In the minds of bookmakers and punters, at the time of writing, he’s not the most likely winner of the Grade 1 Betfair Ascot Chase this Saturday with Fakir D’Oudairies the 5/4 favourite against 5/2 Shishkin.
Those last two below-par runs, the only times he has been seen in the last 11 months, are rightly at the forefront of everyone’s minds.
But he could bounce back. And Fakir D’Oudairies is the perfect horse for Henderson to test his newly-tweaked Shishkin against. After 77 days off, over a new trip, after a wind op, there’s talk of a tongue-tie, too, on what could be spring-like ground, Shishkin lines up against a brilliantly consistent horse but not a consistently brilliant one.
Joseph O’Brien’s eight-year-old has won four Grade 1s and has registered a Timeform adjusted rating of 177 four times, his best number.
For comparison Shishkin returned no figure in the Champion Chase and 167+ in the Tingle Creek. But at his best he ran to 181+ twice and 190 at Ascot against Energumene. At his best Fakir D’Oudairies can’t live with him, but you can almost set your watch by last year’s winner of this race so he’s a super barometer.
If the tweaks work and Shishkin travels with his old verve, proving himself at the intermediate distance at the same time, and giving Fakir D’Oudairies an honest beating, the general 4/1 quotes for the Ryanair Chase will be long gone. In an Allaho-less year, he’ll be clear favourite. A top of his game Shishkin looks the one horse who could blow that race apart.
So perhaps Henderson’s eye is right. Maybe he did need a trip all along. After all he’s won a point-to-point and is a half-brother to a 3m1f hunter chase winner.
And he was also one of two sons of Sholokhov that took the 2021 Cheltenham Festival by storm. They had the racing world at their hooves back then. The other, Bob Olinger, looks a shadow of his former self. We haven’t got enough evidence to say the same about Shishkin yet, but this weekend is an absolutely massive one for him.
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February 1 - What are the main Dublin Racing Festival pointers?
January 25 - Trials Day: Who will be the Festival plunge horse?
January 18 - Can Dan Skelton step up at this year's Festival?
January 11 - Who is Willie's Sporting Life Arkle number one?
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