There are plenty of betting opportunities this weekend provided the weather continues to improve as we count down to Cheltenham with Grade One action at Ascot, a Grade Two hurdle at Wincanton, and Haydock staging the William Hill Grand National Trial.
Over 3 miles 4 1/2 furlongs there won’t be many more searching tests all season and the race traditionally provides a contender for the big race in a couple of months' time.
Alan King provides the favourite, Notachance, who followed up a pleasing seasonal debut win at Bangor with victory in Warwick’s Classic Chase five weeks ago. There’s very little to knock about him as he clearly jumps and stays very well. The only question being whether he is progressive enough to overcome a 7lbs impost from the handicapper for his latest success. He clearly handles soft ground and it’s hard to see him out of the places.
Runner-up there was Venetia Williams’ Achille who was returning from a 14-month absence when just touched off in the drive for the line. The two questions for me with him are the bounce factor and whether there is the improvement in an 11-year-old to win off a 4lbs higher mark, 9lbs higher than his last winning rating.
Enqarde, an improving seven-year-old gelding, has a nice profile for this race with form figures of 21U1 since joining Dr Richard Newland from France. There’s no suggestion he won't stay and he looked like he was going places when winning a touch comfortably at Ascot last time. For me the one doubt is his fall here in December's Tommy Whittle. Looking at his French form he’s jumped plenty of obstacles and that could well have been a blip, but I just have my doubts.
Lord Du Mesnil loves this course but hasn’t really been in as good form as he was when runner-up here off a 2lbs lower mark last year. Cloudy Glen is talented but difficult to predict, Perfect Candidate loves this track but is 14 now and surely something will be too good for him, while Potters Legend usually runs his race but looks to have nothing in hand off his rating and I’m not sure Captain Drake jumps well enough all the time to win this calibre of race.
Sojourn’s Carlisle win has been franked more than once and he ran really well in the Tommy Whittle when second to Sam's Adventure but I’d have liked to see him win that and I’m not sure the stable form is what it was in the early part of the season, though I do think the race should suit him and he’s another solid chance who will love testing conditions. He could be a similar price come the weekend.
From a value point of view at this stage the horse I like is Alex Hale’s 11-year-old FAGAN, second to Unowhatimeanharry in the Albert Bartlett five years ago when trained by Gordon Elliott but seemingly revitalised by a switch to these shores when hosing up at Newbury just over four weeks ago.
The same connections won this last year with a similar type and, while he’s been put up 10lbs for that success he’d have easily won with a stone more on his back and was rated 149, 7lbs higher at his peak as a hurdler.
Clearly the aim has been to win this and at 16/1 I think he’s some value.
Earlier on the card, the William Hill Rendlesham Hurdle, a trial for the Stayers’ Hurdle itself, sees the return of current title-holder Lisnagar Oscar, who will surely need this first run back after a wind operation under his Grade One penalty.
