He said: "I think Ireland and Wales are going through something a bit of a transitional period, similar to Scotland.
"England and France undoubtedly look like the teams to beat but I'm afraid Scotland are looking at fourth, fifth and sixth.
"I know that sounds harsh and when I played I certainly never went into a season thinking like that.
"But while I'm still a passionate Scotland supporter this time I've got to lead my head rule my heart.
"They have shown in glimpses that they can play well but you need more than that to compete for a Six Nations title."