This year’s World Championship has had a twist at almost every turn, and quarter-finals Wednesday produced the biggest of all as Ronnie O’Sullivan failed to add a single frame to his 10-6 overnight lead over Luca Brecel and crashed out to the mercurial Belgian.
O’Sullivan had started the day as strong favourite for the tournament, one he has won seven times already, including in 2022, but Mark Selby is now clear outright favourite at 11/10 following his demolition job on John Higgins.
That pair, with eight Crucible wins between them, resumed at 4-4 but any thoughts that this one might go the distance were way off the mark as Selby won five of the six frames played in the afternoon before they were hauled off ahead of the evening session.
Despite having to play back-to-back sessions, Selby cruised into an eighth World Championship semi-final, wrapping up his 13-7 victory early enough to ensure he should be fresh as paint when he locks horns with Mark Allen in the last four.
Allen has been the player of the season so far, scooping three titles, including the first leg of the Triple Crown Series at the UK Championship in York in November. In his own words, it hasn’t always been ‘pretty to watch’ but he has found a way to win matches he used to lose, with a B-game that is now so hard to beat.
The biggest improvement I have seen from Allen is between his ears and I’d argue the best trait he now possesses is his deep reserves of patience. He displayed that in spades when holding onto Jak Jones’ coattails in the last eight before pulling away in the home straight, and also when beating Zhou Yuelong and Ding Junhui from behind in two major finals earlier this term.
He looked very sharp against Bingham, but he didn’t meet a great deal of resistance there and most certainly will from Selby. If Allen is banking on battling to another big win, he won’t find Selby as generous as Bingham was, or indeed Ding when he blew a big lead over Allen in the UK final in York. Selby is the master tactician, and nobody scraps better than he does.
If this match goes down that route, it’s hard to see Selby losing, for all it could make for grim viewing. And if the match is more open, Selby ought to fancy his chances given how well he played in the latter stages against Higgins. We shouldn’t forget that Higgins came into that one having just trounced the in-form Wilson in the previous round. It looks strong form.
Whichever way you look at it – and it is significant that of the remaining four contenders, Selby is the only one who has been there and done it before at the Crucible – Selby looks to hold all the aces and should, as expected, he battle past Allen, he will be a short-priced favourite in the final.
Followers of these pages already have Selby onside at 6/1, having been advised in my outright tournament preview, and while the value has all gone, I remain confident and can’t see a bet elsewhere in the outright market, not even for cover.
Others might disagree and feel Brecel is the play from here at 3/1 following his brilliant comeback win over O’Sullivan. He is around the 1/2 mark to beat SI JIAHUI and reach the final, but I’d advise some caution here.
On his performances against O’Sullivan and Mark Williams, he ought to have too many guns for Si, but we shouldn’t forget that he arrived in Sheffield this year having never previously won a match at the Crucible. He scraped past Ricky Walden in round one and while he has clearly turned a big corner in regards to this tournament, he isn’t bombproof.
In a long match played over four sessions, I’m happy to chance that Brecel will come unstuck somewhere along the way and am backing the impressive Si to take him down.
Anything above 6/4 in the match market is fair, but the handicap markets have offered some good value throughout the tournament and Si (-1.5) at 2/1 makes more appeal. Alternatively, the correct score market is worth a second look, with SI TO WIN 17-12, SI TO WIN 17-13 and SI TO WIN 17-14 available at 18/1, 16/1 and 16/1 respectively.
Try backing all three correct scores to small stakes, with the main bet on Si on the handicap.
Preview published at 0745 BST on 27/04/23