Ashes squad announcement: Do Ben Stokes' England have what it takes in Australia?

I’d like to think of myself as an optimist. Those closest to me may disagree, but in a game like ours, I’d say it’s important to maintain a positive outlook when you can.

Perhaps it’s true what they say, that it’s the hope that kills you, so I’ll whisper this one quietly: I reckon England have a puncher’s chance of winning back the Ashes this winter.

There, cards on the table. In truth, I’ve wanted to say it for a while. History might be against Ben Stokes’ England, and bookmakers make the hosts strong favourites, but this is not one of the great Australian teams. It has been, but cracks are starting to form.

It might not be as bad as when Xavier Doherty and Michael Beer (remember that one?) were Australia’s main spinners for the 2010/2011 series, but the current batting line-up has more holes than a string vest. Credit to our very own Graham Cunningham for allowing me to steal that line, over and over again.

At 38, Usman Khawaja is looking every bit his age and one hundred in Sri Lanka aside, his returns over the last two years have been poor. Nevertheless, Khawaja is locked in to open the batting for the Ashes, highly likely alongside spunky young gun Sam Konstas who might make a good player one day, but is currently a long way short of that. David Warner, at long last, is gone.

Cameron Green, averaging 34.02 with the bat in Test cricket, has been brought along for the number three spot for some time, and Marnus Labuschagne’s remarkable fall from grace has only accelerated that journey. I happen to think Green will be fine in time, but not at three. His future surely lies in the middle order.

That’s a weak top three, much weaker than England’s if you believe the recent numbers. Australia fans will rightly look at their middle order as a source of comfort, but I’ll see your Steve Smith, Travis Head and Alex Carey, and raise you Joe Root, Harry Brook, Ben Stokes and Jamie Smith.

Australia do boast an outstanding bowling attack. I suspect we’ll look back and reason that the quartet of Pat Cummins, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and off spinner Nathan Lyon was one of the best ever assembled in Test cricket.

But Cummins, captain and all, is a major injury doubt, currently in a race against time to overcome lumbar bone stress in his back. Take it from someone who's been there, this is not good, and you’d be a brave man to bet that Cummins will play anything close to five matches this winter. I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed the whole party.

Veteran Scott Boland is waiting in the wings, but I’ve long argued the fast bowling depth just isn’t there for Australia after the current crop, and Boland was taken apart in England back in 2023.

So why, then, do I feel so underwhelmed after England’s Ashes squad announcement on Tuesday?

There were no surprises with the batting. Jacob Bethell was an inspired pick for last winter’s Test series in New Zealand and for what it’s worth, would be my choice to bat at number three in the first Test in Perth. Bethell was the obvious option to travel as the ‘spare batsman’ regardless.

And the heavy artillery in the travelling bowling group is apparently locked and loaded, with Jofra Archer and Mark Wood reported to be fit and raring to go. Brydon Carse would appear to have all the attributes to bowl well in Australian conditions, and the ideal temperament for Ashes cricket too.

Stokes and head coach Brendon McCullum have made leftfield selections the norm since taking charge. Bethell’s inclusion and Ben Duckett’s recall were two terrific picks, and Moeen Ali’s surprise return for the 2023 Ashes proved a shrewd move.

There have been some poor ones along the way, though. Josh Hull springs to mind, and asking Dan Lawrence to spend months travelling as the spare batter, to then end his international career following a failed stint when shunted up to open seemed very harsh at the time. Especially when you consider how much rope Zak Crawley has been given. I’m still not sure what the plan was with Sam Cook this summer, either.

And now we have the case of Will Jacks – the latest ‘we know better than everyone else’ selection. Has Jacks been selected as the second spinner to Shoaib Bashir, or the back-up all-rounder should Stokes get inured at some stage? I suspect it’s a bit of both, but he’s only bowled 74.1 overs for Surrey in the County Championship this season and has been batting at number seven in England’s ODI side.

He's a tall spinner, something England have grown fascinated with ahead of an away Ashes series, which is the main reason why Bashir has been backed to the hilt. And to his credit, Bashir has done pretty well in tough circumstances, learning on the job and often having to bowl first as England have preferred, in the main, to chase.

But between Jacks and Bashir, there is very little experience there, and not much variety as a pair of right arm off spinners who rely on bounce more than any great skill and craft. The fact Bashir can’t get a look in for Somerset tells its own story, and I think Jack Leach, 50 County Championship wickets and counting this summer, is dreadfully unlucky not to be on the plane.

Back to Jacks, and it’s entirely feasible he starts the series as England’s frontline spinner in Perth, where England might reckon pace is king and that Jacks’ batting will be a huge asset at number eight. Bits and pieces cricketers – it all feels very 1990s. And afterwards, he could find himself playing as that all-rounder at some stage, if Stokes pulls up lame, which history suggests he will.

To that end, Sam Curran can also count himself a trifle unfortunate, too. He’s a better all-round cricketer than Jacks – and that’s not meant to be a criticism of Jacks who is a fine limited-overs operator and just the type of dynamic player this England management wants. But Curran has experience of Test cricket, and Ashes cricket, and looked a ready-made replacement for Stokes when starting out, especially when dominating against India back in 2018.

I know it’s a different format, but Curran stole the show in this summer’s edition of The Hundred and while his bowling style and lack of height isn’t ideal for Australian conditions, he’d be my man to play as the all-rounder were Stokes not available. Curran is a batsman on the up who has averaged over fifty in the County Championship this year, and a very handy fourth seamer who has always had a habit of making things happen.

Rehan Ahmed is another entitled to be wondering what more he could’ve done this summer, or how Jacks has jumped ahead of him in the pecking order. Rehan has made five hundreds in the County Championship and taken 23 at 19.00 with his leg spin.

With no Leach, Rehan or even Liam Dawson, spin and that back-up all-rounder are potential areas of significant weakness for England. They have really gambled on Bashir taking a big step forward in conditions that ought to suit, and in Jacks rising to the occasion.

It's pretty clear that England's bowling eggs have been placed squarely in the fast basket. All eyes will be on that man Archer. He’s X-factor, of course he is, but he only averages 30.62 with the ball in this format, and 35.48 against right-handers. Are we in danger of expecting too much from Archer on the back of a dreadful spate of injuries?

He and Wood are key to England's plans, but both have struggled to stay on the park and I thought it was a touch disconcerting the latter didn’t feature in the final round of County Championship matches for Durham, having stated he would when missing his intended comeback in the last Test match of the summer in late July. It’s clear this rehabilitation hasn’t been plain sailing for Wood.

I’d be a little bit concerned about that, so how Archer is managed through the series will be immensely important. One would expect England will want to go hard at Australia in Perth, with Archer and Wood all guns blazing, but with four Tests to follow and some worries about just how those bodies will hold up, England will need to make the right selection calls.

I’m not sure they’ve done that with Jacks, or by selecting just one frontline spinner, a very inexperienced one at that. But perhaps the biggest surprise was a recall for Matthew Potts who has hardly got a look in of late, but is suddenly back in the club.

I suspect England want Potts’ durability and willing attitude for this tour and he could well prove a nice foil for the likes of Archer and Wood, but he does look unsuited in style to Australian conditions and certainly not an upgrade on Chris Woakes who struggled so badly Down Under with the Kookaburra ball.

I’m much more excited by Josh Tongue who I rate highly, but haven’t got him down as attack leader just yet, and you do wonder what the make-up of England’s attack will be by the time the Boxing Day Test comes around.

This squad doesn't leave England with a lot of wiggle room should injuries to fast bowlers crop up, or worse still, their captain. And we haven’t even discussed form concerns or pressure surrounding perennial underperformers Ollie Pope and the aforementioned Crawley.

England’s best XI, fit and playing their best cricket, can more than match this current Australia team, but the tourists are going to need a lot of luck along the way.

And all of a sudden, I’m less hopeful than I was. Perhaps it’s the realisation of the enormity of the task ahead, and the acceptance that while Australia have their potential problems, so do England.

It’s the hope that kills you isn’t it.