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By Tim Clement
"The bookies are rarely wrong," they say, so leading up to major sporting events the vast majority of the time we accept that the head of betting markets are correct.
The outright odds have been moulded by millions across markets around the world and assessed by some of sport’s most informed minds, leaving us typically assessing the wild cards in the field in hope of an anomaly.
But, somehow, in the betting for this year’s men’s US Open, world No 1 and defending champion Rafael Nadal is not the favourite.
The 21-year-old is widely considered the future of men’s tennis but boasts just one quarter-final appearance at a major (French Open, 2018) and, like for Andy Murray, it will take some time to put Lendl’s insight into practice.
Marin Cilic offers more appeal from that section given his experience of delivering on the big stage, none more so than winning here in 2014, and is my .
He’s reached the quarter-finals or better in his last two majors and last two visits here but has failed to make the final, while he’s lost both of his 2018 meetings with potential semi-final opponent Nadal.
The Tower of Tandil’s draw is also littered with dangerous opponents, including fellow three-time Grand Slam winners Stan Wawrinka (40/1) and Andy Murray (50/1).
Both lack the form to suggest they can go on and win again here but have the weapons to dent or even down Del Potro’s chances.
So we come back to Nadal as the man who has comfortably the most convincing case as he looks to cement his status as 2018’s dominant player.
Posted at 1130 BST on 26/08/18