Perhaps a little surprising is that only three recent winners have come into the race with experience over the unique National fences to their name, and one of those fell at the first attempt.
Tiger Roll had obviously won on his first go over fences prior to following up for a famous double in 2019, and the 2017 hero One For Arthur had finished fifth in the Becher Chase earlier in the same season he won.
Pineau De Re was the horse who tipped up in the Becher the year before he entered Aintree folklore in 2014, and aside from this trio the winners have been having their first look at the Grand National course, which must bode well for Corach Rambler, Mr Incredible, Gaillard Du Mesnil, Le Milos and Rachael Blackmore's mount Aint That A Shame, among others.
It almost goes without saying when referring to a handicap chase over a distance just beyond four and a quarter miles, but stamina is a prerequisite.
However, it’s well worth pointing out that three of the most recent 10 National winners had yet to win a chase over 3m or beyond, Rule The World something of an anomaly as he'd actually not won a chase of any description.
Minella Times had only won a couple of times over fences, those races run over 2m4f and 2m6f, while Noble Yeats’ sole success as a chaser was achieved over the extended 2m2f at Galway the previous October.
So while the proven staying chase form of Gaillard Du Mesnil, Delta Work and Galvin will be highlighted as a significant positive, perhaps a horse like Vanillier fits the mould of a more recent National winner as his stamina is hardly in question from his hurdling days, and he could prove to be well handicapped now upped significantly in trip as a chaser, his only success over fences so far coming at 2m6f.
There is no perfect formula (hold the front page!) but the general trend - since the considerable adaptations were made to the fences and overall distance reduced by a couple of furlongs - sees younger, less exposed horses taking Grand National glory and while it's a 7-3 split in the last 10 when it comes to carrying under-over 11-00 in weight, a relatively low rating and an improving horse is always preferable in just about every handicap race in all forms of the game.
With eight-year-olds (and the odd seven-year-old) doing so well in recent years, it's tempting to stick to that age bracket, and the eyecatching eight-year-old with a good number of chase starts (9) to his name also 'qualifies' on account of being a proven stayer, having won the 2021 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle.
VANILLIER, set for a first spin in the National, is also rated in the 140s (147, just 2lb higher than his Irish mark) and is around the ideal price too at 20/1 generally.
He comes into the race on the back of an encouraging, half-length second to solid Graded-race yardstick Kemboy in the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, which has been a decent prep for Irish horses over the years, and on top of this his trainer Gavin Cromwell has had nine horses finish inside the first three from just 14 runners at Aintree over the years.
Published at 1115 BST on 14/04/23
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