Tony Calvin brings you his preview of this year's Natwest 6 Nations as his enthusiasm for France starts to wane.
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I’m pretty sure the players haven’t been doing a ‘Darius Vassell’ and trying to pop blood blisters on their toes with a power drill – who would have thought that would end badly? Nevertheless, you just wonder what has been happening in rugby union this autumn, given that they have been dropping like flies.
Well, I say that, but it isn’t hard to piece together, though the players clearly have been. The sheer size of the athletes these days, and the speed and dynamism of 18st+ giants, allied to a packed fixture schedule, are making the sport a brutal physical test at every impact point.
You don’t need to tell Maro Itoje that, as he had his jaw broken after a meeting of ‘minds’ with his England team-mate Mike Brown. He was back within a month though, probably sooner than Darius after his own version of a ‘Bosch’ encounter.
The attritional nature of modern-day rugby union has made this year’s NatWest 6 Nations very tough to call, with each country experiencing a plethora of big-name injuries – England and Wales have probably taken the biggest hit, but France and Ireland aren’t that far behind – that will test their squad-depth to the limit.
Down the line, with more injuries inevitably being picked up as the tournament progresses - and with officials erring on the side of caution regarding concussion, that aspect will claim plenty, too - some teams could be fielding virtual second XVs by rounds three or four. That is something you have factor into your long-range Six Nations betting, even if players will be returning from injuries, too.
Unfortunately, arbers don’t exist anymore, for obvious reasons, whatever you may be told – you need a strong, liquid exchange market and that rarely materialises until much nearer the event – and fortunately someone jumped in front of me looking for 14 about the French, so I gave up and took the bet down.
Just as well as France - who have drafted in former players Julien Bonnaire (line-out specialist – and he was superb with Clermont in this area as a player), Sebastien Bruno (scrum) and Jean-Baptiste Elissalde (threequarters) as new coach Jacques Brunel’s assistants - are now out to 22/1 with BoyleSports, and it is not hard to see why, given events in the past few weeks.
The main reason why I liked the French at that price is the fixture list that handed them home ties against market leaders England and Ireland, and the fact that recent history suggests that they go well in the tournament the year after a Lions tour. The logic for the latter being the best players among the four Home Nations don’t get a decent break.
France lost by only three to England, and 10 to Ireland, away last season and won the other three fixtures, and that post-Lions tour stat really is quite compelling.
They may have only finished third in 2014 but they won in 2010, 2006 and 2002 & 1998. That’s pretty tasty form.
However, recent events have rather ebbed away my enthusiasm for the French, with the injury to Morgan Parra – who I think has been the most consistent number nine in Europe for a decade – a hammer blow.
He is apparently ruled out of the opener with Ireland (though the fact that he is included in the squad suggests his persistent, niggling knee injury isn’t too bad, so let’s hope for a miracle recovery this weekend…) and that is very bad news when you consider that France look set to rely on either the inexperienced Toulon fly-half Anthony Belleau or the Bordeaux-Begles teenager Matthieu Jalibert at 10.
A rock-steady nine, with a brilliant all-round kicking game (he is deadly from the tee), would have been handy in the circumstances given the fresh-faced innocence immediately outside them.
They have also plenty of other injuries , perhaps negating that Lions factor, and have lost man-mountain centre Mathieu Bastareaud because of his potty mouth against Benetton (I will spare you the exact details of his ‘homophobic slur’ that cost him his place in the opening squad) and they appear to have made some massive calls in selection.
Now, I don’t think Louis Picamoles has been at the top of his game for Montpelier this season (though his club head the Top 14 table, even if they only won two of their six Champions Cup pool games) but leaving him out of the 32-man squad is a very ballsy call.
Probably a very bad one too, as he probably said himself in private after scoring two tries as his club won 30-29 at Clermont last weekend.
Everyone knows how they can click on their day – an enormous pack is a given, and I think they have the best hooker in the tournament in Guilhem Guirado – and the French do provide four of the Champions Cup quarter-finalists, But their playing depth isn’t as impressive as that European record suggests when it comes to the international stage, given the inordinate amount of foreigners in some clubs, and their squad underlines that.
You may have guessed but I have gone off them quite a bit of late - their squad depth really worries me the more I look, especially with that 23-23 home draw with Japan on their recent dance card - especially with a relatively healthy Ireland first up. I hope I am wrong because my money is already on.
At the time I backed France at 20/1, I also had a saver on Scotland at 11/1, and the latter is a price that remains available with Betfair and Paddy Power.
However, once again, injuries continue to rear their ugly heads here, too. And in this case ugly is the right word, as they are currently struggling to put together a front row of any note for their opening match against Wales In Cardiff, with seven players currently out in this area alone.
As we will come to, Wales are having an injury nightmare across the board, but they will be targeting the scrum as a big potential weakness for the Scots.
If Scotland can regroup and gain parity in this area then I don’t think that any side will fancy meeting them after the way they played in the autumn, being unfortunate to lose 22-17 to New Zealand before putting Australia to the sword 53-24 the following week.
They are the form team coming into this tournament, make no mistake, and maybe part of that success was the fact that they had only three players on the Lions tour. Well, basically two, as Stuart Hogg copped one early doors in New Zealand and was soon on his way home.
I love the fluidity of their back play and, even though they will be underdogs for three of their opening four fixtures as it stands, with their easiest game their last (away to Italy), then I can see them scaring the life out of all their opponents.
However, the hits keep on coming for Scotland too, and lock Richie Gray was ruled out of the opener last weekend. His work-rate in defence will be a massive loss for them.
Ireland in Dublin could be a step too far for them, but they are no forlorn hopes there if some those dainty front-rowers have returned to the fold by March.
