UFC 262 promises to answer some burning questions regarding the future of the Lightweight division, which has always been one of the most competitive in the entire sport. Things have really heated up since Khabib Nurmagomedov relinquished his title last October, with every fighter in the top 15 staking their claim to become king of the division. Michael Chandler and Charles Oliveira were ultimately selected to compete for the throne, in what will be a hotly contested fight.
Before the main event, Beneil Dariush and Tony Ferguson will test their mettle against one another for the right to challenge next for the belt. Elsewhere, Viviane Araujo and Katlyn Chookagian square off in an intriguing bout in the Flyweight division, whilst Andre Muniz and Jacare Souza feature in a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu showdown of the highest level.
Saturday, May 15 — although it'll be Sunday in the UK
Coverage is live in the UK on BT Sport 1, from 0100 BST on Sunday May 16
MICHAEL CHANDLER announced himself to UFC fans in explosive fashion with his first-round knockout of Dan Hooker in January, proving to many that there are other martial artists outside of the UFC who can claim victory against the organisation’s elite.
Many UFC fans will be excited to see Chandler face off against Charles Oliveira, who has had somewhat of a Cinderella story in his career so far. Do Bronx currently holds the record for most submission victories in UFC history, as well as being tied for the most finishes. The Brazilian has been slowly improving from fight to fight and excelled in his last bout against arguably the second best Lightweight of all time, Tony Ferguson.
While Oliveira’s striking has come on leaps and bounds since his UFC debut, his arsenal of submissions continue to be his greatest strength. Unfortunately for him, Chandler has never been submitted in his career, and his high-level wrestling and scrambling explosiveness have made him a hard fighter to control on the mat. The American may struggle to maintain this in the latter half of the fight, but the opening three rounds should see him stay relatively safe in the grappling department.
All attention will therefore turn to the striking exchanges between both fighters in the early goings, which is where I expect Chandler to take control of this fight. The biggest issue that has plagued Oliveira throughout his UFC career is his inability to deal with pressuring power punchers, which is exactly the style the American brings to the cage. Whenever Oliveira finds himself trapped against the fence, he is prone to absorbing big strikes that he reacts badly to. If Chandler can use good footwork to cut off the cage, then he has the potential to end the fight with a single shot, just as he did in his UFC debut against Hooker.
Although Chandler boasts good cardio for someone of his stature and physique, his explosiveness does not translate well in the championship rounds. For that reason, I believe his most likely win condition will revolve around finding the finish in the first few rounds, even more so against a fighter that struggles with menacing forward pressure.
There may be value in betting the American as a slight underdog, but considering 54 of their 65 combined fights have ended inside three rounds, I think backing CHANDLER TO WIN IN ROUNDS 1, 2 OR 3 at 23/10 is a great value bet for the main event.
UFC 262’s Co-Main event is a fascinating bout between two of the most violent and exciting fighters on the UFC’s roster. Beneil Dariush is currently riding a six-fight winning streak and has never looked better, winning by stoppage on four occasions. Conversely, TONY FERGUSON has suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in his career, having previously been undefeated for almost seven years, winning 12 fights in succession.
This is undoubtedly the most important fight of Ferguson's career, as a loss here would remove him from the title picture for good. Despite absorbing a lot of damage in the first loss to Justin Gaethje and then being outgrappled by Charles Olivieira, El Cucuy claims to have made the appropriate adjustments needed to return to his former glory, having worked with legendary boxing coach Freddie Roach in preparation for Saturday night’s showdown with Dariush.
The boxing skills of El Cucuy will be his greatest weapon if he is to win against the Iranian Dariush, as the latter has serious durability issues. MMA fans are often quick to forget, but many thought Dariush’s best days were behind him after suffering knockout losses to Edson Barbosa and Alexander Hernandez in quick succession. He has stayed conscious in his last six wins since then, but was rocked hard by Drew Dober and Drakkar Klose during this run. Ferguson is not the heaviest hitter, but he has nasty elbows and uppercuts that could certainly cause problems if he connects clean, as well as the ability to end fights in one knockout blow.
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