- looks the type to improve for stepping up in trip and nothing wrong with his maiden form either. Ground could be an issue but huge price
relishes soft ground and big improver on the surface. Stays well and worth forgiving last run now she returns to ideal conditions
- another filly that should enjoy running on this surface and has ideal draw, too, could get on a real roll on stands' rail
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The rain came down in significant fashion at Goodwood on Wednesday and though there’s now a dry forecast through to Saturday, Thursday’s runners, at least, will have to have the tools to handle really testing ground.
Connections of Churchill, who won a Classic on yielding, thought the ground too soft for the son of Galileo in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes, but, bafflingly, not stablemate Lancaster Bomber, a son of War Front who needs it rattling fast.
Gleneagles was hardly seen when his career nosedived, so it is with hope we don’t see a similar scenario with Churchill, a horse that looked so promising when winning two Classics in the spring.
Hopefully we don’t have any problems with Winter running in the Qatar Nassau Stakes, as she’s also a dual-Classic winner and her presence in Thursday’s feature makes it an excellent renewal.
This is her first go at the trip, though, so whether connections will be happy to let her take her chance remains to be seen. If she does run, she could be worth taking on in what will be the stiffest test of stamina she’s faced by far.
The one that punters have unsurprisingly come for is Sobetsu, Charlie Appleby’s Group One Prix Saint-Alary winner at Deauville in May (see YouTube video below). She handled softer ground well that day and drops back to 10 furlongs following a below-par run in the Oaks.
She’s interesting, but the 16/1 quotes available on Wednesday afternoon have long gone and she’s generally 8/1 now. I wouldn’t put you off any double-figure prices about her, but the market is a bit messy at the moment and with the potential for a big Rule 4 I’ll concentrate on the undercard.
Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +397.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).
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Posted at 1700 BST on 02/08/17.
Updated at 1716 BST with Megan Lily bet