Qatar Exxonmobil Open

• Doha, Qatar (outdoor hard)

The Doha tournament has been a big beneficiary of the changes forced upon the 2021 ATP Tour calendar.

Relegated to something of an after-thought by the creation of the ATP Cup in 2020, it would have had no chance of attracting a strong field in its usual January slot.

As it is, seven of the world’s top 20 will be in attendance this week, although the story will be all about just one of those men – Roger Federer.

Having recovered from knee surgery, something he underwent twice in 2020, the Swiss will play his first match in almost 14 months here.

Such is the greatness in the 39-year-old’s racquet that he’s no bigger than 4/1 to return with a victory. That’s a price which makes him second favourite behind top seed Dominic Thiem.

Doubtless the layers remember how Federer returned from his last lengthy injury lay-off – by winning the 2017 Australian Open.

But, four years on, I can’t have him at 4/1, no matter what he’s achieved in the game.

Judging him on his word, Federer doesn’t seem that fussed about how things go this week – Wimbledon is clearly his main target.

“It’s still about building up, being stronger fitter and better,” he said. “I hope that by Wimbledon I am going to be 100 per cent. Everything until then, see how it goes, I might surprise myself. But right now I take it day by day. Everything starts hopefully with the grass.”

I wouldn’t be surprised to see him to lose his first match. It will be against either Dan Evans or Jeremy Chardy, two players who have started 2021 impressively.

Chardy certainly made my shortlist at 50/1. He’s already reached two ATP semi-finals this season, winning eight matches at tour level.

He trails Federer 4-1 on the head-to-head but has regularly tested him – three of their matches have gone to a final set.

However, it’s another man who has troubled Federer in the past that I’m going to side with in this section, namely BORNA CORIC.

He played well in Rotterdam last week where he made the semi-finals.

The Croat faces a fairly quick transition to what will be faster courts – they are now on DecoTurf in Doha and the fact Petra Kvitova won the ladies’ event last week tells you the pace is fairly quick.

However, Coric has performed on such surfaces before and indeed that brings me back to his record against Federer, whom he beat on the fast Shanghai courts in 2018.

Overall he’s 2-3 v Federer with two of the defeats coming in a decider. He should be expected to test the Swiss if they do meet.

Coric’s path to a potential quarter-final with Federer is Malek Jaziri followed by Nikoloz Basilashvili or John Millman.

That looks decent enough and with the other seeds in this half being David Goffin and Denis Shapovalov, I think the price of 18/1 is a fair one.

Up in the top half, Thiem leads the way as he returns for the first time since a frankly disappointing Australian Open campaign.

The Austrian came back from the dead to beat Nick Kyrgios but Grigor Dimitrov then delivered a knockout punch in ruthless fashion with Thiem well short of his best form.

Ahead of his return, Thiem has admitted: "I can’t tell you exactly where I’m at. I want to find my rhythm as fast as possible, gaining self-confidence through victories."

That doesn’t sound like a man in a peak mental condition and at 3/1 he therefore looks pretty short, especially when you consider he may have to beat Melbourne semi-finalist Aslan Karatsev, ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT and Andrey Rublev just to make the final.

In what was a miserable preview last week, one thing I did get right was Rublev’s potential in Rotterdam where, at time of writing, he is contesting the final.

However, he’ll play here less than 48 hours after leaving the Netherlands which can’t be ideal. He’s definitely playing well enough to win here but he’s 9/2 this week – shorter than last and now facing a stronger field.

I’ll therefore leave him alone and instead go with Bautista Agut who looks a spot of value at 16/1.

The Spaniard famously beat Novak Djokovic in Doha a couple of years ago en route to the title and while the court surface is a tad different now, he’ll likely relish returning to a happy hunting ground.

RBA finished runner-up to Goffin in Montpellier recently to show he’s in good nick and I can therefore excuse the shock loss in the first round of Rotterdam just three days later.

He actually leads Thiem 3-1 in their previous meetings, although they were all a few years ago now.

Reilly Opelka has the potential to trouble Bautista Agut in round one – that would be typical after we backed him last week and he duly lost first up – but the big American has had problems playing the big points of late. He again failed in tie-breaks last week and Bautista Agut has really got stuck into his second serve in their previous meetings.

In what promises to be a competitive half of the draw, the battling Spaniard represents the best value.

Open 13 Provence

• Marseille, France (indoor hard)

The Gerflor surface in Marseille is known as one of the fastest on the ATP Tour and it makes strong sense to follow those with a game to match.

I remember backing Ugo Humbert here at a big price a couple of years ago only for him to lose in the semi-finals.

His ability to come forward and volley well is a good characteristic to have here, while he’s also French and that’s usually a good thing for punters in an event in France, as I mentioned in my Montpellier preview a couple of weeks ago.

Seven of the last 15 winners of this title have been from the host nation and Humbert will lead the home bid this time around.

While he will hold a good chance if he brings his A-game, I’m afraid to say there looks little value in him at 8/1.

Humbert disappointed in Montpellier when I tipped him at a similar price and he was also beaten early in Rotterdam last week, blowing match points (not for the first time) against Jeremy Chardy.

He’s also got a tough draw here with a meeting with either Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Feliciano Lopez first up. Both men thrive in fast conditions and it’s not difficult to envisage another narrow defeat in that one.

There’s also the presence of two-time defending champion Stefanos Tsitsipas in his half of the draw, while the top half is led by soon-to-be world number two Daniil Medvedev.

I’ll resist backing Humbert again, although I wouldn’t be surprised if he were to put it all together in these conditions.

Medvedev and Tsitsipas are the class of the field – the only top-20 players involved – but neither is above 7/2 and I’m also happy to pass them over.

Medvedev lost in his first match in Rotterdam to Dusan Lajovic so has hardly had much of a chance to play himself into form indoors.

He’s another with a testing draw with indoor specialist Egor Gerasimov no gimme in his (likely) opener. Jannik Sinner could follow with his fellow Russian Karen Khachanov, who played well in Rotterdam, seeded to progress to the semi-finals.

Tsitsipas has proved he can play on these slick courts over the past two years and is sure to have his backers.