Short-term thinking on the punting front will inevitably lead to long-standing hardship, and the old recency bias argument comes starkly into play when assessing this weekend’s Six Nations matches.
As will the weather, but more on that shortly.
Now, I was as pleased as anyone to see France beat England 24-17 in Paris, but were they anywhere near as good as every report seemed to claim?
I didn’t watch the game live as I was racing in Dublin and they weren’t showing it on the TVs in Leopardstown – some hurling nonsense got preference in the bar I was in – but all the chat was that the home side were full value for their win.
I know I am a contrarian soul at the best of times – and that is a generous description – but it’s not the game I watched when I belatedly sat down to view it on Tuesday afternoon.
There is little doubt that the French showed a lot more backbone and defensive nous than of late, and they demonstrated flashes of their individual brilliance in attack, notably when scrum-half Antoine Dupont used his vision and gears on the blind-side to set up his captain’s second try to make it 24-0 in the second-half.
They also kicked very well out of hand in the main, and Anthony Bouthier at full-back has a fair lash on him.
They may even have kept England scoreless in the final quarter had Nigel Owens and his TMO bothered to investigate the reason for the all-in fracas after that try, as Luke Cowan-Dickie should have been given a yellow card for a late, and what looked a very cheap and pretty hefty, flop on Charles Ollivon.
You also have to view the match in the context of the wet weather. It didn’t look too bad on TV until you saw the rain pelting down on the running track, so you have to forgive the high error-count a touch.
But while France were rightly joyous at the end, I think it is fair to say they got lucky to a fair degree, and not simply because England were pretty woeful throughout, with Johnny May’s jet-propelled brace the exception.
Though, of course, France have to take a fair bit of credit for the favourites under-performing so badly. They were nuggety in true Sean Edwards style, and fairly disciplined, too.
I am particularly worried for the French set-piece going forward, though.
For a side with so many targets, their line-out was unconvincing – though England lost ball here, too, in the rain – and their scrum was second-best throughout (no matter what the BBC pundits said at half-time), and badly so when the subs came on.
And how Ollivon’s first try was given is beyond me. I didn’t think there was any doubt at all that he knocked it on.
Obviously, it is all not all doom and gloom, far from it, and I dare say we will get a far more adventurous performance in better weather (unless Storm Ciara swings south, and rain is forecast in Paris this weekend, too, so keep an eye out there), and it helps if you are playing Italy at home.
And an Italian side just thumped 42-0 in Cardiff, at that.
France may have lost in Rome in 2011 and 2013, but their home winning margins against Italy this century read 11-21-25-25-12-26-18-20-2-17-18. They got very lucky in a 23-21 win in 2016, but the last time they lost this fixture at home was in Grenoble in 1997.
So, looking at those scores, it comes as little surprise to see this weekend’s handicap line set around 25 and 26.
Actually, you could have reasonably expected the handicap to be set a touch higher, initially at least, given last weekend’s result in Paris and Cardiff.
But Italy were nowhere near as bad as their 42-0 score line suggests and their scrum, which got the better of Wales', could give the home side some trouble here. They even looked dangerous on occasions in the three-quarter line, and didn’t get much help from the referee in the first-half.
My gut instinct is to side against France in some shape or form in Sunday’s game, notwithstanding the fact I want, and expect, them to get a winning bonus point for my long-term positions.
I held on for the team news for as long as I could, but hopefully there won’t be that many shocks in the line-ups, if any, when they are finally announced.
Having seen my first-half handicap on bet on Italy +12 in Cardiff fail miserably, I am going to give them another spin on the same line, this time at a generally available +13, albeit to small stakes on what I found was another incredibly tricky round of games to call.
If it is wet, then the bet becomes ever more attractive, as do Italy with a 26-point start.
On to Saturday’s matches then, and three will become two – and maybe even one if it is a draw – in terms of potential Grand Slam winners as Ireland host Wales in the weekend opener in Dublin.
Once again, the market could have over-reacted a touch more than it has done to last weekend’s games, with Ireland 4/6 favourites (though they are bigger on Betfair) and asked to give away four points on the handicap.
Unfortunately, that seems a fair enough assessment, especially as I am not going overboard about Wales at the moment.
Keeping any side scoreless in a game of rugby union is a feat – though, of course, Italy could have easily taken three points on at least a couple of occasions at 21-0 – and Wales did all that was asked of them there, even if they left it until the 76th-minute to secure the bonus point.
They still looked a side on a learning curve with their attacking game, understandably so given the attempted switch in emphasis by the new management team, but you can’t argue with a "0" and they looked a very solid outfit, as per usual, with a bit of stardust thrown in by the likes of Dan Biggar and Josh Adams.
They wouldn’t have been happy with the way their scrum went but, then again, the Ireland eight got taken to the cleaners in the tight on a few occasions by Scotland, too.
Ireland were fortunate to come away with a 19-12 victory against the Scots, and it had definite shades of the France-England match, in which their defence in their own 22 won them the game, rather than any all-round excellence or attacking zest.
Scotland may just have been a lot better than certain people gave them credit for, though – having backed and tipped Ireland -13, I was at the front of that particularly costly queue – and of course Stuart Hogg dropping the ball over the try-line at 13-6 was a real killer.