The ITV cameras return to the home of jumps racing this weekend as Cheltenham stage their Showcase meeting.
There was a theme on the Saturday fixture of this meeting last year – that theme being Irish-trained winners, with the first four races claimed by Ian Patrick Donoghue, John McConnell, Henry de Bromhead and Gordon Elliott. A quick scan through the entries and it’s not hard to see a similar scenario this weekend with another strong raiding party heading over.
A slightly surprising omission from that list is Gavin Cromwell, a trainer synonymous with Cheltenham winners in recent seasons, and it’s his sole entry in the William Hill Bet Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase at 2.20, MALINA GIRL, who is catching my eye at the early prices.
Don’t let last’s years blank on this card fool you, this is a meeting Cromwell targets, and targets effectively, with a 31% strike rate at Cheltenham in October over the last five seasons, and Malina Girl is a mare with a terrific record at this track.
A winner here in December 2023, by a comfortable 10 lengths from Cloudy Glen, she was an excellent third in the Ultima at The Festival behind runaway winner Myretown, who looks destined for big things this season. She is three pounds better off with The Changing Man, who finished just ahead of her there and is half her price on Saturday.
She’s a strong stayer at this trip – her win here two years ago came over two furlongs further and she was strong at the finish in the Ultima, so every drop of rain that falls during the week will be in her favour. It’s Good to Soft ground currently but anywhere between 10-20mm of rain is expected between now and racing.
I love the fact she’s had a prep run over hurdles last month too, which should put her spot on and give her a fitness edge over the majority of her rivals as they make their seasonal returns. A mare with strong course form, from a yard with a good record at this meeting, and who has had a prep run over hurdles to tee her up for this race. I like her chances at 14/1.
I have to touch on Inch House, too, who is heading into this season a very well handicapped horse if able to get back on track after a break. He looked a chaser to follow when winning back-to-back Newbury handicaps for Jonjo O'Neill and was an eye-catching second to a certain Stumptown over this trip at Cheltenham in January last year.
He lost his way after, failing to complete in his last three starts, including two of those with his new trainer, Paul Nicholls, but if a good break and a proper pre-season at Ditcheat can see him bounce back to something like his best, he can do some damage for the 14-time champion trainer form a mark of 132.
The 25/1 on offer is tempting, but he has another engagement on the same day at Kelso, so I’m happy to hang fire for now. One to revisit later in the week, and to follow throughout the season.
The Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle at 2.55 was won by Gordon Elliott last year with The Wallpark, who went on to finish third in the Stayers’ Hurdle, and while I’m not saying he has anything of that calibre in here again, it’s his two entries who interest me most.
Winning Smut is following a similar path to last year’s winner, coming here after landing the odds at Galway last time, but he seems best suited to good ground, so the forecast isn’t looking ideal for this son of Yeats.
SERMANDZARAK on the other hand has two wins on heavy ground to his name, so conditions will hold no fears however bad they get, and he could have quite a bit in hand from his opening handicap mark of 134 now stepping up to three miles for the first time.
A bumper winner at Punchestown, it took him four runs over hurdles to belatedly open his account in this sphere, but he did so at good style at Navan in March (on heavy ground) where stamina again looked his forte.
Indeed, he’s looked an out-and-out stayer on all evidence so far and could be open to considerable improvement stepping up in trip on his handicap debut. After all, this would be just his fifth start over hurdles.
We’re taking a bit of a chance on running plans with no jockey booked yet, but Sermandzarak has no other entries at this stage and the 12/1 on offer now could look rather big come Saturday should this young, unexposed staying hurdler turn up.
Good luck with whatever you're backing this weekend, and I'll be back on Saturday to look at Sunday's excellent Old Roan Chase card at Aintree and the action from Wincanton.
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