Novak Djokovic makes a rare appearance in a week before a Grand Slam in Belgrade this week.
Emotion has doubtless played part in his decision to change up his schedule with this being his homeland.
Whether it backfires in terms of the forthcoming French Open remains to be seen but what we do know is that when the world number one does play the week before a Slam, he usually goes full pelt – not something which can be said of every player.
He played and won Eastbourne when searching for form in 2017, while last year he was champion in Cincinnati the week before the US Open, although on that occasion it wasn’t really a case of opting to play – it was more forced upon him given it was the first week of the post-lockdown season.
He’ll arguably have added motivation to win here given last month’s visit to the same venue (for the Serbia Open) ended in semi-final defeat to Aslan Karatsev.
Djokovic clearly wasn’t happy with his form following that loss, which came quick on the heels of defeat to Dan Evans in Monte Carlo, but a bit of a break seemed to work well as he looked much better in Rome where he won a high-quality contest with Stefanos Tsitsipas, battled to victory over Lorenzo Sonego and then pushed Rafael Nadal to a deciding set in the final.
In a field which contains just one other top-30 player – Gael Monfils, who hasn’t played much of late and has barely won a match in a year – it’s no surprise to see him going off a red-hot favourite at around 1/3.
With a first-round bye, he’ll only need to win four matches and probably will.
However, the usual pre-Slam warning is required – any slight niggle can bring a withdrawal in a week such as this.
It’s therefore fair to say I’ve no interest in backing Djokovic at such a price.
Admittedly the top half seems more likely to produce the winner.
Top seed Lorenzo Sonego was last seen reaching the semis of the Masters 1000 tournament in Rome. He’s subsequently chalked up as the 3/1 favourite here.
But also in the first quarter is his fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti, who was a set up against Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Lyon semi-finals on Saturday before losing in three.
That’s two of the top three in the betting in the same quarter. Only one can make the semis so this looks a tricky call.
It might be worth looking at JAN-LENNARD STRUFF in the weaker second quarter.
The German made a significant breakthrough in Munich earlier this month, reaching his first ATP Tour final following a string of last-four losses.
He went on to fully test Andrey Rublev in Rome, losing only 6-4 in the decider.
His heavy, flat hitting make him a dangerous opponent in slow conditions and this week’s weather forecast has plenty of rain in it.
With a first-round bye and a decent-looking draw – Tommy Paul is the other seed in this quarter – Struff looks to have a nice path to the last four so it could be worth getting him on the coupon at 12/1.
Published at 1830 BST on 22/05/21
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