For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
There is an oft trotted-out cliché in football, the most desperate of sports bar none, that bad luck evens itself out over the course of a season. Well, our recent good fortune in the Six Nations came to an abrupt halt in the very last play in the Ireland-Wales game a fortnight ago.
We had scraped winning handicap recommendations by the skin of our teeth in the Scotland-France and France-Italy games before the Dublin encounter, without literally a point to spare. And, in truth, we probably didn’t deserve to cop in either.
The same was true in Dublin a fortnight ago, too. I called the match bang wrong, with Ireland dominating in all areas, and how they were only three points to the good with 80 minutes up on the clock was a mystery.
Well, not quite a mystery as Jonathan Sexton’s moderate goal-kicking and some outstanding Welsh defence were the reasons.
In fact, Wales, who had opened up their opponents relatively easily to score two converted tries in the final quarter, were well set up to snatch the most unlikely of victories in the final play of the game, with centre-field ball on the halfway line, in broken play, against an Irish team coming to the end of their tether.
If Gareth Anscombe’s looping pass had eluded Jacob Stockdale coming in from the wing, then the Welsh had two players clear in an open-field scenario, and the try was on. But Stockdale snaffled it to see Ireland home by 10 points – scuppering the Wales +10 bet – and I can’t tell you how pig-sick I felt when he went in under the posts.
And, of course, a Welsh win (or draw) would have seen us land our 'No Grand Slam winner' bet, which should have already copped were it not for those four minutes of Sexton genius in Paris on the opening weekend.
But the more you view the Ireland match as a whole, the more you had to concede that the home side were not flattered by the winning score line at all. Far from it.
So can they back up at home to Scotland or, more accurately, cover the general nine- and 10-point starts they are asked to concede?
I wasn’t impressed by them at all in their opening matches against France and Italy, but the manner in which they pulverised and dominated Wales for large swathes of that match really was a sight to behold. Their hunger and energy on the ball swept Wales aside, and only some monumental defence by the visitors kept them in the game.
The Irish went into that match missing some key players – and they have lost centre Chris Farrell for the tournament now, too – but they welcome Tadhg Furlong and Iain Henderson back into the fold (the latter is on the bench), and Garry Ringrose at centre in place of Farrell, and it appears that home advantage is more important than ever this year.