts Inter to win and Under 4.5 goals at 11/10 (Sky Bet)
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Newcastle vs Benfica
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 2
- Live odds, form and stats
Jose Mourinho has real knee-biting midfield duo. RICHARD RIOS and ENZO BARRENECHEA are extreme, in-your-face, front-foot players who get stuck in and commit a lot of fouls.
On Tuesday, in a must-win - or at the very least must-not-lose - game for Benfica after two opening Champions League defeats, they face a Newcastle midfield that are excellent at winning fouls, so we could see plenty of cards in midfield at St. James' Park.
Rios rates the best bet at 2/1 TO BE CARDED, with the Colombian collecting six cards in 12 games including three in his last three for Benfica, averaging 2.80 fouls per 90.
Up against the likes of Bruno Guimaraes (3.16 fouls won per 90), Joelinton (1.21) and Sandro Tonali (1.20), he looks prime for a card.
Rios (2.13 fouls won per 90) and Barrenechea (1.35) also draw a lot of fouls themselves, so JOELINTON looks big at 13/5 TO BE CARDED too, with the Brazilian collecting four cards in eight games this season, being booked in both Champions League games so far.
We'll have a 20/1 treble too, with Rios, Barrenechea and Joelinton ALL TO BE CARDED. Barrenechea has been carded in seven of his 11 appearances so is understandably short at 15/8 to be carded, but we'll back him in the treble.
When Benfica played Chelsea at Stamford Bridge a few weeks ago, all three Benfica midfielders were booked, and two of Chelsea's three had their names taken, so a midfield scrap could again be on the cards. You can even add Guimaraes (2.02 fouls committed per 90) to get a 66/1 shot.
The referee here is Szymon Marciniak who has averaged 4.03 cards per game in the UCL over his career, and he can go bananas if the situation suits.
Odds correct at 1400 BST (20/10/25)
Villarreal vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
We have a cracking referee appointment for this clash. Dutchman Serdar Gozubukuk has been on fire with his cards this season, averaging 5.6 per game this season and 6.7 in UEFA competitions.
So, it would be rude not to back some player cards. SANTIAGO MOURINO TO BE CARDED looks the best bet of the evening.
Not only does he have an incredible foul and card record this season, averaging 2.27 fouls per 90 and being carded in five of nine games, but, as Villarreal's right-back, he'll be up against Jeremy Doku, who has drawn 2.50 fouls per 90 this season.
Mourino is 2/9 to commit 2+ fouls, so with a card happy referee we have to take the 23/10 about him being carded.
NICO O'REILLY looks a massive price at 5/1 TO BE CARDED too. Likely to play left-back for City, he'll be tasked with containing Villarreal winger Tajon Buchanan, who has drawn 2.78 fouls per 90, and O'Reilly has two cards to his name already this season (0.38 per 90).
Odds correct at 1420 BST (20/10/25)
Union St-Gilloise vs Inter
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:00 BST
- TV: TNT Sports 8
- Live odds, form and stats
INTER are back in business. After Champions League final defeat, Simone Inzaghi's dismissal and a shocking Club World Cup campaign, I Nerazzuri once again look like the best team in Italy.
Six straight wins have followed two disappointing defeats, and Christian Chivu's side are flying as they head to Belgium. Performances have been excellent, averaging 2.35 xGF and 0.73 xGA per game in that six game winning streak, a level of process that would see them beat most teams in Europe.
Union St-Gilloise were thumped 4-0 at home by Newcastle in the last round of UCL action, shipping 2.76 xGA in that game after allowing PSV to generate 2.50 xGA in the opener.
They are vulnerable defensively, and have recently lost their manager Sebastien Pocognoli to Monaco, so the last thing they need is one of Europe's best teams with the bit between their teeth coming to town.
Inter should have little issue here, just as Newcastle did, and backing an away win alongside UNDER 4.5 GOALS gives us a nice boost to 11/10. Five of Inter's six straight wins have seen this bet land.
Odds correct at 1435 BST (20/10/25)
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