Judging by previous Saturdays this season, it would be no surprise if Nicholls dominates the headlines again at Newbury this weekend.
If we say the season proper started on October 1, his Saturday strike-rate this campaign is 30 winners from 113 at 26.55%, and he’s had a double or better at nine Saturday meetings in that period.
That’s nothing new for a master trainer and placer but in recent seasons that week-to-week domination has mattered little when it comes to Cheltenham. And his Festival squad again this year is more likely to resemble his teams of 2020 and 2021, number-wise at least, at around the 20 mark, rather than the 30-plus horses he used to take in the aforementioned Kauto Star era.
Heading it will be Hermes Allen, an 11/4 chance for the Ballymore. He’ll be aiming to break the curse of Challow Hurdle winners who are now 0/19 in the Ballymore following the reversals of stablemates Bravemansgame and Stage Star the last few years.
Nicholls will be hoping the Irish challenge isn’t quite as strong as it has been in this division, but at least his horse doesn’t look a one-dimensional mud lover like so many Challow Hurdle winners have been in the past.
He looks the real deal, his Challow form already boosted by Passing Well and Kilbeg King, who were miles behind him at Newbury and, unlike Bravemansgame and Stage Star before him, he’s already proven at Cheltenham.
As Festival flag-bearers go he’s not a bad one but a lot is resting on his shoulders. Bravemansgame at 8/1 for the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup, Tahmuras at 10/1 for the Sky Bet Supreme and Stage Star at 12/1 for the Turners are his next best-fancied chances in the Grade 1s.
A few others are on the periphery, but it’s those Saturday handicappers that he might need to step up in races like the Fred Winter, Grand Annual and County Hurdle if Hermes Allen doesn’t do the business.
It’s not going to be easy for Nicholls to get off the Festival cold list, then, but it’s unusual to keep such a good trainer down for this long. Here’s hoping he can conjure one or two up to beat the Irish, as the Festival could do with a hearty celebration from a man who used to train Cheltenham winners for fun.
February 1 - What are the main Dublin Racing Festival pointers?
January 25 - Trials Day: Who will be the Festival plunge horse?
January 18 - Can Dan Skelton step up at this year's Festival?
January 11 - Who is Willie's Sporting Life Arkle number one?
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at and .