Handicap Hints: Big jumps races on the horizon at Aintree, Cheltenham and Newbury

Major jumps handicaps. They are going to be the focal point of this column for the next six months or so and, given the nature of such races, it’s probably going to be a bit of a rollercoaster. Starting in a more formal capacity from November 5 (following a last-ditch attempt at some half-term sunshine), I’ll be looking to shed some light on the latest handicap developments, highlight a few significant ratings-movers, and take a closer look for any antepost market clues.

The race on everyone’s bingo card this time of year is Cheltenham’s Paddy Power Gold Cup (Saturday November 15) and while we won’t even have the official entries until this time next week – and the weights to pore over on bonfire night the Wednesday after that – plans are clearly already being formed, weather permitting of course.

Last year’s winner Il Ridoto has recently got a tidy run under his belt, as Paul Nicholls might call it, and he will look perfectly well-handicapped returning for another crack at the race off just 1lb higher having been left alone by the assessor for his comeback outing on quick enough ground at Chepstow’s season opener.

Dan Skelton has nominated the race as the ideal target for Bryan Drew’s mare Panic Attack, and it’s not hard to envisage her being given another spin over hurdles as she’s 10lb higher than when winning (with something to spare, admittedly) over fences at Windsor in January and they won’t be wanting that mark to edge up any higher before the principal goal.

That one’s stablemate Riskintheground is on the radar too. A son of Presenting who seems fine on decent conditions as well as being a soft-ground winner in his youth, he really got his mojo back last spring and there was loads to like about his defeat of the 151-rated Blueking d’Oroux when jumping accurately and making all in a 2m5f Intermediate Chase on his Newton Abbot return.

Riskintheground gave the Nicholls-trained favourite 12lb in weight on the day, the pair pulling 29 lengths clear of the third, so a revised rating of 142 doesn’t look beyond the eight-year-old and don’t forget just how effective prominent tactics have been in the Paddy Power over the years.

The betting for the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle remains in its infancy but it’s no great shock to see Welsh ‘Champion Hurdle’ winner Celtic Dino to the fore as while hardly all that impressive on the eye after bundling the final flight, he got away with just a 4lb rise after defying joint-top weight at Chepstow and seems sure to progress a good deal further for trainer Sam Thomas this season.

Speaking in his recent Stable Tour, Skelton – who has won the Greatwood in the past with North Hill Harvey and West Cork – interestingly left little doubt as to that being the big, early-season objective for new recruit Mirabad, a course winner for Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole last December.

Before all that, we have Aintree’s Old Roan this Sunday and the equine headache that is Ahoy Senor will top the weights after Lucinda Russell confirmed his likely involvement.

It almost goes without saying he’ll be vulnerable despite a sliding mark (162) and Imperial Saint – the youngster of the party at the age of seven – looks an obvious candidate given his course form of 1112, the latest second coming in the 3m William Hill Handicap Chase at the National meeting when last sighted.

Sticking with Aintree, and another race for which the weights are now published, there’s a healthy-looking 35 entries for the Grand Sefton over the big(ger) fences on November 8.

This market is over a week old now and one who has attracted a bit of cash is the Ben Pauling-trained Your Darling. I’ve got high hopes this could be a really good year for Pauling, who is among that wave of younger British trainers who really do ought to be – in his own words – putting up a greater fight against the more established operations, as well as the Irish powerhouses later into the campaign.