- looks very well treated on best jumps form, especially now he tackles a real stamina test on the Flat

- His Goodwood win from earlier in the season worked out really well and trainer has a great record when running horses out of the weights

- Looks really well handicapped over 1m4f after nothing went right for him over 10f at Chester latest and stable do really well here

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Rain is forecast at Goodwood on Wednesday and it looks like it’s going to arrive late morning. It could be a very wet afternoon so an ease in the going looks likely, although such a scenario shouldn’t bother either of the big two in the Qatar Sussex Stakes (3.35).

Both Ribchester and Churchill are highly effective on slower ground, so that variable won’t be a deciding factor. Instead, the poser for punters is whether Churchill can bounce back to top form after being beaten in the St James’s Palace Stakes. And if he can, is that good enough to beat Ribchester?

Even though Churchill won on good to firm ground in the 2000 Guineas, I thought the fast conditions were a viable excuse for him at Royal Ascot. It was very quick, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to top form on the softer surface.

Ribchester is a top-class opponent, but the 7lb weight-for-age allowance has seen three-year-olds dominate this race in recent years and, at the prices, I’m leaning towards the number one Ballydoyle contender in what does look a two-horse race, although French raider Zelzal does bring a completely new line of form into things.

It’s not a Value Bet kind of race, though, and neither is the Molecomb, so the focus is on the opening two handicaps with the second contest, the Better Odds With Matchbook Betting Exchange Handicap, having a really nice punting shape to it.

Secret Advisor heads the market and he is an improving horse, but he was beaten off a 15lb lower mark in two handicaps in May and he has been dealt a wide draw here.

I’m keen to take him on with a couple of horses including LONDINIUM at 11/1 (bet365, Coral, 10s general) for Mark Johnston, who has won this race three times in the last nine years.

The son of New Approach looks let in lightly here off 84, as he was beaten a head in a Ripon handicap off 81 on his only previous start at the distance, and that was his seasonal reappearance and first since being gelded.

He probably would’ve improved significantly from that performance on his second start of the campaign but nothing went right for him off a muddling gallop at Chester over 10 furlongs. He was slowly away, raced keenly, found trouble and then ran on for third when they sprinted for home.

He’s miles better than that and it wouldn’t be a surprise were he to show it at Goodwood considering his yard, who always do so well here. He was the outsider of the three Johnston horses earlier on Tuesday, but he's second choice of the three now and is still worth backing at any double-figure prices.

Ben Linfoot's Value Bet aim: The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK. Running total: +388.39pts to advised stakes/prices (from inception of Value Bet column in January 2010 to current).

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Posted at 1700 BST on 01/08/17.