Having lost ‘properly’ for the first time in 2020 in the French Open final, Novak Djokovic returns to action this week having taken the somewhat surprising decision to play in Vienna.
It’s been 13 years since he last appeared at this tournament. He won the title in 2007, although it was then played on a different type of indoor hardcourt – these days they are on Rebound Ace, as they have been since 2015.
The Serb arrives with plenty still to achieve in what was been another excellent year, even though it will end with just one of the three Grand Slam titles won.
He knows a deep run this week will secure the year-end world number one ranking for a sixth time, thus equalling Pete Sampras’ record.
Looking further forward, this is his sole warm-up for next month’s ATP Finals in London so he will certainly want matches under his belt in indoor conditions.
As with most events he enters, Djokovic starts a firm favourite, 11/10 being the best price about him claiming another trophy and, as I usually say when Djokovic is in the field, if he plays well, he’ll win.
Doubtless there will be plenty happy to back him, although those thinking of doing so should note the statistic that he has won just one of his last six indoor tournaments.
All six of those have been either those ATP Finals or the Paris Masters, ie high quality events, but although he technically steps down to 500-level here (the figure relates to the number of ranking points awarded to the winner), do not think he’s got it easy this week.
With the pandemic having forced the cancellation of the Swiss Indoors, which usually takes place this week in Basel, many more leading players have headed to Austria with the field containing six of the world’s top 10. The last direct acceptance was Hubert Hurkacz, ranked 31st.
Djokovic’s route to the final includes a tricky first-round match against compatriot Filip Krajinovic, a proven indoor performer and a player who beat the top seed at one of the summer’s exhibition events.
Borna Coric, a recent finalist in St Petersburg, could follow with Djokovic’s scheduled seeded opponents in the latter rounds being Diego Schwartzman, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Dominic Thiem.
Djokovic may be the most likely champion but at 11/10 I’ll happily take a more attractive option by seeking out a value play in the bottom half.
Home hope Thiem is the man seeded to reach the final from this section.
He had struggled in his homeland until last season when he won both here and in Kitzbuhel.
With such concerns now a thing of the past, the US Open champion certainly warrants respect.
However, this is his first foray indoors this year and there must be a chance he gets caught cold by a player already bedded into such conditions.
Likely second-round foe Stan Wawrinka is one such player who has been playing indoors recently and while Kei Nishikori doesn’t have the form to suggest he’ll beat Thiem in round one, he does hold a 3-2 lead on their head-to-head.
I think Thiem can be taken on and I’ll say the same about two other seeds in this half, Daniil Medvedev and Gael Monfils.
Medvedev has won just two of his last 10 indoor matches and faces Alex de Minaur in the first round.
The Antwerp finalist is worth considering at 45/1, while Medvedev’s likely second-round foe Felix Auger-Aliassime is another in-form and will have his backers at 35/1.
However, it is another big price I’ll take in this third quarter, namely PABLO CARRENO BUSTA at 50/1.
The Spaniard has been in fine form since the tour resumed in August, reaching the semi-finals of the US Open and the last eight at the French Open.
He moved indoors last week and lost in the first round in Antwerp to Ugo Humbert, but I pointed out how that was a tricky opener in my preview of that event here. PCB didn’t play badly but Humbert edged it 6-4 in the third and went on to justify our faith with the 20/1 shot going on to reach the final.
Carreno Busta can play indoors and conditions shouldn’t be too quick for him here – he won on a fairly slow indoor hardcourt in Moscow in 2016.
More recently, PCB made the semis in Rotterdam this year and at the back end of last season he was in the last four in Stockholm.
In Vienna 12 months ago, injury got the better of him as he was forced to quit his quarter-final with Thiem.
He’s the man facing Monfils first up but the Frenchman has looked a long way from his best of late and despite a decent record at this event, it’s hard to look past the fact he’s yet to win a match since lockdown ended.
Dennis Novak or Kevin Anderson in round two is far from the worst draw either.
Overall, I can see enough in Carreno Busta to warrant backing him to small stakes at 50/1 – it’s worth noting some firms have place terms of a third of the odds for a final spot rather than the usual half. I’ll take 50s with a firm who’ll pay a half, rather than 66s with one offering a third.
I’m also prepared to add ANDREY RUBLEV to the coupon in the bottom half at 12/1 given his impressive form.
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