I wouldn’t be quick to rule out Morando, either, who has stamina queries but also two standout career-best efforts; his six-length Cumberland Lodge demolition on soft ground at this track and an eight-length verdict over Kew Gardens himself in testing conditions in the one-mile-five-furlongs-and-a-bit-more Ormonde Stakes at Chester.
None of these rivals have Stradivarius-inflicted scars. And while he has won off a 13-day break before, this season, at Ascot, in the Gold Cup, that was a very different scenario, coming off a prep run after a long break.
His class may help him get away with it on Saturday, but there’s no doubting there is an air of vulnerability about his chance now and that doesn’t seem to be factored into his odds quite enough.
The last two years the Champions Sprint has had winners at 28/1 and 33/1 and largely unfamiliar testing conditions have played their part in the upsets.
This year we have a red-hot favourite in Dream Of Dreams, a six-year-old who seems to have found a new level of consistency since a gelding operation.
A head second to Hello Youmzain in the Diamond Jubilee at this track at the Royal meeting, he’s two from two since then, a seven-length romp over seven furlongs in the Hungerford Stakes preceding his Sprint Cup victory – a first and long overdue Group One success.
The question now is whether he can back it up. We know he likes Ascot, we know he doesn’t mind soft ground and we know he gets on well with Oisin Murphy, but there is a glimmer of hope for his rivals.
In the last two renewals of this race the son of Dream Ahead has been soundly beaten. He finished 13th in 2018 and 16th last year and while those races came at the end of busier campaigns it could be that he’s just had enough by this time of year.
On top of this it’s been a slow October for Sir Michael Stoute. While he flew along in August and September with monthly strike-rates of 21 and 28 per cent, winners have been hard to come by this month as three victories from 29 runners at 10% suggests.
Hortzadar has a central draw and, while he looks more in the handicapper’s grip after wins off 91 and 94 in August and September (he’s now off 98, a mark from which he was beaten off at York last time out), the soft ground and a big field should also play to his strengths.
O’Meara has booked straight-track maestro Jamie Spencer for the ride.
Both are interesting, but Orbaan makes more appeal and the general 16/1 does not look bad at all for the number one pick from a stable that have strong and recent previous in this race.
Posted at 1540 BST on 15/10/2020
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