The international cricket summer begins at Lord's on Wednesday as England and New Zealand face off in a two-match Test series – Richard Mann has three bets in his staking plan.
Cricket betting tips: England v New Zealand Test series June 2-14
2pts BJ Watling top series New Zealand batsman at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt James Anderson to be Man of the Match in first Test at 10/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Matt Henry to be Man of the Match in first Test at 20/1 (General)
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In less than a month’s time, at the conclusion of the final of the ICC World Test Championship, the curtain will come down on the career of one of New Zealand’s best – wicketkeeper-batsman BJ WATLING. This diminutive middle order rock and ever-reliable gloveman will sign off from professional cricket at the Ageas Bowl, he hopes, with New Zealand crowned as the best Test team in the world and his own legacy embedded in his country's cricket folklore.
When thinking of great wicketkeepers in the history of the game, one would be forgiven for not immediately looking to Watling. In fact, even to this day, Watling remains unheralded and criminally underrated. That really shouldn’t be the case.
Watling’s current Test average of 38.11 compares favourably with many more illustrious names past and present – Adam Gilchrist and Kumar Sangakkara patently on another level with the bat – and when he signs off, he will do so with a better Test batting record than Brad Haddin, MS Dhoni and Mark Boucher. With 267 dismissals, Watling has more victims than any other New Zealand keeper.
His 36th birthday fast approaching, Watling has concluded that enough is enough, with such a significant tour for the Black Caps offering the promise of the perfect farewell in a country in which he has already enjoyed plenty of success.
From three Tests on these shores, Watling averages 56.80 having struck a brilliant hundred against an England attack featuring James Anderson, Stuart Broad and Mark Wood in Leeds in 2015. That average barely dips (55.57) when also taking into account home matches against England and Watling’s mammoth double-century broke the likes of Broad and Jofra Archer when these two sides met at the Bay Oval in 2019.
Unsurprisingly, Watling ended that two-match series as New Zealand’s leading runscorer – rewarding readers of these pages with a 12/1 winner – and with Sky Bet going 16/1 this time around, he has to be a bet to repeat the feat.
While Watling clearly enjoys playing against England, generally demonstrating the type of patience and solid game plan needed to succeed against such a fine seam attack, the likelihood of him taking up his customary position at number six in the batting order – ahead of Mitchell Santner, Daryl Mitchell or Colin de Grandhomme – means he should be ideally placed for betting purposes.
As we have seen time and time again in England, opening the batting against the Dukes ball can be a thankless task, particularly with Anderson and Broad still going strong, and backing the middle order of visiting teams appeals as an angle to explore given the hosts haven’t yet found a world-class spinner to replace Graeme Swann.
This point was illustrated last summer when Jermaine Blackwood topped West Indies’ run charts from number six, while there were runs for Pakistan’s middle order when they toured England a few weeks later.
Williamson worth opposing after torrid preparation
The obvious negative in siding with Watling, or anyone else in the New Zealand middle order, is the presence of Kane Williamson at number three. The Kiwi captain is a giant of the game with a career average a touch over 54, and 24 hundreds from only 83 Tests.
With Virat Kohli and Steve Smith not quite as prolific in the last year or so, there is a sound case to back up the argument that Williamson is the best batsman in the world across red and white-ball cricket, and he averages in excess of 40 against England.
Still, while Watling has thrived here in the past, Williamson only averages 30.87 in four Tests in England – further evidence, perhaps, of just how challenging these conditions are for those batting at or near to the top of the order. Nevertheless, with an apparently flawless technique built around solid defence, soft hands and an ability to play beautifully late, Williamson really ought to improve on those numbers in the next few weeks.
All that said, taking 6/4 about a man whose preparation for this series has been dogged by a curtailed IPL season and quarantine after quarantine makes little appeal, particularly when considering he will likely have to face Anderson and Broad at their freshest and with a new Dukes ball sure to talk following weeks of wet weather.
Fresh off the back of 157 in his most recent Test appearance, the dogged Henry Nicholls could prove a big runner in this market coming in at number five. Another gritty character, he is building himself an impressive record, though expect Broad to provide a stern examination for him from around the wicket.
Like Nicholls, and of course, Williamson, Ross Taylor typifies this current New Zealand team in so much that he can pack a punch when needed, but has the ability to grit his teeth and do the hard yards in challenging circumstances. That might be the requirement for batsmen in this series and a hundred and three fifties from seven Tests in England confirms Taylor to be another vital component in a well-rounded New Zealand batting line-up.
England, even with Anderson and Broad firing on all cylinders, will expect tough work in the days ahead, but with Williamson arriving on the back of no red-ball cricket and Taylor having been struggling for fitness, the veteran pace duo will sense an opportunity to make inroads.
Should that prove to be the case, New Zealand’s man for a crisis on so many occasions might be well placed to stage yet another defiant counter-attack in a career that has been typified by such performances. With the extra motivation to finish this thoroughly commendable career on a high, Watling looks set for a big series and has to be a bet at anything around the 16/1 mark.
Watching brief on Wagner as swingers appeal most
With Trent Boult missing the first Test at Lord’s, Neil Wagner very nearly made the staking plan, just as he did in the aforementioned preview in 2019. Wagner is a brilliant, wholehearted operator whose fine bouncer means he has developed into a genuine strike bowler for New Zealand.
The problem with betting Wagner here is that while he is known as the man to employ the short stuff on flat wickets, when the ball has stopped swinging or when New Zealand are wanting to rough up the tail, I’m not sure that will be needed as much in these conditions.
Kissing the pitch and relying on sideways movement will surely be the plan of attack for both bowling units and as such, Tim Southee and the well-touted Kyle Jamieson will be expected to come to the fore. Given his record in county cricket for Kent, I’d be hopeful of good things from Matt Henry, too, but he isn’t certain to retain his spot when Boult returns, and the waters are just too murky to encourage a bet.
It’s a similar story in the top England series bowler market, with ANDERSON’s record at Lord’s and Edgbaston so strong that the 15/8 about him would be well worth taking if he was guaranteed to play both matches. The fact is, with India up next and an Ashes series in Australia on the horizon, rest and rotation might be the order of the day this summer and taking a strong view on the series markets won’t be easy.
However, looking at Lord’s in isolation, Anderson has to come into calculations given he is a certain starter for the summer opener and that his record on this ground is so strong. Anderson has claimed 103 wickets at Lord’s at an average of 23.89 since debuting in London back in 2003, with his last appearance seeing him claim match figures of 9-43 against India in 2018.
On recent evidence, Anderson might even be a better bowler now and there has been enough in the wickets at Lord’s so far this season to suggest the Lancashire seamer will be afforded plenty of assistance from the surface.
In the hope, and belief, England will at least be competitive against a very good New Zealand side, Anderson looks worth supporting for Man of the Match honours at 10/1.
Sticking with the same market and wanting to hedge my bets and have a New Zealand win at Lord’s on side, I’ll split stakes with the aforementioned HENRY at 20/1.
With Boult set to miss the Lord’s Test, Henry might only get one bite of the cherry in this series, but he has all the attributes to be a real handful with the Dukes ball in English conditions. In fact, it was as recently as 2018 when Henry claimed 75 wickets from only 11 matches when starring for Kent in the County Championship and he put that experience to good use when bowling so well against England in the World Cup final at Lord’s the following summer.
Henry will go under the radar this week, but he is armed with a natural outswinger and the ability to go the other way, while being quick to take away a batsman’s feet if needed. I’m convinced he’ll be hard work for England’s at Lord’s and should the tourists prevail, I’m happy to bet that Henry plays a significant part.
I am excited to see how Ollie Robinson goes when he is eventually handed his England debut, and should he replace Anderson in Birmingham, then might be the time to strike a bet.
Robinson looks a fine bowler, certainly in first-class cricket anyway, and while stepping up to this level – particularly abroad further down the line – will ask even more of him, everything he has done for Sussex would suggest he is ready for the next step.
I’m not sure he’ll start at Lord’s, with Broad, Anderson and Craig Overton possibly ahead of him, and one of Mark Wood and Ollie Stone expected to play as England accommodate that point of difference that will be needed Down Under.
Keep Robinson in mind for later in the summer when he is likely to make the recommended bets at some stage.
Pope passed over after India struggles
Similar comments apply to Ollie Pope following his impressive start to the county season with Surrey. At the time of writing, Pope has amassed 555 runs at 61.66 in the County Championship so far this year and as regular readers of these pages will know, he is a player who I expect to prove himself the real deal in the next few years.
Nevertheless, he comes into the international summer on the back of a lean run of scores in India, and with Dan Lawrence for company in the middle order, will know he needs runs before Ben Stokes and Jos Buttler return to the side. I don’t for one minute think England would leave Pope out just yet – he is very much their future – but he needs runs to justify his place in the side and the obvious changes he has made to his stance and set-up since India remain untested at this level.
Under normal circumstances, I’d be advising Pope at 11/2 for top England series runscorer – in what might be a match against Joe Root – but there are enough questions needing to be answered to put me off.
And that is this series in microcosm: two fine sides with key players either missing or coming into it with little recent red-ball cricket, and two very strong and experienced seam attacks that are capable of exploiting favourable bowling conditions should the British summer fail to make an appearance.
Many a shrewd judge will argue that as the higher ranked side coming into this series – they are ICC World Championship finalists after all – New Zealand should be backed for the series at 7/2. However, much of their recent success has been built around strong results at home, while the hosts remain a good side in their own conditions.
India notwithstanding, England have made some big strides in the last couple of years with series wins in South Africa and Sri Lanka sandwiched between home victories over West Indies and Pakistan last summer.
While absences in the batting has the potential to cost the home side, Root, Pope, Rory Burns and Zak Crawley still make up four of England’s first choice top six, and player unavailability might not stand up as a valid excuse should they lose the series.
I can certainly see the sense in backing New Zealand – and they probably are a touch of value – but I expect this to be a close series, and given it will be played over only two Tests, the draw looks a big runner to me, more specifically the 1-1 series correct score.
I’ll stick with Watling to fly solo in the series outrights, with swingers Anderson and Henry backed to boost the coffers at the start of a huge summer of international cricket.
Posted at 1840 BST on 30/05/21
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