Followers of our outright preview will already have an interest in this match with title pick Gauff having progressed with ease so far (we’ll gloss over the fact she’s now a bigger price than she started).
She could be vulnerable here – I’ve written many times before about how Keys is capable of hitting anyone off court when her game is ‘on’. It certainly was at this year’s Australian Open and perhaps my recent struggles can be traced back to the fact I didn’t back her on these pages at 50/1 back in January. That one will linger for years, I expect.
Keys also leads the head-to-head 3-2. It’s 1-0 on clay, although that came up at altitude in Madrid. Conditions should be slower in Paris.
The more defensive Gauff has been playing well though. She came into this event in good form and her displays at Roland Garros, where she is yet to lose a set, give no real reason for a re-evaluation of her title chances.
If pushed, I’d stick with Gauff to win this but is there any value in her at around 4/9? Not for me. Next…
I’ve seen barely anything of Boisson and I suspect I’m not alone in that boat.
That obviously makes this one hard to analyse.
The world number 361 stunned third seed Jessia Pegula in the last round and a lot of her success came from getting her forehand into play – the serve out wide on the ad side was delivered time and again.
If she is able to execute in the same way, you couldn’t write off the 13/2 chance, but Andreeva has more variety in her game and, having seen what Boisson is all about, you’d imagine she’ll be able to come up with a better counter plan.
As I wrote in the outright preview, I’ve not really been on the Andreeva bandwagon but she’s again delivering results when it matters. She’s yet to lose a set and my assessment of the 18-year-old probably needs to change. There’s clearly more to come.
Given what I do know, it’s hard to go against Andreeva here but, as a red-hot favourite, ways of siding with her look thin on the ground.
She’s only 2/5 to win in straight sets, while I’m not prepared to go under the 18.5 total games line, even though that may be the best way of backing her.
“It’s the best moment of my life.”
So said Bublik after his victory over Jack Draper in the last round, a match which saw him deliver a majestic performance.
Long-term followers of tennis will know Bublik is capable of that but, like many other mercurial talents, he’s much more likely to throw in something from the other end of the quality spectrum.
We’ve seen time and again over the years that Bublik’s game – a mixture of power-hitting and audacious shots – can quickly go badly wrong and, to me, it would be no surprise to see it disintegrate against the world number one in this contest.
The bookies clearly don’t expect another virtuoso display – or even if they do, they think Sinner will have all the answers.
Sinner is a best price of 1/33 with Bublik 25/1 to land another upset.
Anyone who has seen the Italian play since his return to the tour following his drugs ban would surely struggle to bet against him. He was on fire against Andrey Rublev the other night.
Maybe, just maybe, Bublik’s sometimes unorthodox play could cause problems but Sinner is really several levels above and I just don’t see that happening.
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