The first of the marquee sports of the Olympic Games is swimming with no fewer than 35 golds up for grabs. Michael Phelps has long retired but the sport’s outstanding woman, KATIE LEDECKY, is still around. I say still around, she’s only 24...
But she has a younger and faster rival in the form of Ariarne Titmus who stunned Ledecky in the 400m freestyle at the 2019 World Championships. There were mitigating circumstances with the American star laid low by a stomach virus upon arrival in Gwangju which eventually saw her pull out of the 1500 free final and the 200 free heats later in the meet.
Ledecky was below her best at the US trials but she was taking in training swims during that meet. Titmus showed her wellbeing with the second fastest 400 free in history - behind Ledecky - at the Australian trials.
In the men’s 400 free, Elijah Winnington has been chalked up as the even-money favourite. This is one of the very first finals and could give us a pointer as to how strong this Australian squad really is.
There will be a new champion with London 2012 gold medallist Sun Yang banned for doping offences and Rio 2016 champion Mack Horton failing to qualify. I’ll be taking the youngster on with MARTIN MALYUTIN who’ll be representing ROC due to Russia’s suspension from global competition.
I was actually looking at Malyutin more for the 200 free, but his times are strong and he has excellent pace judgment going by his 200/400 freestyle double at the European Championships. At 10/1 with Ladbrokes/Coral, he’s a fair old price.
By the way, I did see Ladbrokes/Coral pricing up the men’s 4x200m freestyle with Australia at even money and Great Britain 2/1 second best. I thought GB would be clear favourites with Scott and Dean leading the charge. Someone clearly agreed with me as that market is no longer live.
I’m also opposing Australia’s wonderfully-named Zac Stubblety-Cook in the 200m breaststroke. He was fourth at the World Championships behind ANTON CHUPKOV who retained his crown in a new world record. Stubblety-Cook has lowered his personal best by a second in the last couple of months, but he may have to go quicker still in Tokyo and I’m not convinced he will.
Chupkov and Stubblety-Cook are vying for favouritism along with home favourite Shoma Sato, but I think the ROC swimmer should be approaching his peak at 24 and I’m a backer at 5/2 with Sky Bet.
My final tip is in the women’s 100m butterfly where reigning champion and world record holder Sarah Sjostrom won’t be at her best after breaking her elbow falling on ice in February. She now has a metal plate and six screws in her arm and has struggled in the fly since her return. If she makes the podium, it will most likely be in the free than the fly.
Sjostrom was beaten at the 2019 Worlds by Canada’s MAGGIE MACNEIL with Australia’s Emma McKeon taking bronze. However, the market is headed by Torri Huske, who came from nowhere to set a national record at the US trials, and Zhang Yufei, who went even quicker with 55.62 for an Asian record at the Chinese trials.
Zhang has improved for switching from the 200 fly in which she finished sixth in Rio. This will be 18-year-old Huske’s first major global competition after her five junior world titles in 2019.
There is a chance that Huske could be the next Ledecky or Missy Franklin (although Franklin did win world titles before shining at London 2012). But MacNeil has already shown herself to be a woman for the big occasion and BoyleSports’ price of 9/2 is too big to ignore.
Posted at 1210 BST on 22/07/21
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