Paul Krishnamurty previews the mouthwatering series between England and India, with bets for the first Test and beyond.
Cricket betting tips: England vs India
1pt England to win the series 3-1 at 9/1 (General)
1pt Joe Root to score a first-innings century at 5/1 (Sky Bet, bet365)
2pts Harry Brook to score a first-innings fifty at 13/8 (General)
0.5pt Harry Brook to score a first-innings century at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Dhruv Jurel top first-innings India batsman at 7/1 (BoyleSports)
3pts Brydon Carse over 109.5 player performance points at 5/6 (bet365)
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After several months of ODIs and T20 cricket of the highest calibre, Test cricket is now centre stage. As South Africa celebrate new status as World Test champions, the most exciting and probably competitive series of 2025 gets underway at Headingley on Friday, with England and India competing for the inaugural Anderson-Tendulkar Trophy.
Head-to-head
In 24 Tests between these two over the past decade, India lead 14-8, with two drawn matches. Those numbers are skewed by 14 being played in India, where home advantage is probably more critical than anywhere in the world. England lead 6-3 in their home matches.
When they last met in England, however, the hosts were arguably lucky to come away with a 2-2 draw. The final Test was delayed due to Covid-19 and rescheduled for the following summer, neutralising India’s momentum and leaving them predictably underprepared for the standalone finale.
Form guide
India's form is hard to assess, as they haven’t played Test cricket since their winter tour of Australia. Indeed, their lack of recent red ball cricket is a huge cause for concern, explaining why England are clear favourites at a best-priced 8/11 to win the first Test.
That tour of Australia ended badly, losing 3-1 despite a superb opening victory in Perth. Previously, they suffered a massive upset, losing 3-0 at home to New Zealand, ending a long run of dominant home series.
Their away form, however, has always been patchy at best when up against the top sides. Since the aforementioned 2-2 draw in England, they lost and drew two series away to South Africa, and comprehensively lost the WTC final against Australia at the Oval. Including that, they have won only six of 27 Tests in England this century, losing 15.
With Virat Kohli now retired, Shubman Gill assumes the captaincy and a very tough opening task. This side has plenty to prove.
England can also be regarded as in a transitional phase, adjusting to life without their talismanic pacemen Jimmy Anderson and Stuart Broad. It would be foolish to read too much into predictably one-sided series at home to the much inferior West Indies and Sri Lanka, or defeat away to Pakistan in very unfavourable conditions. A winter series victory in New Zealand, however, was very promising.
Their only Test since that New Zealand tour was a mismatch against Zimbabwe. Victory was facile but the fact Zimbabwe passed 200 twice doesn't reflect too well on their bowling. Moreover, it is highly doubtful that promising spinner Shoaib Bashir will prove anywhere near as effective against India.
Grounds guide
The historic trends at Headingley are perhaps the clearest, starkest in world cricket. It’s all about the overheads. If the sun is shining, batters should make hay. Scoring is rapid and 500-plus totals are realistic. But with cloud cover, 100 can be a daunting target.
For example, India were skittled for just 78 on the first morning here in 2021. Australia bowled England out for just 67 in 2019. Pakistan failed to reach 200 in either innings in 2018. Sri Lanka were all out for 91 in 2016. If skies are grey, back extreme unders on the run lines.
It is perhaps no wonder, therefore, that England have won their last five Headingley Tests, given their knowledge of, and suitability to, these conditions.
Writing four days out, adding the obvious caveat about changeable English weather, the forecast looks great. Hot, with good visibility and little chance of rain. Scores in county cricket have generally been high so prepare for more of the same – but be prepared to reverse strategy if conditions change.
Best bets and in-play strategy
Regardless of England's imperfections, pitch and weather conditions, this likely revolves around one key question. Are India sufficiently prepared? Their tour consists of just one match behind closed doors, and outings for some players against England Lions. With the IPL finishing later than usual, these players have minimal recent red ball practice and are not arriving fresh.
If they can overcome those negatives, India are more than a match for England, as we may see later in the series. They are certainly not inferior in the bowling department, whatever the conditions, although the irreplaceable Jasprit Bumrah will play only three of the five Tests. But an opener at Headingley, with little prep, is a daunting challenge.
The draw simply isn't in play. Twenty-two of the last 23 Tests at Headingley produced results, with the exception being significantly rain affected. England's odds are short, but fair. This looks a good time to back them for a 3-1 SERIES CORRECT SCORE bet.
I expect we will see at least four results from the five Tests. Win this opener and odds of 98/1 will shorten considerably, and stay so unless or until India win two Tests.
Specifically for this first Test, my plan is to employ a tried and trusted in-play strategy, which has consistently paid dividends in this format. The aim is to capitalise on the changes in momentum which characterise most Test matches, and back both results at enhanced odds.
Once the toss is made, set targets on the exchange to back both results at double the odds. See below for an example, with current Betfair odds in brackets.
- Back England at 10 units @ 2.4 (1.7) to return 24 units
- Back India 4.8 units @ 5.0 (3.0) to return 24 units
There are no runs lines out as yet but, if batting in sunshine, I will be backing England to score 400 and 450 plus. That would very likely require at least one of their batsmen making a century. Eight Tests at Headingley over the past decade produced 12 centuries. Of those, 10 went to batters coming in at four or later (number six being the most common). Evidently, avoiding the new ball and facing the softer, older ball is a key advantage at this ground.
Given that the odds about England’s numbers four and five – JOE ROOT and HARRY BROOK – making centuries, look solid value. Root made 121 against India here in 2021, and has two from 10 Headingley appearances. 7/1 about Brook is way better than his six from 25 first innings in Tests implies. Ditto 13/8 for a first-innings 50, which he has achieved on 13 from 25 attempts. Now captain, this is Brook’s first Test at his home ground.
With doubts about so many of India’s batters, DHRUV JUREL’s three 50s against England Lions looks a good marker. Again, he’ll bat at the ideal time, in the middle order.
Finally, one bet on bet365’s player performance markets. This awards 20 points for a wicket, 10 per catch, 1 per run. BRYDON CARSE comfortably beat his 109.5 line on three out of five Tests in his short, highly promising career. I expect England’s pacemen to dominate here and Carse is no slouch with the bat either.
Published at 1100 BST on 17/06/25
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