Once dubbed ‘the fifth Slam’, the Miami Open certainly isn’t living up to that moniker in 2021.
A spate of withdrawals, most notably Messrs Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, mean that the world 118 is getting direct entry – surely the first time that’s happened at a Masters 1000 tournament since the category was created by the ATP Tour.
There are several reasons behind the tournament’s fall from grace but all stem from, you guessed it, Covid-19.
With only a few fans allowed, prize money has been massively reduced, putting some players off.
Others have opted out of a trip to the US given the changes to the calendar – the Indian Wells Masters in California usually precedes this event but that was cancelled this year leaving players in the awkward situation of having to head Stateside for potentially only one match. It’s back to Europe for the claycourt season after this.
There’s also the bubble life which has irked many players this season – it is hard to believe that didn’t come into the thinking of players with families, such as Federer and Djokovic.
Of course, a good field has still gathered in Miami – the world number 118, Denis Kudla, is hardly a bad player and 13 of the world’s top 20 will be in attendance.
As with many things in life right now, the disappointment comes from what has gone before – we’ve got used to seeing every leading player at this event, bar those with an injury.
Those who have committed head to the grounds of the Miami Dolphins’ Hard Rock Stadium, which staged the tournament for the first (and so far only) time in 2019 when Federer beat John Isner in the final. The stadium itself is not in use this year.
Prior to that, the event had taken place just outside the city on Key Biscayne.
Laykold has remained the surface across both venues. It is now also the surface of the US Open but conditions here tend to be slower than in New York.
The humid Florida air slows the balls down, fluffing them up quicker than elsewhere.
It is still possible to crush the balls and hit through the court, but it’s more difficult for those power players.
Talking of the balls, they’ve changed this year – the tournament having signed a new contract with Dunlop, who will replace Penn as official supplier. Their ATP Extra Duty ball will be used. We’ll have to see how if reacts to the conditions, although it is a ball used in many other hardcourt events around the world so the potential for controversy seems low.
OK, so the scene is set.
There will be no Big Three participation at a Masters tournament for the first time since 2004, a fact which opens the door wide for the younger generation.
Of his 14 ATP titles, six have been won in back-to-back fashion – the two Cologne events last season, Munich and Madrid in 2018 and Washington and Montreal in 2017. There are plenty of other examples of him making two finals in as many weeks, too.
Zverev also looks well drawn with Nikoloz Basilashvili, Karen Khachanov and David Goffin due to be his seeded opponents before the semi-finals.
All things considered, he looks worthy of support this week.
I’m also going to stick with ROBERTO BAUTISTA AGUT in this section – he’s in the top quarter with Medvedev.
The Spaniard delivered us a place win in Doha recently at 16/1, following on from a final appearance in Montpellier.
After that, the path through the draw looks pretty good and it’s certainly worth noting that RBA has won both of his previous meetings with Medvedev, seeded to be his quarter-final opponent.
At 28/1, Bautista Agut also makes the staking plan.
Conditions will be slower here but Shapovalov enjoyed these courts two years ago when he beat Tsitsipas en route to the last four where he found eventual champion Federer too good.
That run took his tournament record to 7-2 and there’s plenty to like about him at 28/1.
Nishikori is definitely on the upturn and I expect he will be relishing the opportunity to play here.
He lives in Florida having never left Bradenton where he attended the famous Nick Bollettieri academy, now owned and run by IMG, as a teenager.
In short, he’ll be in tune with the conditions better than almost anyone in the field and it’s no surprise to see he’s got some pretty good history at the Miami Open.
Nishikori made the final in 2016, while he has another semi-final and two quarter-final appearances on his CV.
Put it altogether and Nishikori looks a tempting price at 100/1.
He may have to beat Tsitsipas in round three but I’ve already picked holes in the Greek’s chances, while Nishikori won their only previous meeting.
Published at 1120 GMT on 23/03/21
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