ATP Hamburg European Open - Men's singles

• Hamburg, Germany (outdoor clay)

Backing the favourite again proved to be bad business in Rome last week with Rafael Nadal losing to Diego Schwartzman in the quarter-finals.

Given it was his first tournament in six months, it wasn’t the biggest shock of Nadal’s career, but again underlined how unpredictable things are in this post-lockdown period.

Sadly last week’s picks in this column disappointed and were in no position to take advantage of the Spaniard’s slip but choosing from those lower down the market again looks the way to go this week in Hamburg – the last tournament before the French Open begins next weekend.

That fact is always worth noting.

How hard will players want to push themselves with such an important event looming large?

Nadal’s loss in Rome will have raised hopes among the rest of the field for Roland Garros, among them Daniil Medvedev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Roberto Bautista Agut. All three line up here.

But as well as wondering how much they’ll want a deep run this week, there are other reasons to question how far the trio will go.

Both Medvedev and Bautista Agut played well on the hardcourts upon the tour’s resumption but the pair are now playing their first claycourt matches of the year.

Medvedev has never won a title on this surface, while RBA’s one and only clay crown was claimed back in 2014.

I’m happy to swerve both, and Tsitsipas too.

He was pretty woeful in his loss to Jannik Sinner in Rome last week and has admitted his switch onto the clay hasn’t gone well.

Take out the top three in the betting and you are straight into double-figure prices.

In the top half of the draw, Andrey Rublev is a tempting 12/1. He was in fine form at the US Open, losing in the quarter-finals to Medvedev in straight sets. Despite the scoreline it was a tight match – Rublev lost serve only once.